Political betting sites

Who deals politics at all

Plenty of regulated books won't take a bet on an election, and the ones that do decide which races they'll deal. The offshore books are more willing, which is why most of the sites in the list below are offshore. Whether you may use one depends on where you live, and an offshore book sits outside your own regulator whatever its site says. The offshore sportsbooks page explains what that costs you if something goes wrong.

The list shows the books we've reviewed whose own sites list politics among their markets, A to Z. A book whose review doesn't say is left out, not ruled out, so it may deal politics and we simply haven't seen it.

How a political line moves

A game has a final whistle. An election has a campaign, and I've watched political lines move on polls, on news and, above all, on where the money goes. A presidential market takes far more money from casual bettors than any game in a normal week, and most of it backs the candidate the bettor likes. A book knows that and shades the favorite's price on the popular side, the same way it shades a famous football team.

So I'd read a political price as a price, not as a forecast. If you think a candidate is a 60 percent chance and the book has him at -200, which needs 66.7 percent to break even, there is no bet, however sure you feel.

The rules decide the winner

The part people skip is the settlement rule. Read it before the bet, because elections end in ways games don't.

• What counts as the result: the vote count on the night, the certified result, or the person who takes office
• What happens to the bet if a candidate withdraws, or the race is called and then challenged
• Whether the book can void the market, and when

A book can also close a market early or void bets placed once the result was effectively known. That rule is fair, and it is why the house rules page is worth ten minutes before you bet anything that isn't a game.

Your side of it

Political markets run for months, so your stake is tied up the whole time and the book's cut is wider than on a side, as it is on any futures board. I'd bet small, shop the price at two books, and keep politics in the same 1 or 2 percent of the bankroll as everything else. The candidate you're sure of is the one to stake least on.