Important betting notes for the Derby
By Mike Sullivan
The Kentucky Derby is one of the most exciting sporting events of the year. It’s truly a spectacle and an American tradition at Churchill Downs.
I always watch it every single year. However, this year I will be getting dressed up and attending a Kentucky Derby party for the first time. I’m excited and I need to make sure my betting research is on point for tomorrow’s race!
Look, some betting guides run down the entire field of 20 horses. This can be helpful if you’re looking for expansive coverage. But a lot of people don’t have time to read paragraphs about every single horse.
What I wanted to do is provide you with a very condensed betting guide with simply a few of my tips. I’ve done all of the heavy lifting and read many different betting guides. Therefore I was able to compact everything and tell you a few key important notes to keep in mind.
Here are a few facts you NEED to know about tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby:
1. Be cautious of Irish War Cry despite all the hype. Irish War Cry might be the most qualified horse in the field. He’s been great. He has wins in the Holy Bull Stakes in Florida and also the Wood Memorial in New York. He will be the third Derby starter since 2011 for his trainer, Graham Motion. Motion won the Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom so he clearly has good experience. Right now, Irish War Cry has 5-1 odds or so depending on the sports book. However there’s one stat that never gets mentioned! He is running from the 17 gate. Guess what… No horse has EVER won the Kentucky Derby from this gate. How can you bet your money on a horse when literally no horse has ever won from that spot. It’s risky. Will Irish War Cry be the first? I’ll trust history on this one and take a pass on betting on him to win.
2. Always Dreaming is also 5-1 odds. He’s a favorite and there will be a ton of money bet on him. I don’t know if I can trust the clear favorite. I never do. I like to stay away from the sexy pick. Also, it seems like literally everyone owns a piece of Always Dreaming. The horse has a ton… and I mean a ton… of co-owners. That’s why the hype is a bit much at times.
3. McCracken at 6-1 would be my pick as of right now. He’s racing in the 15 gate and has a ton of talent. He won his first four races this year but then slipped up a bit with an ankle injury and a third place showing at the Blue Grass Stakes. I don’t expect a long shot to win this race and I think McCracken is a very good bet.
Best of luck to you! Hope I could provide you with at least a few tips to help with your Derby wagering. It should be a lot of fun.