What are cappers?

The word

Capper is short for handicapper. Handicapping is working out what the line on a game should be, then betting where the book's number is different from yours, and in that sense any serious bettor is a handicapper. In everyday use, though, a capper is someone who gives out picks: for a fee, for a subscription, or free to build a following. The older word for a man who sells picks is a tout (and the older word was more honest).

What they are up against

At -110 a bettor has to win 52.38 percent of the time to break even. Hitting 55 percent over a long stretch is very good work.

Keep those two figures in mind when you read a capper's claims. A record of 70 percent on point spreads over a full season is one I would want to see every ticket for.

What picks cost

Say a capper really does win 55 percent, and you bet five of his picks a week to win $100 each. Each bet is worth $5.50 to you on average, so the five are worth $27.50.

If the picks cost $50 a week, you are losing money on a winning capper. You would have to bet to win $200 a game to cover the fee, and that only gets you to $55, so the fee is really a second vig on top of the book's, and a bigger one than most players ever stop to work out. I'd do that sum before paying anyone.

How to check one

• The whole record. Every pick, losers included, posted before the games start.
• The price. A line moves after a well-followed capper releases a play. A record kept at -3 means little if you could only bet -3.5.
• The units. "Up 40 units" tells you nothing until you know the size of each bet.
• The language. There are no locks and no guarantees. Anybody using those words is selling.

Hold anyone in the handicappers section to the same four tests.

If you do follow one, use him for his reasoning and see whether it holds up against your own. I'd keep the bet size where your bankroll says it should be, whatever he calls the play, so the pick he calls his strongest gets the same stake as the rest. If you want to do the work yourself, start with closing line value.

The good ones show you the losers too.