Spreads

Reading the number

Take a game listed like this.

Team	Spread	Price
Favorite	-6.5	-110
Underdog	+6.5	-110

The minus is the favorite: at -6.5 it has to win by 7 or more for the bet to win. The plus is the underdog, and at +6.5 it can lose by 6 or fewer, or win the game outright, and the bet wins. To grade a bet, apply the spread to your team's score and compare.

• The favorite wins 27 to 20. Take 6.5 off 27 and you have 20.5, which beats 20. The favorite covers.
• The favorite wins 24 to 20. Take 6.5 off 24 and you have 17.5, which loses to 20. The underdog covers, though it lost the game.

"Covering the spread" means your side won the bet. That is all it means.

The price behind the number

The -110 beside the spread is what the bet costs. You risk $110 to win $100 on either side, and you need to win 52.38 percent of your bets to break even. There is more on that in what minus 110 means.

The spread is built to make each side close to a coin flip. The book is not trying to predict the margin for your benefit; it is setting a number that splits opinion, and charging both opinions the vig. That's why I'd read both parts of the line every time. A -3 at -120 is a different bet from a -3 at -105.

Pushes, hooks and the numbers that matter

When the spread is a whole number, the margin can land on it. A favorite at -7 that wins by exactly 7 is a push, and your stake comes back. The half point is called the hook, and it is there so the bet can't push. Somebody wins and somebody loses.

Not every half point is worth the same. Football scores come in threes and sevens, so games end with a margin of 3 or 7 more often than any other. The difference between -2.5 and -3.5 is large; the difference between -4.5 and -5.5 is small. A bettor who lays -3.5 when -3 was available has given away the most common result in the sport.

So around 3 and 7, I shop. One book has -3 where another has -2.5 at the same price more often than you'd think, and that half point is free.

Buying points

Most books will move the spread half a point your way if you pay for it. You might take a favorite at -2.5 and lay -120 where the -3 was -110, and books usually charge more than that to come off the 3 or the 7.

At -120 your break-even climbs from 52.38 percent to 54.55. The half point has to make up that gap, and the book set the charge knowing how often games land on the number (the book always knows how often). I wouldn't make a habit of it. Finding the half point free at another book beats paying for it at yours.

Other sports

Basketball is dealt with a point spread the same way, though no single margin matters there the way 3 and 7 do in football.

Baseball and hockey have too little scoring for a real spread. They use a fixed one, usually 1.5, called the run line in baseball and the puck line in hockey, and the price does the work the points can't. Most of the betting in those sports is on the moneyline.

One confusion to clear up: in Britain, "spread betting" usually means a different product, where the amount you win or lose grows with how right or wrong you were. This page is about the point spread.

Points or price

If you think the underdog wins the game, look at the moneyline. If you only think it stays close, take the points. That's the choice I'd make on every underdog, and it's the one most people skip.

The spread on the board changes through the week as bets and news come in, but your ticket doesn't. If you bet -6.5 and the game closes at -7.5, you have -6.5. The reasons are in why odds move.

Whatever side you take, bet the same modest amount each time. A player who wins 55 percent against the spread is doing very well, and he still loses 45 bets in every 100. The team has to beat the number. You have to beat the price.