How to bet on the World Cup

A book pricing national teams

A club plays every week, and the book has a season of results to price it from. A national team plays a handful of games a year, often against weak opposition, with a squad that changes from one camp to the next. So the book is pricing teams it has seen less of than any club it deals, and it builds those numbers from the players' club form, the qualifying results and the market.

Then the market changes. In a World Cup, people who never bet soccer bet it, and they bet the famous teams, the famous players and their own country. A book knows where its money will come from and shades those prices to match. If you want the favorite, you usually pay a little more than it's worth by kickoff. If you have an opinion on a quiet match between two teams nobody at the bar can name, that is often where the softer number is.

The tournament boards

The outright winner is a futures board with every team on it, priced months out, and it carries a much bigger cut than one match. The futures page shows how to add one up, and I wouldn't bet a long shot on it without doing that first.

The group markets are smaller and easier to check. Say a book prices a group winner like this: Team A +110, Team B +200, Team C +450, Team D +900. As percentages those are 47.6, 33.3, 18.2 and 10.0, which add up to 109.1. That 9.1 over a hundred is about twice what you pay on a single match. Next to it you'll find "to qualify" from the group, which pays less because more than one team goes through, and a straight forecast on who finishes first and second.

The top scorer market is the one I'd read the rules on most carefully. Most books settle a tie under dead-heat rules: if two players finish level, your stake is split and you're paid at the full price on half of it. Say $20 on a player at +1000 who ties with one other. You're paid as if you'd bet $10 at +1000 and lost the other $10: $110 back, $90 profit, where a clean win would have paid $200. A forward on a team that goes out in the group plays only the group games. One that reaches the final plays every round, and the extra games matter more than how good he is.

The match markets

The basic bet is the three-way moneyline: home, draw, away, settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. In the group stage a draw is a normal result and the bet works as it does in any league, and the soccer guide shows how to build draw no bet from those three prices and check what the book is charging for its own.

The knockout rounds are where people lose bets they thought they'd won. A team that draws after 90 minutes and goes through in extra time or on penalties has drawn, as far as the three-way line is concerned. The bet that pays on going through is "to advance" or "to qualify", at a shorter price. Decide which of the two you mean before you look at either.

Around the result sit the goals bets. The total, usually around 2.5, and both teams to score, which the public loves because it is a bet on goals happening. Books know that, and I'd lean the other way on a tight tournament game, where neither side wants to give anything away.

Handicaps take the draw out. A favorite at -1.5 goals has to win by two. The quarter lines split your stake across two numbers: -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1. Say $100 at -110 on a team at -0.75. A win by two or more pays $90.91. A win by exactly one wins the -0.5 half, $45.45, and refunds the -1 half, so you're up $45.45. A draw or a loss costs $100. I'd rather lay -0.75 on a favorite I like than a short price on the three-way line, because a one-goal win still pays.

Players

Player props run through every match: to score at any time, to score first, shots, cards. Most books void an anytime scorer bet if the player doesn't take part, but a player who comes on in the last five minutes has taken part, and your bet is graded on those five minutes. The props page covers the juice on them, which is higher than on the match.

Squad news decides these markets more than form does. A manager who has already qualified will often rest players in the last group game, and a book that set its prices a week early may not have caught up. That is the one place in a World Cup where I'd say the bettor who pays attention has a real edge over the line.

The month itself

There are matches most days for weeks, and every one of them is on television. That is the risk. A World Cup turns people who bet a few times a year into people betting three games a day, and the national team bet is the one nobody prices honestly, the bettor least of all. I'd set a total for the whole tournament before the first game, keep each bet to 1 or 2 percent of your bankroll, and leave my own country's games alone.

The soccer betting sites page covers which books deal the handicaps and the deeper markets. Whether you can bet at all depends on where you live.