PickDawgz review: free picks up front, paid cappers behind them

Two sites in one

The front of PickDawgz is free: game previews and picks for the NFL, college football, baseball, both kinds of basketball, hockey, UFC, soccer, tennis, golf and more, with the site saying it gives out "a limited amount of free picks per day". Behind that is the paid side, where about two dozen handicappers sell single plays, packages and passes. The terms say the site is owned and run by Dawn Patrol LLC. The about page is a short note signed "Mitch", with email addresses and no history, so I can't tell you how long it has been going.

The prices are on the page, which I like. On the day I read it, most single plays were $25 to $40, a few packages ran $45 to $65, and one capper's all-access passes were $90 for 3 days, $170 for 7 and $250 for 30. The terms say the company doesn't process recurring purchases. You buy a stretch and it ends.

The guarantee is credit

Packages labelled with the credit guarantee give you a credit for the full price if the package doesn't turn a profit, counting every pick as a separate bet unless the title says parlay. The FAQ gives the example plainly: a $39.95 package that loses gets you $39.95 to spend on the site. Credits expire 9 months after they're issued, and the terms say they have "no redeemable value" other than more picks. All sales are final.

That's a fair rule as far as it goes. But a credit is the shop paying you in its own goods. If the capper is bad, the credit buys you more of him.

What the units really are

Read the leaderboard closely. The heading says it is "based on a base bet of $100 each". The top line on the day I read it was a capper at 19 and 9 over 30 days for "+941 units". Nineteen wins at $100 a bet can't make 941 units. They can make $941. So what the board calls units is dollars at $100 a play, and 941 of them is 9.4 units in the way everyone else counts.

That matters when the home page says "+3,738 units won last 7 days" in big type. If that figure is counted the same way as the board, it's $3,738 at $100 a bet, or about 37 units, and the page doesn't say whether it's one capper or all of them added together. Not nothing, and nothing like what the number looks like at a glance.

The board also doesn't say whether the $100 is risked or to win, or what price each pick is graded at. The FAQ has a sensible answer to "what if my odds are different": don't bet a line much worse than the capper's. That tells me the picks come with a number, but I'd want the number printed on the graded record too, with the time it was posted.

The pick write-ups are sales copy, streaks and all ("7-0 RUN", "14-3 RUN"), and they're the capper's own. A short streak tells you almost nothing. A coin-flipper makes 7 in a row about once in 128 tries, and with two dozen cappers each posting a few plays a day, somebody is always on one.

What I'd check

Before buying, I'd watch one capper's free picks for a month and write down the line and the time each was posted, then compare it with the line at kickoff. The closing line value guide explains why that test beats any won-lost record over a short run. I'd also ask support who grades the picks and whether the leaderboard counts every premium play, the losers in packages included.

Then the fee. Say a capper wins 55 percent at -110. Each bet to win $100 is worth about $5.50 on average, so a $25 play needs you betting around $450 to win on it just to pay for itself. On a $250 monthly pass you'd need about 45 such bets at $100, or fewer bigger ones, before you were even.

Whatever you buy, bet it at the same small share of your bankroll as everything else. No picks service takes the risk out of a bet, and the bankroll guide says how I'd size it.

The free picks cost you nothing but your attention. Spend that first.