Baseball Betting Tips for 2023

Baseball has returned after a long hiatus. That means baseball betting is back. The season starts on March 30 and 2,430 games will be available for wagering over the course of the six-month season.

Key Points

– Baseball betting requires knowledge of the different types of bets.

– Unlike sports like football and basketball, baseball betting is primarily done on the moneyline.

How to Bet Baseball in 2023

Baseball is more of a moneyline sport unlike football and basketball. The majority of those wagers are made on the point spread. Although available, run line bets in baseball are less common. Moneyline bets are easy to understand. Bettors pick a team to win. That’s it.

When placing a moneyline wager, bettors can select either the favorite or the underdog. The favorite is expected to win. Be aware that if you bet on the favorite, your winnings will typically be lower than your initial investment. 

Winning an underdog bet will typically result in a higher payout. This is all dependent upon the moneyline odds on a given game. 

MLB bettors also have the option of wagering on the point spread. In baseball, the spread is referred to as the run line. It is almost always set at 1.5 runs with different odds for both the favorite and underdog.

There are also totals bets in baseball where bettors wager on the Over or Under. Bettors are predicting the final combined score to go Over or Under a number set by oddsmakers. Don’t forget early MLB futures bets this season.

The lengthy schedule of baseball games is another distinctive feature. There are 2,430 regular-season games played in a typical season, which means there are numerous opportunities for wiseguys to increase their advantage. 

With all this in mind, here are some baseball betting tips for this season.

MARCH MADNESS BETTORS: SWEET SIXTEEN & ELITE EIGHT BETTING TRENDS

Skip the Popular Picks

The average bettor tends to like favorites. Oddsmakers know that and use it to their advantage. Teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are popular among bettors. Whether they are listed at -150 or -175, public bettors will bet on them.

That can lead to some overpriced favorites. Bettors would be wise to stay away from them. Regular season MLB favorites priced at -150 or higher have won roughly 63 percent of their games since 2005.

That means those favorites lost 37 percent of the time. When you shell out $175 on a favorite to win $100 and lose, that can add up quickly. Because you are always laying a negative number, you can end up losing big time.

When favorites win, the payouts are modest. You might think the Yankees are a sure thing at -275. You put out $275 to win a measly $100. When they lose, you lose big. If they win, you win small. Lay off the big MLB favorites and click here to learn more about point spread versus moneyline betting.

Baseball Betting Tips – Find Plus-Money Underdogs

Sports bettors should know that in order to break even at standard (-110) odds, they have to win 52.4 percent of the time. However, they can win at less than a 50 percent clip and still end up winning by betting on underdogs.

This may lead bettors to playing with their betting unit size. Regardless, baseball bettors can win by finding the right underdogs.

On a given day’s slate, you can find some strong underdogs. Imagine betting $100 each on three underdogs at +120, +150, and +170. Your $300 investment pays out $540! Obviously, you can’t just haphazardly bet on underdogs. However, if you do your homework, you can find those that are priced just right with a chance to win.

Bet Against the Public

Betting against the public is nothing new. Since the public loses most of the time, it makes sense to bet against them. The average bettor places wagers based on instinct. They constantly seek out favorites, home teams, well-known brands, and teams with star players. 

Recency bias is something else that affects public bettors. They’ll wager on a team if they played well the previous game. They fade teams that played terribly in the previous game. 

Going against the grain enables bettors to take advantage of inflated statistics and public bias. Positioning oneself on the side of the books is an added bonus. The house always wins, as we all know. 

If an MLB bettor wagered on games that took in the most action and, in those games, bet on underdogs getting less than 40 percent of all the moneyline bets since 2007, they would have won roughly 44 percent of the time. Because of the plus-money odds, they would have come out ahead by approximately 190 units.

Baseball Betting & Reverse Line Movement

Baseball is more than just picking plus-money underdogs and short favorites. Bettors should be tuned into what professional bettors are doing. Reverse Line Movement (RLM), which occurs when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, is one of the best ways to spot sharp action. 

As an example, let’s say that the Cubs are opening at -150 against the Brewers (+130). Chicago receives 75% of all moneyline wagers, but the Cubs’ line drops from -150 to -135, while the Brewers’ value has increased from +130 to +115. 

Why would the books change the odds to favor public Cubs bettors? The reason is the pros stepped in and made some huge wagers on the Brewers. Milwaukee is only getting 25% of the wagers, but the line has shifted in the Brewers’ favor. 

Since 2005, MLB teams (both favorites and underdogs) that received less than 35% of the moneyline bets with reverse line movement of at least one cent won 44 percent of the time. That resulted in winning over 16 units. It gets even better if you increase the RLM to 10 cents or more. 

Bet Divisional Underdogs

Teams in the same division play each other 13 times per season in MLB. Playing a team so often creates some familiarity. That favors an underdog. 

Since 2005, underdogs in games played outside the division have suffered losses that total about 645 units. Underdogs in divisional games have only lost about 70 units. That’s a huge difference.

In baseball betting, bettors can filter divisional underdogs even further. They tend to perform better in games where they play on the road and the game has a total of 8.5 or more. Remember, the public over-values home teams, so bettors can find value on a divisional underdog. Betting on road divisional underdogs in games with a high total since 2005 has led to winnings of over 70 units.