Super Bowl squares

The grid

Draw a grid ten squares across and ten down. One team goes along the top and the other down the side. That gives 100 squares, and people buy them, one at a time or in blocks, at a fixed price. Say $10 a square, so a full board holds $1,000.

Nobody picks a number. The squares are sold blank, and only when all 100 are gone does whoever runs the pool draw the digits 0 to 9 at random for the top row and again for the side column. Now your square has two numbers, one for each team. If you hold the square where the top team's 7 meets the side team's 4, you win any quarter that ends with the top team on a score ending in 7 and the other on a score ending in 4: 7 to 14, 17 to 4, 27 to 24.

The order matters, and it is the rule people get wrong at the party. A score of 14 to 7 the other way round belongs to a different square. Read which team is on which side before you argue.

How the quarters pay

The pool pays at the end of each quarter, on the score at that moment. A common split is a quarter of the pot each time, $250 a quarter on the $1,000 board. Plenty of pools weight it toward the end, something like 20 percent for each of the first three quarters and 40 for the final, which puts $200, $200, $200 and $400 on the table.

Because every pairing of two digits has a square, every quarter has a winner, as long as all 100 squares were sold. That is why the numbers wait until the board is full. An unsold square that turns out to be the winner leaves the organizer with a problem, and the rule for it should be settled before the draw, not after.

Overtime usually counts toward the final payout, so the last square is decided on the final score, whenever the game ends. Some pools pay the third quarter on the score at the end of regulation and treat overtime separately. I'd ask.

Which numbers come up

This is where squares stop being a lottery. Football is scored mostly in sevens and threes: a touchdown with the extra point is 7 and a field goal is 3. So the last digit of a team's score follows whatever those two numbers add up to.

Run through the common scores and you see it. Zero is where every team starts, and 10, 20 and 30 come from sevens and threes together (7 plus 3 is 10; two of each is 20). Seven is one touchdown, 17 is two of those with a field goal, and 27 is three and two. Four ends 14 and 24. Three ends 3, 13 and 23. Those four digits, 0, 7, 3 and 4, sit at the end of a team's score far more often than the rest.

Now try to get a team to a score ending in 2 or 5. It takes a safety, a two-point conversion, a missed extra point or an odd pile of field goals (five of them for 15). It happens, but it takes something unusual, and that is the whole difference between a good square and a bad one.

The first quarter is the strongest case of all. Plenty of teams haven't scored by then, or have one score, so 0, 3 and 7 carry the first payout far more than the late ones do. By the final the scores are bigger and the digits spread out a little, but 0, 7, 3 and 4 still lead.

So a square with 7 and 0 is a very good square, and one with 2 and 5 is close to dead. I haven't given you a percentage for each, because it moves with the two teams and the total on the game, and I won't make one up. The order of the digits is what football's scoring gives you, and it holds year after year.

What that means for your $10

Since the numbers are drawn after you pay, nobody can choose a good square, and the pool is fair. If every dollar goes back out, it is also the only bet of the day with no cut taken: $1,000 in, $1,000 paid out. Compare that with the 4.5 percent the book keeps on the spread, or more on the props, in our page on how to bet on the Super Bowl.

The value shows up afterwards. Some pools let people trade or sell squares once the numbers are known, and some offices fill a second board late. If you can buy a square after the draw, you now know what it's worth, and I'd pay more for a 7 and a 0 than for a 2 and a 5 without a second thought. If someone offers to buy your 0 and 7 at face value, they read this page too.

A pool where the organizer keeps a slice is a different thing. Then there is a cut, the same as at a book, and you should know what it is before you hand over your money.

Running one

Whether you can legally run a squares pool depends on where you live, and the details can matter, such as whether the person running it keeps any of the money. I'd find that out before putting a board up in the office.

If you do run one, write the rules on the sheet: the price, the split by quarter, what happens with overtime and with unsold squares, and when the money is paid. I've seen more arguments come out of a vague squares sheet than out of any bet with a book, because the book at least has its rules in writing.

The grid costs $10 and gives you four sweats. That's a fair price for a party, as long as you know your 2 and 5 is mostly a ticket to watch.