How to bet on soccer
Soccer is low-scoring, and that one fact shapes every bet on it. A single goal decides most games, a draw is a normal result, and the book's menu is mostly a set of ways to deal with the draw. Learn to see one match through all of them and the rest of the board reads itself.
One match, priced by the book
Say a book deals a league match like this: home +125, draw +240, away +220. That is the three-way moneyline, and it settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. As percentages the three prices are 44.4, 29.4 and 31.3, which add up to 105.1. The book's cut is the 5.1 over a hundred.
Every other match market is the same opinion of the game, cut up a different way. That matters, because it means you can check one against another.
Draw no bet, built by hand
Most books offer draw no bet: you back a team, and if the game is drawn you get your stake back. It is the bet I'd point most Americans to first, because it works like the moneyline they already know.
You can make it yourself from the three-way prices, and you should, at least once, to see what the book is charging. With $100, put $70.59 on the home team at +125 and $29.41 on the draw at +240.
| Result | Home bet returns | Draw bet returns | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home wins | $158.82 | $0 | Up $58.82 |
| Draw | $0 | $100.00 | Even |
| Away wins | $0 | $0 | Down $100.00 |
That is draw no bet on the home team at -170. If the book's own draw-no-bet price on the same team is -180, its version costs more than yours, and you know where to put the money. I've seen that gap often enough on the smaller leagues to make the check a habit.
Double chance is the same idea from the other side: one ticket on two of the three results, say home or draw. It costs a short price for a bet that wins most of the time, and I rarely found it worth it.
Goals
Soccer totals sit around 2.5 goals, because two and three goals are the common results. The half goal means no push: over 2.5 needs three goals. Books that take soccer seriously also deal quarter lines. Over 2.25 is half your stake on over 2 and half on over 2.5. Say $100 at -110: three goals or more wins $90.91; exactly two goals refunds the over 2 half and loses the over 2.5 half, so you are down $50; one goal or none loses the $100.
Both teams to score is the other popular goals bet. The public loves it and loves the over, because goals are what they watch for. Books know it, and shade both a little. When I bet soccer totals, it was mostly unders, in games where both teams had more to lose than to win.
The season
Futures carry soccer through the year. There's the outright winner of a league, a top-four finish, relegation, the top scorer, and in a season with an obvious favorite, a market on the winner without that team. That last one exists because the outright price on a dominant club is too short to be worth anything to anyone, so the book takes it out and prices the race for second. If you think the favorite wins and a particular club finishes behind it, that is the bet.
A league season is long, so a futures price moves with every weekend's results, and the cut on a twenty-team board is much larger than on one match (the futures page shows how to add it up). I'd only bet a season future where I had a view the price didn't, and then early, before the table makes it obvious to everyone.
Where the public goes
The public bets big clubs and famous players, and bets them hardest in the big tournaments when people who don't follow soccer join in. Books shade those prices. The lower leagues are the other way round: thinner money, lower limits, softer numbers. The soccer betting sites page covers which books deal those leagues and the Asian handicap.
Soccer is the sport I know best, and the main thing it taught me is patience. Plenty of matches end 0-0 or 1-0, and a good bet loses to one deflection. Keep each bet to 1 or 2 percent of the bankroll, so a run of those doesn't decide anything.