Week 1 Football Recap
By The Rex Factor
No discernable trends came out of Week 1 NFL play or Week 2 college play
Those who like to follow trends by following the board in college football or the NFL were losers last week.
The only net trend where the bettors could be a winner would be by ignoring the two games where the game closed at a pick (Kansas City at Houston and Indianapolis at Buffalo) and focused on the 14 other games from Thursday through Monday. Favorites went 8-5-1 in those games.
The only push in either college or pro football was the season opener, when Pittsburgh scored at the final gun to lose by 7 to the Patriots. Most everyone had 7 on that game all week, though there was some 7.5 available at times at Bet33.com and a few other places.
Of course, there is an asterisk involved here. Many of the NFL games had lines up as early April, and a consensus market was littering the Don Best screen by July. Minnesota opened a 3-point or more underdog to San Francisco in the late Monday night game, and closed around a 3-point favorite. That’s just one example of some big moves that were represented in the offseason. There were a few games that could have differing results than the numbers that I came up with. These will represent the closing line every week, so we can try to look for anything that starts to develop.
There were eight home teams that covered in the NFL, with seven visiting teams getting the money along with the aforementioned Thursday night push. Of the two games that closed pick, visiting Kansas City and home team Buffalo were the winners.
Interestingly enough, depending on where you shop (Pitt +7.5), you could have won all four NFL night games betting on the underdog plus the points. Take out the night games, and the favorites were 8-2-1 against the number. St. Louis was the only outright dog winner Sunday when the Rams took out Seattle. The Giants covered Sunday at Dallas, and both Monday home dogs (49ers over Minny and Atlanta over Philly).
Totals went 8-8 OVER-to-UNDER in the NFL.
In college football, the choppy theme was only exacerbated.
There were 26 OVERS and 25 UNDERS in the 51 board games from Thursday through Saturday. Away teams went 26-25 against the spread over their home counterparts; again, a losing proposition regardless of which side you had if you bet the board.
Favorites went 24-27 against the number with no pushes and no games that closed “pick”. Of the 27 underdog winners, more than half (14) won the game outright, with 13 cover-but-lose scores as well. Traditionally that number is higher earlier in the season because of the numerous lopsided non-conference matchups with high point spreads.
There were 23 “extra games” in week 2, where the teams from Division I-AA (Football Championship Subdivision) go in search of a paycheck against teams from I-A. None of those teams were able to win outright. Most notable was Jacksonville State losing in overtime at Auburn as a 39-point underdog. The Gamecocks led Auburn and had the ball with less than 3 minutes left but got conservative and could not hold on for the shock upset.
However, aside from Liberty covering at West Virginia (lost 41-17 as a 32-point underdog), every other favorite covered the spread in the 17 games that started at 7 Eastern time or before. The last four “dogs” on the extra game board covered the spread in losing efforts. All told, after the 17-2 start, the I-A schools (all of which were favored) finished 17-6 SU/ATS.
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