Covers review: free picks from writers, a model and the crowd, with no record kept

Free, and paid for elsewhere

Covers says it was established in 1995, that it is operated by CS Media Ltd, and that it now belongs to a listed sports data group. Its About page says the core of the site is free, "with no signup or subscription", and that held on every picks page I read. There is no premium tier, no package and no buy button.

So where does the money come from? The same pages promote sportsbook bonuses and promo codes, and that's the business. I don't hold it against them. A site paid by the books has its own pressures, but it has no reason to oversell a single pick, which is more than you can say for a shop that sells the pick itself.

Three kinds of pick

The picks hub mixes three things. There are expert picks from named staff writers, with previews. There are computer picks, a predicted score for each game set against the spread, the total and the moneyline, with prices shown from several books. And there is a consensus, which the site describes as the picks its community of bettors is making.

I'd treat those three very differently. A writer's pick comes with reasons, and you can judge the reasons. A computer pick is only as good as the model, and the page shows the output without the method. The consensus tells you what the crowd likes, which is useful mostly because the books know it too (the public side is rarely where the value is).

The site says it rates value on a star scale from the expected value of the bet, "using our projections and odds price". Three or four stars mean positive expected value by its numbers, five the highest. That's the right way to think about a bet. It's also only as sound as the projection, and the site doesn't publish how the projections have done.

No ledger

This is the part that matters for a handicapper review. Covers publishes no win-loss record for its experts and none for the computer picks, as far as the pages I read show. There are user rankings by units in its contests, which are a game among readers, not a record of the site's own picks.

Without a record, a free pick is an opinion with a price next to it. That isn't worthless. But you can't tell a good picker from a lucky one, and neither can Covers' readers. The test I'd use is laid out under free picks: note the price when the pick goes up, note the closing price, and do it for a few hundred picks. A picker who keeps getting a better number than the close is probably finding something. The closing-line value guide explains why I trust that more than a won-lost line.

Timing

The FAQ says football picks go up two or three days before the game and the other sports on the morning or afternoon of game day. Two or three days is a long time in football. A number posted on a Thursday can be a point different by Sunday, and a record graded at Thursday's price is not the record of someone who bet it on Sunday. If you follow a pick, write down the price you actually got.

Before you follow one

Nothing costs money here, so the question isn't the fee. It's whether you'd put money on a pick from someone with no published record. I'd ask Covers whether it keeps a graded record for its experts and its model, at what price, and whether it would publish it. Until then I'd treat the picks as a second opinion and do my own handicapping first.

A free pick still costs you the bet. Keep each wager to the same small share of your bankroll and set a loss limit before the week starts.

Good reading, no ledger.