WagerTalk review: a big roster of cappers sold by the play, with a guarantee paid in credit

How it sells picks

WagerTalk is a storefront for handicappers. The site's own count is 33 cappers, and each one sells his picks by the play or by the day. On the day I read it, single plays ran from $15 to $25, a capper's 3-day pass was $69, and a "Weekend Warrior" pass for every Saturday and Sunday football play from one capper was $49. Every listing comes with a headline written to make you buy now: "SIZZLING 10-0", "AMAZING 29-12 RUN", "UNDER 1 HOUR REMAINING".

The other way in is Flex Picks. You buy days, and each day you choose one handicapper and get all his picks for that day. The page lists $39 for a day, $59 for 3 days, $69 for 7, $199 for 30, $499 for 90 and $1,299 for a year, each shown against a higher crossed-out price. You can skip days, and you can switch cappers until the first play is released. (One paragraph says you can schedule a week ahead, another says four weeks. Ask before you plan a month.)

Plays are rated by percent, 3%, 4%, 5%, and the 5% plays are sold as the best bets. I've never liked the percent rating. A capper who calls one play 5% and another 3% is telling you how to size your bets, and if his 5% plays are graded bigger, his record reflects his sizing as much as his picking.

What the guarantee is

Most single plays have a second price with a guarantee option: $23 instead of $15, $38 instead of $25. The FAQ says that if the picks on a day bought with the guarantee don't show an overall profit, "the paid cash value" comes back as a credit on your account for a future purchase. So you pay about half again up front, and if you lose, you get more picks, not your money. Everything else is covered by the refund policy, which says all sales are final once a product has been bought, delivered or viewed.

A guarantee like that costs the seller very little. If his picks are coin flips, he refunds about half of those days in credit, keeps the extra he charged on all of them, and you come back to buy again. I'd call it a discount on the next purchase, not a guarantee.

The records

The "Who's Hot" table on every page shows each capper's dollar profit and record over the last 3, 7 and 30 days. Those are short windows. On the day I read it, 3-0 and 2-0 records were showing as 100 percent. At -110 you need 52.4 percent just to break even, and a coin-flipper making 20 picks goes 14 and 6 or better about 6 times in 100. With 33 cappers, somebody is always on a streak, and he's the one on the home page.

The figures don't always agree with each other either. The home page says that $100 on every play from one capper over the last 30 days would have made $7,913; the "Who's Hot" table on the same site shows the same capper at $8,265 for 30 days. Neither page says what stake the dollar profits assume, and with plays rated from 3% to 5%, I can't tell. The site doesn't say who keeps or checks the records. Our ATB Verified page says what a checked record needs.

The free picks are the useful part. Each comes with the game, the line and the price, Sam Houston State +2 at -110 for one, and a written case. The label beside it says "Released/revised", with the hours since, so I'd note the time I first saw a pick and the price then. Track a capper's free picks against the closing line for a few weeks and you'll learn more than any banner tells you.

Who's behind it

The refund policy says purchases are made from Wager Talk Media, LP, which it calls the parent company, and the contact page gives a suite address in Las Vegas and email addresses for support. The terms say the content is for entertainment and that using it against federal, state or local law is prohibited.

No picks service takes the risk out of a bet. If you buy a 5% play, bet it the same as any other, at a small fixed slice of your bankroll, and stop at the loss you set before the week began.

The free picks are free. Keep your own book on them before you buy.