What is a sports betting strategy?
A sports betting strategy is a plan for which bets you make, at what price and for how much. The ones that hold up rest on two things: getting a better price than the bet deserves, and keeping stakes small enough to survive the losing runs.
Price
At -110 you have to win 52.38 percent of your bets to break even. A strategy either gets you over that figure or lowers it.
Lowering it is the easier half, and the one I'd work on first. At -105 the break-even is 51.22 percent, and getting +3.5 where another book has +3 wins bets you would otherwise have pushed, and neither of those needs you to know one thing more about the game than you did. It needs more than one out and the habit of looking. So I'd open accounts at more than one book, where you are allowed to, and compare every bet.
Stake
Decide the bet size before the season, not before the game.
Most professionals keep one bet under 5 percent of their bankroll, and 1 or 2 percent is the usual working figure. On a $1,000 bankroll that is $10 or $20 a bet. The size stays the same after a win and after a loss. The bankroll guide explains why.
A reason for each bet
A bet needs a reason the price hasn't already covered. Everybody knows who the better team is, and the line says so. What you need is a view on what the number should be, and a bet only when the book's number is different.
It helps to stay narrow. I'd rather know one league or one kind of bet well than have opinions on every game on the board.
A record
Write down every bet: the number you took, the price, the stake and the result. Add the line at kickoff.
Results over a few weeks are mostly luck. Whether you keep beating the closing number is the better test, and you can read it much sooner; that is closing line value. Even so, I'd keep the record for a full season before you judge yourself.
What is not a strategy
- Doubling up after a loss. See betting systems.
- Parlaying favorites to make the price look better. The cut compounds.
- Following picks you can't check.
- Betting more because you feel sure.
Most bettors work on picking winners. The ones who last work on the price and the stake.
Related questions
What is a betting system?
A betting system is a fixed rule for what to bet or how much to stake, followed the same way every time. A staking system cannot beat the book on its own, because changing the size of your bets does not change the price you are betting into.
What are cappers?
A capper is a handicapper: someone who studies games and picks sides against the line. The word is mostly used for people who sell or post their picks. Some of them are good at it. A lot more are good at marketing.
What is the vig?
The vig is the bookmaker's cut, built into the price. At the standard -110 you lay $110 to win $100, and that extra $10 is how the book gets paid.