Picking the best sports handicapper
The best sports handicapper for you is the one whose picks pay for themselves at the stakes you actually bet. Most bettors never do that sum before they subscribe. Here it is, and the rest of what I'd check before handing over a card number.
The sum nobody does
A pick package is a bet on the capper, and it has a price. So before the record, the patter or the guarantee, I'd work out what the package has to win just to pay for itself.
At -110 you need to win 52.38 percent of your bets to break even. Every point above that is your edge, and it's thinner than it looks. Say a capper really does hit 55 percent over the long run. On a $50 bet that's worth about $2.50 a pick to you, on average. A $99 monthly package then needs about 40 of his picks just to cover the subscription, before you've made a cent. At 53 percent the same bet is worth 59 cents, and it takes about 168 picks a month.
| If his picks win | Worth to you per $50 bet at -110 | Picks to cover $99 a month |
|---|---|---|
| 52.38% | nothing | never |
| 53% | $0.59 | about 168 |
| 55% | $2.50 | about 40 |
Bet $20 a pick and every figure in the last column goes up two and a half times. That's the whole problem with paid picks for a small bettor. The price is fixed and the edge scales with your stake, so the service that makes sense for someone betting $500 a game can be a sure loser for someone betting $20.
Claims that rule a capper out
I wouldn't look any further at a service that does any of these:
- Quotes a win rate with no record behind it. "68 percent winners" means nothing without the picks, dated before the games, and graded at the price you could actually have got.
- Picks its own sample. Last week's run, "this season in college football", "our top plays". Ask for everything, losers included.
- Leaves out the odds. A record of winners and losers says nothing about money. Ten winners at -250 and ten losers is a losing month.
- Guarantees anything. Nobody can guarantee a sports result. A "guarantee" is a free extension of the same picks, which costs the capper nothing.
- Pushes you to decide today. A good record will still be good next week.
Our handicapper reviews check each service against these, and the ATB Verified page sets out what a record has to show before we'd call it checked.
Trying one without paying for it
Most cappers give some picks away, and that's the cheap test. Track them yourself: the pick, the price at the time it was posted, and the result. Then compare the price he took with the line when the game started, because a capper who keeps beating the closing number is doing something real, and one who doesn't is guessing in public. The free picks page shows how to read them.
Give it a few months, not a weekend. A capper can look brilliant over twenty picks by luck alone, and so can you.
Your side of it
If the sums still work after all that, set the stake you'll bet on his picks before you subscribe, and keep it to the same 1 or 2 percent of your bankroll you'd bet on your own. Don't raise it because you've paid for the information. And if you enjoy picking games yourself, I'd keep doing it. You're not above buying picks, and you're not beneath making your own. Just know what each one costs you.