Line shopping

Why the numbers differ

Every book makes its own decisions. One has taken a lot of money on the favorite and has moved its line; another hasn't. One shades its numbers toward what its own players like to bet, another prices the game off the market and leaves it there. One charges -110 on a side, another charges -105 on that same side to draw money to it. The result is that, at any moment, the same game is on the board at several slightly different prices.

The book does not want you to notice that. A player with one account takes whatever is on that one board, and a book can live on that player for years.

A few cents on the moneyline

Say you bet a favorite to win $100. At one book it is -130, so you risk $130. At another it is -125, so you risk $125. Same team, same game, $5 saved.

Five dollars sounds like nothing. Say you bet 200 favorites a year that way: that is $1,000 you kept for doing nothing but looking. Put it as a percentage and it is clearer. At -130 the team has to win 56.5 percent of the time for you to break even. At -125 it is 55.6 percent. You need to be right less often to make the same money.

It works the other way on the underdog. At +140 a winning $100 bet pays $140; at +150 it pays $150. The break-even falls from 41.7 percent to 40 percent. In moneyline sports, baseball and hockey above all, this is most of the game.

The price of the spread

On a spread or a total you can shop two things: the number and the juice.

The juice first. Bet 100 games to win $100 each and win 53 of them. At -110 you are up $130 for the season. At -105, risking $105 a time, the same 53 winners leave you up $365, nearly three times as much for picking the same games. The break-even drops from 52.4 percent to 51.2 percent, and that is the difference between a winning bettor and a losing one for a lot of players.

Then the number. Taking the favorite at -2.5 instead of -3 in pro football costs nothing most weeks and wins the bet outright whenever the favorite wins by exactly 3, which is the most common margin in that sport. A half point in college basketball or on a total is worth less, but it is never worth nothing. I'd take the half point over a few cents of juice on most football sides and the cents over the half point on most totals, but either one is free money compared with not looking.

What you need to do it

You need accounts at more than one book, funded or at least open, before the game you want to bet. You can't shop a price at a book you have to sign up to first; by the time you're verified the number is gone.

Two or three accounts cover most of it. Past that you are chasing smaller differences for more paperwork, and every account is another cashier to check (see the withdrawals page before you spread money around). Pick the books for their prices and how they pay, not for the sign-up offer.

Look at the price at the moment you bet, not on Monday. Lines move all week, and the best number on Tuesday can be the worst one by Saturday. If you have a firm view on a game, the opening number is often the time to act; if you expect the line to come your way, wait, and shop when you're ready.

What the book thinks of it

From my side of the counter, a player who shops every bet is a player I couldn't make much money from. He only bets into me when my price is the worst on his screen for the other side, which means I'm the one dealing the stale number. Books know this, and a player who always takes the best number in the market is often the one whose limits get cut first.

That isn't a reason to stop. It is a reason to know why it happens when it does. The habit that gets you limited is the same habit that measures whether you're any good, which is what closing line value is about.

Shopping doesn't change how much you should bet. Five percent of your bankroll at the best price is still five percent of your bankroll, and a better number won't save you from a bet you couldn't afford.