Odds movement

Two levers

The reasons a line moves (money, news, the rest of the market) are on the page Why do odds move?. This page is about what the book does at the screen.

A bookmaker has two levers. The first is the price: the spread stays at -4 and the juice goes from -110 both ways to -115 on the popular side and -105 on the other. It is a small move, and the first thing he reaches for. The second is the number itself, the spread going from -4 to -4.5, which is a bigger move and one he can't take back without consequences. Moneylines and totals work the same way, a few cents first and then the number.

So when you see a line move, ask which lever was pulled. A change in the juice is a nudge. A change through a 3 or a 7 means the book was pushed hard.

Whose money it was

A book grades its players long before it grades their bets. Every account has a history, and the line mover knows whose bet is on the screen.

A $2,000 bet from a player who has beaten the closing line for two years moves the number at once. A $2,000 bet from a man who parlays his home team every week moves nothing. The first bet is information; the second is business, and I was always glad to have it.

That is how a line can move against the crowd. Most of the tickets are on one team and the number goes the other way, because the bigger or sharper money is on the other side. People call it reverse line movement. Count the dollars, not the tickets, and it stops looking strange.

The middle

Every move leaves the old number behind in players' pockets, and sometimes that is expensive.

Say a book opens a favorite at -2.5 and takes $110 to win $100 on it. Money keeps coming, and it moves to -3.5. Now a second player takes the underdog at +3.5 for $110.

• The favorite wins by 4 or more, or wins by less than 3, or loses the game: one bet wins and one loses. The book collects $110, pays $100 and makes $10.
• The favorite wins by exactly 3: both bets win. The book pays $100 twice and loses $200.

The book is risking $200 to make $10. It breaks even only if games land on 3 less than once in 21, and in the NFL, 3 is the most common margin there is, and games land on it far more often than that.

That is called getting middled. It is why a bookmaker hates moving through a key number, and why he will raise the juice at -2.5 before he goes to -3, and raise it again at -3 before he goes to -3.5, sitting on each price as long as he can. On a move from -8.5 to -9.5 he worries much less. I never lost sleep over a 9.

Moves with nobody behind them

A book also moves when nobody has bet a dollar with it. Sharp groups bet the same side at many books within a minute or two; the first books move, and the rest follow before the group reaches them. A book that waits to be hit pays for it, so most don't wait. In the trade a move like that is called steam.

Following has its own risk. Now and then a group bets one side early at small limits to push the number, then bets the other side for much more once the line has moved and the limits are up. A book that chases every move ends up dealing the price somebody wanted it to deal.

For you, the lesson is the same either way. I wouldn't bet a side only because it moved, because by the time you see the move, the price that made it a good bet is gone. After a move through a key number, though, look at the book that hasn't moved yet. That is where the value is, for a few minutes.

Monday's number and Sunday's

Limits are small when a line opens and large when the game is close. A move on Monday can be caused by a few thousand dollars, while a move an hour before kickoff took real money or real news.

So the late number is the one to respect. The closing line is the market's last word, and beating it over a season is the best sign a bettor is doing something right. Write down your number and the closing number for every bet; it is the cheapest record you will ever keep, and the most honest.

A moving line is a reason to look closer, not a reason to bet bigger. Your stake comes from your bankroll, and it should be the same size whether the number is running or standing still.