Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, August 26, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
CC Sabathia used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but there was always a fear that his weight would end up shortening his career. And that might be the case as the Yankees have placed the big lefty on the DL with a troublesome knee injury that not only might end Sabathia’s season but potentially his career. He had to leave Sunday’s game against the Indians with “stabbing” pain in his right knee. That right knee has taken a lot of punishment with Sabathia, who is north of 300 pounds, having thrown more than 3,300 pro innings. He had knee surgery in 2010 and more issues there limited him to eight starts in 2014. He basically has no cartilage left in there. Do I think Sabathia retires? No, as he’s due $25 million next year and with a $25 million vesting option in 2017. But maybe he and the team work on a buyout.
♦♦ Astros at Yankees (-148, 7.5)
Sabathia’s loss isn’t really much of an issue with the Bombers as he was just 4-9 with a 5.27 ERA. Plus, New York gets back one of its best starters on Wednesday in Michael Pineda (9-7, 3.97). He hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 24 due to a forearm injury. Pineda allowed one run on three hits while striking out three and walking zero in 4.2 innings in a rehab start with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Friday. He lost in Houston on June 28, allowing three runs over eight innings. Carlos Correa is 2-for-3 with two doubles off him. Chris Carter is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts. Houston has lost three straight starts by Collin McHugh (13-7, 3.96) even though he has allowed only four earned runs in that stretch. Alex Rodriguez is 1-for-3 off him.
Key trends: The Astros are 9-1 in McHugh’s past 10 vs. teams with a winning record. The Yankees are 5-1 in Pineda’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. The “over/under” has gone under in four straight McHugh starts. The under is 4-1 in Pineda’s past five.
Early lean: Yankees and under.
♦♦ A’s at Mariners (-166, 6.5)
You could see Seattle make a trade here soon as center fielder Austin Jackson, who will become a free agent after this season, has cleared waivers. Jackson, who was part of that three-way David Price trade with Detroit and Tampa last summer, is hitting .259 with 34 RBIs in 101 games this season entering Tuesday. I’m definitely interested to see how Seattle ace Felix Hernandez (14-8, 3.74) looks here as the former Cy Young winner is just 2-3 with an 8.48 ERA in his past five starts. He is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts vs. Oakland in 2015. Josh Reddick is just a .149 hitter off him in 47 at-bats. Stephen Vogt is 9-for-15 with a homer off Hernandez. Oakland’s Chris Bassitt (1-5, 2.48) continues to get little run support. He is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two appearances (once start) vs. the M’s this year. Nelson Cruz is 1-for-3 off him with a double.
Key trends: The A’s are 1-4 in Bassitt’s past five vs. teams with a winning record. The Mariners are 1-4 in Hernandez’s past five vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 5-1 in Bassitt’s past six. The under is 4-1-1 in Hernandez’s past six vs. Oakland.
Early lean: Mariners and under.
♦♦ Padres at Nationals (-191, 6.5)
Washington is running out of time to catch the Mets in the NL East, but perhaps the Tuesday return of outfielder and leadoff man Denard Span from a long stay on the disabled list will spur the club. I don’t think there’s any argument that the Nats’ Max Scherzer (11-10, 2.79) is one of the best pitchers in MLB, but somehow he hasn’t won a game at home since no-hitting Pittsburgh on June 20. Scherzer hasn’t lasted longer than six innings in his past four outings overall. Perhaps Matt Kemp gets this game off as he’s just 1-for-24 career off Scherzer with seven strikeouts. Justin Upton is 0-for-5 with three punchouts. It’s Tyson Ross (8-9, 3.32) for Washington. San Diego’s Petco Park is maybe the most pitcher-friendly park in MLB yet Ross has a much better 2.71 ERA away from there this season. Span is 4-for-12 off him. Bryce Harper is 2-for-3 with a solo homer.
Key trends: The Padres are 4-0 in Ross’ past four on the road. Washington is 1-5 in Scherzer’s past six following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 9-1 in Ross’ past 10 on Wednesday. The over is 5-2 in Scherzer’s past seven at home vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Nationals and under.
♦♦ Rockies at Braves (-136, 7.5)
Monitor the status of Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez for a few days as he left Monday’s game with a knee injury and is being called day-today. He has been killing the ball since the All-Star break with 17 homers and 36 RBIs. So it might be a bit easier lineup to face for Atlanta’s Shelby Miller (5-10, 2.50), who brings a 17-start winless streak into this one. One of those came July 10 in Colorado where Miller allowed five runs and 11 hits over five innings. Gonzalez is 1-for-6 career off him with a homer. Colorado lefty Yohan Flande (3-1, 3.94) beat Washington last time out, giving up two runs and three hits over seven. He has never faced Atlanta.
Key trends: The Rockies are 2-5 in Flande’s past seven on the road. The under is 8-1 in Miller’s past nine.
Early lean: Braves and under.
♦♦ Cubs at Giants (-112, 7)
This is your ESPN Wednesday night game and thus will have live betting at sportsbooks. The Cubs go with Kyle Hendricks (6-5, 4.03). They have won his past five outings. That includes Aug. 8 vs. the Giants where Hendricks allowed three runs and five hits over 5.1 innings. Brandon Belt is 1-for-2 with a homer and two RBIs off him. Buster Posey is 1-for-3 with a strikeout. The Giants’ Jake Peavy (3-6, 4.35) lost on Aug. 9 in Chicago, allowing two runs over five innings. He is 2-2 with a 4.13 ERA in five home starts in 2015. Chris Coghlan is a .308 hitter off him in 13 at-bats. Miguel Montero is 6-for-24 with two doubles and a homer.
Key trends: The Cubs are 1-4 in Hendricks’ past five on Wednesday. The Giants are 8-1 in Peavy’s past nine on five days of rest. The over is 8-1 in Hendricks’ past nine road starts against teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Cubs and over.
These MLB clubs are runaway money makers when betting the runline
By Joe Fortenbaugh
The bulk of our season-long MLB betting analysis focuses on specific trends as they pertain to wagering on the moneyline, since it’s the most popular selection for baseball bettors. However, we’re going to shift gears for a bit to talk about the runline, which is essentially baseball’s way of incorporating a pointspread.
How it works is quite simple, as the favorite is listed at -1.5 runs while the underdog is posted at +1.5 runs. Betting the favorite means you have to win by two or more runs, while supporting the dog requires a worst-case-scenario loss of no greater than one run.
Many bettors prefer to take advantage of the runline as opposed to the moneyline because it offers up the opportunity to bet on favorites with less risk. For example, starting pitcher Jacob deGrom and the Mets were posted as -250 moneyline favorites for their showdown with Philadelphia (+210) Monday night. But the runline offered the opportunity to play New York -1.5 at the more reasonable price of -130, with the Phillies available to purchase at +1.5, +120.
As it relates to the 2015 MLB season, let’s commence our analysis by examining which clubs have performed at the most profitable of levels in regards to the runline:
Stats and record as of August 15, 2015.
Top-5 MLB runline teams (PLAY ON)
1. Texas Rangers: 75-48 (.610)
2. Minnesota Twins: 73-51 (.589)
3. Kansas City Royals: 69-54 (.561)
T4. Tampa Bay Rays: 69-55 (.556)
T4. Toronto Blue Jays: 69-55 (.556)
T4. San Francisco Giants: 69-55 (.556)
It comes as no surprise to see Kansas City and Toronto on this list, as both clubs not only sit atop their respective divisions at the moment, but are a combined 42 games over .500 entering Tuesday’s slate of action.
In addition, the defending champion San Francisco Giants may find themselves 1.5 games out in the National League West, but the Orange & Black currently rank seventh in run differential.
What bettors should be paying particular attention to is the fact that big profits have been there for the taking when it comes to Texas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay, who are a combined six games over .500 through approximately 124 games of action. That’s the type of runline production that pads a bankroll.
Bottom-5 MLB runline teams (PLAY AGAINST)
1. Seattle Mariners: 52-72 (.419)
T2. Washington Nationals: 52-70 (.431)
T2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 53-70 (.431)
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 54-70 (.435)
5. Boston Red Sox: 55-69 (.444)
At 12 games under .500 despite a Top-5 payroll, the Red Sox have been an absolute dumpster fire this season. Similar sentiments can be echoed regarding the Mariners, who were a very popular World Series pick prior to the start of the 2015 campaign.
Where the real money has been available for the taking has been in fading current playoff contenders the Nationals, Dodgers and Angels. Despite owning a collective mark of 14 games above .500, those clubs combine for a staggering 51 games under .500 in regards to the runline.
To put that in perspective, it’s been just as lucrative this season betting on the Minnesota runline as it has been wagering against the Washington runline.
Top-5 MLB runline teams coming off a win (PLAY ON)
1. San Francisco Giants: 42-24 (.636)
2. Minnesota Twins: 39-23 (.629)
3. Texas Rangers: 39-24 (.619)
4. Houston Astros: 41-28 (.594)
5. Tampa Bay Rays: 36-26 (.581)
Four repeat offenders appear on this list just as they did the Top-5 list above, but the important note to take away from this information is as follows: Not only are these five clubs producing significant profits as it relates to runline bets following a win, but three of them (San Francisco, Minnesota and Texas) are cashing at the highly lucrative rate of more than 60 percent. When these organizations win, they tend to do so in bunches.
Bottom-5 MLB runline teams coming off a win (PLAY AGAINST)
1. Seattle Mariners: 19-37 (.339)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 26-41 (.388)
3. Boston Red Sox: 22-34 (.393)
4. Cleveland Indians: 23-35 (.397)
5. Oakland A’s: 22-31 (.415)
Eliminate the Oakland A’s and you’re left with four teams who are providing returns of 60 percent of higher when it comes to fading a club on the runline following a win. That’s the type of profitability that puts one in excellent position for the start of football season in September.
Top-5 MLB runline teams when playing on the road (PLAY ON)
1. Texas Rangers: 48-17 (.738)
2. Tampa Bay Rays: 39-23 (.629)
3. Minnesota Twins: 38-24 (.613)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 38-26 (.594)
5. New York Mets: 36-25 (.590)
A warm welcome to the Diamondbacks and Mets for making an appearance in this column, but don’t lose sight of what’s really important here: In this wagering subset, the Texas Rangers are winning at the astronomical rate of 73.8 percent. Not only that, but once again, Tampa Bay and Minnesota are producing returns north of 60 percent. These are certainly three teams worth monitoring very closely over the rest of the regular season.
Bottom-5 MLB runline teams when playing on the road (PLAY AGAINST)
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 21-40 (.344)
2. Washington Nationals: 29-37 (.439)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 30-36 (.455)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 28-31 (.475)
5. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 28-30 (.483)
We’ve already discussed how surprising it is to see playoff contenders like the Nationals and the Dodgers on this list, and it’s as equally unsurprising to observe a bottom-dweller like Philadelphia make an appearance on a bottom-5 gambling rundown. But how about the Pittsburgh Pirates?
Andrew McCutchen & Co. currently rank third in MLB in total wins and fifth in run differential while owning an ultra-impressive 44-20 mark when playing within the friendly confines of PNC Park. Despite all the success the Pirates have enjoyed this season, the Bucs are still three games under .500 when it comes to runline road wagers. Be sure to keep this in mind as the playoff push heats up in September.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: ‘Overs’ aplenty at Safeco Field
By Jeese Schule
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major-league schedule:
The Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging over 6.5 runs per game, batting .322 since July 25th. They’ve won 18-of-28 games during that span, and return home from a successful road trip to host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals lost 2-of-3 in San Diego, and could be in for a tough series against a hot Diamondbacks team.
Runs At Wrigley
The Cubs are on a roll, winners of 13 of their last 16. They come off a four game sweep of the Braves at Wrigley, out-scoring Atlanta 40-14 in those games. They’ve gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and that trend could continue in the Windy City as they host the Indians on Monday.
Blue Jays Battery
The Jays broke another record this weekend, scoring the most runs in a three game series in club history (36) in a sweep of the Angels in Anaheim. Toronto has seized the top spot in the AL East, moving a half game up on the Yankees. The Jays will be in Texas this week, and you should expect fireworks in Arlington.
*Josh Donaldson was 4-for-5 with a double, a home run and six RBIs on Saturday, helping the Jays beat the Angels by a score of 15-3 in Anaheim. He became the first player in the majors to reach 100 RBIs, and he second on the American League with 34 home runs.
*Yoenis Cespedes is proving to be a valuable acquisition for the Mets, and he had himself quite a series in Colorado over the weekend. Cespedes was 7-for-15 with three home runs and eight RBIs in a three game sweep of the Rockies.
*Madison Bumgarner did it again on Friday, hitting another home run in a win over the Pirates in Pittsburgh. He had a double, a home run and a pair of RBIs in his previous start.
*Mike Fiers tossed a no-hitter at home versus the Dodgers on Friday, striking out 10 in a 3-0 win. He’s now 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts since coming over from Milwaukee. His next start comes on the road in Minnesota on Friday.
We think of Safeco as one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors, but that hasn’t been the case lately. The Mariners have seen the total go over at a rate of 20-5-3 in their last 28 home games. Their bullpen can take a lot of the blame, only two teams in the majors (Oakland and Colorado) rank worse than the Mariners who’s releivers own a 4.45 ERA this season.
*David Wright is set to return to the lineup for the Mets on Monday as they face the Phillies. He’s batting .433 with a home run and eight RBIs in 30 career at bats versus Aaron Harang, who will start on Thursday.
*C.C. Sabathia left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, and he’ scheduled to have an MRI on Monday. With a record of 4-9 with a 5.27 ERA, the Yankees aren’t likely to rush him back.
Hernandez is struggling mightly this month
In case you somehow missed it, Felix Hernandez has looked rather pedestrian in his recent outings. In August so far, Hernandez has posted an 8.18 ERA while allowing 20 earned runs over 22.0 innings pitched.
The Mariners have managed to go 2-2 in those four starts despite Hernandez’ struggles. The former Cy Young winner entered the month with a 3.02 ERA and has since jumped to 3.74.
The M’ will host the Oakland A’s Wednesday.
McHugh dealing, but Astros supplying no run support
Through four starts in August, Collin McHugh has been lights out, but the Houston Astros are just 1-3 in those games. McHugh has a stellar 1.67 ERA with a 28/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio so far this month.
However those four games have seen the ‘Stros score a combined seven runs, including just three in the three losses.
McHugh and the Astros face off against the Yankees Wednesday in New York.
WNBA Betting Recap
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes (from Monday, Aug. 17 through Sunday, Aug. 23)
— Favorites went 9-6 straight up
— Underdogs went 8-7 against the spread (ATS)
— Road teams posted a 8-7 SU record
— Road teams posted a 10-5 ATS record
— The ‘under’ went 9-6
Team Betting Notes
— Tulsa (13-14) is on the comeback trail after some injury issues, capping off a perfect 2-0 week with a win Saturday over Connecticut (12-14), a team on a slide. The Shock have won and covered three straight heading into their game Friday against L.A.
— Speaking of the Sun, Connecticut dropped their fourth straight, and they’re now 5-13 in their past 18 games after starting out 7-1. One thing that is a sure thing with the Sun – the over. The total has gone over in six in a row for the Sun.
— Atlanta (10-16) has alternated wins and losses in each of their past six games. More importantly, they’re 4-1 ATS over their past five games, and the ‘over’ has hit in nine of their past 11 outings. They have a rematch with Connecticut Tuesday at home after winning 102-92 on the road Sunday in the first end of the home-and-home.
— Chicago (17-11) completed a home-and-home sweep of Washington (15-11), and it is their first back-to-back victories since Aug. 2-4 against Washington and Indiana.
— Indiana (17-9) inched by New York (18-8) by an 80-79 count, as the Fever has now won six in a row and 14 of the past 17. The Fever also have covered five of their past six while the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the past five.
— Los Angeles (10-17) had a winning week, going 2-1 SU/ATS, with both victories and covers coming on the road. Next up is a trip to red-hot Indiana Wednesday. The two sides just met Aug. 18 with the Fever blasting the Sparks 79-68 in L.A.
— Phoenix (17-10) restored order Sunday against Minnesota (19-9), snapping an uncharacteristic three-game slide for the Mercury. The Merc also snapped an 0-3 ATS skid. Despite the cover they are still just 4-11 ATS over the past 15 games.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | LOS ANGELES at INDIANA
Play Under – Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )
WNBA | LOS ANGELES at INDIANA
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins
30-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 0.0 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | LOS ANGELES at INDIANA
Play Against – Any team vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) off an road win where they scored 85 or more points, in August or September games
88-45 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 38.5 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )
MLB Wednesday Scouting Edge
10:05 am Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Pineda Returns From DL – Gets Start vs. Astros
Just as C.C. Sabathia exits to the DL, Michael Pineda comes off the DL to join the Yankee rotation. Pineda went on the DL on July 30 with a right flexor forearm muscle sprain. Before the injury Pineda was 9-7 with a 3.97 era. In a rehab start on August 16, Pineda allowed 2 runs on 4 hits in 3 innings of work with Double-A Trenton. Pineda didn’t issue a walk or record a strikeout throwing 42 pitches. Pineda made a 2nd rehab start last Friday at Scranton-Wilkes-Barre at the Triple-A level, where he threw 63 pitches plus another 10 in the bullpen. The 26 year old Pineda went 4 2/3 inning giving up 1 run on 3 hits. He fanned three and walked zero. The Yankees have indicated that he may throw about 90 pitches in his Wednesday start.
12:40 pm Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
King Felix Tries to Regain Throne at Home
King Felix Hernandez has certainly lost his crown in his last 5 starts. Hernandez has gone 2-3 with an 8.58 era over his past 5 starts. In perhaps his worst start ever on August 15 at Boston, Felix managed only 2 1/3 innings of work and was knocked around for 12 hits and 10 runs by Boston. He came back on August 21 and lost to the White Sox allowing 9 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings. In his last 7 starts Hernandez is 3-3 with a 6.26 era and in his last 15 starts he is 6-7 with a 5.20 era. Hernandez is 20-8 with a 2.63 era in 38 career games vs the A’s. He’s 1-1 with a 3.32 era in 3 outings this season.
4:05 pm New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
42 Year Old Colon Goes Up Against Rookie Eickhoff
Jerad Eickhoff got off to a great start in the majors. In his debut, the right hander shut down the Marlins by tossing 6 scoreless innings while only allowing 5 hits. Eickhoff also managed to hit a 2 run single. The rookie will make his 2nd start against veteran Bartolo Colon today. In case your counting, this will be Colon’s 461st start in MLB. Colon has thrown 2931 innings compared to Eickoff’s grand total of 6 innings. Colon was struck on his right hand by a pitch early in his last start. Possibly as a result, Colon was rocked for 9 hits and 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings. In his previous start Colon held the Pirates to 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings.
4:10 pm Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
When Will Miller Win a Game?
Perhaps leading the league in bad breaks, Atlanta’s Shelby Miller is wondering if and when he will get win number 6. Even though he has a 3.11 era in his last 17 starts, Miller hasn’t won a game during that 17 inning stretch. In fact, in 19 of his 25 starts Miller has allowed 2 runs or less. Yet his record is 5-10. His 2.50 era is testament to the fact that the Braves just can’t score runs when Miller is on the bump. He’ll go for the 18th straight time in search of win number 6 today at Turner Field. Miller has a superb 2.01 era in 12 starts at Turner, but evidently it doesn’t translate into wins. Miller is just 2-5 at Turner. Another indication of the meager run support supplied by his teammates, Miller has a 2.82 era post All-Star break but is 0-5 in 7 starts.
4:10 pm Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Narveson Makes First MLB Start Since 2012 Against Bucs
After spending all of 2013 pitching in Japan, Christopher Gregg Narveson gets his first start since 2012 against the Pirates today. Narveson has made 6 appearances from the pen where he is 0-1 with a 3.86 era and a 0.94 whip. The 33 year old Narveson only threw 2 innings in the majors in 2013 in relief allowing 0 runs. He spent the balance of 2013 in the minors where he was 4-7 with Triple-A Nashville with a 5.14 era. In the Dominican Winter League thereafter he went 2-1 with a 1.98 era. That prompted the Yakult Swallows to sign Narveson for 2014 where he went 4-11 with a 4.53 era as a starter. In 2015, prior to his trip to the Marlins, Narveson was 2-3 with a 4.58 era with Jupiter and New Orleans.
FREE PLAY – Mets/Phillies – OVER 8.5 -105
Mets @ Phillies
Colon is 1-2, 6.18 in his last five starts (over 4-1).
Eickhoff threw six shutout innings in winning his MLB debut (75 PT).
Mets won 11 of last 12 games with Philly; five of last six went over total. New York won six of last seven games; eight of their last nine went over total. Phillies won four of their last seven; six of their last eight went over total.
Padres @ Nationals
Ross is 0-1, 4.00 in his last three starts; his last three road starts went over.
Gonzalez is 0-2, 12.91 in his last two starts; six of his last seven went over.
Padres lost four of last five games with Washington; five of last six series games went over. San Diego won seven of last ten games (over 9-2 in last 11). Nationals won fiveof last seven games (over 6-3-1 in last ten).
Rockies @ Braves
Flande is 2-0, 3.90 in his five starts (over 3-2) this year.
Miller is 0-3, 4.02 in his last five starts; eight of his last nine stayed under.
Colorado won six of last seven games with Atlanta; four of last six stayed under the total. Rockies lost nine of last 12 games (over 7-5). Braves are 1-8 in their last nine games (over 6-3).
Pirates @ Marlins
Locke is 0-2, 6.43 in his last four starts; over is 4-0-2 in his last six.
Narveson is making first start since 2012; he was 21-17, 4.86 in 56 starts for the Brewers in 2010-11.
Pirates won nine of last 12 games with Miami; last five stayed under total. Pittsburgh won ten of last 13 games; six of last seven stayed under. Marlins lost five of last seven games; over is 6-4-1 in their last eleven.
Dodgers @ Reds
Anderson is 1-2, 6.88 in his last three starts (under 4-2-1 in his last seven).
Holmberg is 0-3, 9.22 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.
Dodgers won their last four games with Cincinnati; three of last five series games went over. LA lost five of last six games, scoring 14 runs- six of last seven stayed under. Reds lost 10 of last 11 games (over 4-2 in last six).
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
Lackey is 1-2, 3.67 in his last five starts; his last three went over.
Corbin is 2-0, 4.50 in his last five starts (over 4-1).
St Louis won 10 of last 12 games with Arizona; under is 7-3-1 in last 11 series games. D’backs won four of last six games (over 4-1-1). Cardinals won their last three games (over 4-0-1 last five), scoring 24 runs.
Cubs @ Giants
Hendricks is 1-0, 7.24 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.
Peavy is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three starts (over 3-2 last five at home).
Cubs won last five games with the Giants (over 4-1); Chicago won last six games overall, scoring 40 runs (over 8-3 in last 11). SF lost five of its last six games; under is 5-2-2 in their last nine games
Astros @ Bronx
McHugh is 1-2, 1.67 in his last four starts; nine of his last ten stayed under.
Pineda is making first start since July 24; he 0-2, 6.94 in his last two starts– four of his last five stayed under.
Astros lost three of last five games with Bronx; six of last eight in series stayed under total. Houston won six of last eight games (under 7-1). Bronx lost four of last six games overall; under is 7-5-1 in their last thirteen.
Angels @ Tigers
Santiago is 0-3, 5.67 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Verlander is 0-2, 1.80 in his last three starts; Detroit scored seven runs in his last four outings– five of his last six stayed under.
Angels won their last eight games with Detroit (under 5-3); Halos gave up 51 runs in losing four of last five games- six of their last seven went over. Tigers lost last five games, allowing 31 runs; four of their last six stayed under.
Twins @ Rays
Duffey is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts (over 2-1 in his MLB starts).
Archer is 0-1, 2.84 in his last three home starts; three of his last four starts overall went over the total.
Minnesota lost four of last seven games with Tampa Bay; over is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Twins won last five games, scoring 37 runs; four of their last six stayed under. Rays won three of last five (under 4-3 in last seven).
Orioles @ Royals
Chen is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts (under is 6-3-1 in his last ten).
Cueto is 2-0, 0.53 in two home starts for KC; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
Orioles lost their last eight games with Kansas City; under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Baltimore lost seven of last eight games; four of their last five stayed under total. Royals won nine of last 11 games (over 3-1-1 last five).
Blue Jays @ Rangers
Price is 3-0, 1.78 in his last four starts; six of his last eight stayed under.
Lewis is 6-1, 3.38 in his last seven starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Toronto won five of last six games with Texas; eight of last 11 games stayed under total. Blue Jays won six of last seven games; they scored 42 runs in last four– their last six went over. Rangers won eight of last 11 games (under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games).
Red Sox @ White Sox
Porcello is 0-2, 6.43 in his last three starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten.
Sale is 3-0, 2.11 in his last three starts; five of his last six went over.
Red Sox lost four of last six games with Chicago; eight of last nine series games got over total. Boston won five of last eight games; over is 13-1-1 in its last fifteen games. White Sox won four of last six games; seven of their last eight went over.
A’s @ Mariners
Bassitt is 1-1, 1.59 in his last four starts; five of his last six stayed under.
Hernandez is 2-3, 8.48 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.
Oakland lost eight of last 11 games with Seattle; A’s are 4-10 in their last 14 games overall, but scored 24 runs in last three games, winning twice. Mariners lost seven of last 11 games (over 8-2-1).
Brewers @ Indians
Nelson is 3-0, 2.04 in his last six starts; (over 3-2 in last five on road).
Anderson is 0-2, 10.70 in his last four starts (over 3-1 in last four).
Brewers won eight of last ten games with Cleveland; last six went over the total. Milwaukee lost five of last seven games (over 5-0-1 in last six). Indians lost three of last four games; over is 6-3 in their last nine.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
NY-Phil– Colon 11-13 (2-9 last 11); Eickhoff 1-0
SD-Wsh– Ross 14-12 (9-3 last 12); Gonzalez 13-10 (1-4 last 5)
Pitt-Mia– Locke 13-11; Narveson 0-0
Col-Atl– Flande 3-2; Miller 10-15 (1-11 last 12)
LA-Cin– Anderson 12-12; Holmberg 1-4
StL-Az– Lackey 13-12 (1-4 last 5); Corbin 5-4 (4-1 last 5)
Chi-SF– Hendricks 14-10 (5-0 last 5); Peavy 5-6
Hst-NY– McHugh 15-10 (0-3 last 3); Pineda 11-8
LA-Det– Santiago 12-12 (1-5 last 6); Verlander 2-10
Minn-TB– Duffey 2-1; Archer 15-11
Tor-Tex– Price 18-7/3-1; Lewis 13-12 (6-1 last 7)
Balt-KC– Chen 15-9 (5-1 last 6); Cueto 2-3
Bos-Chi– Porcello 9-11 (3-9 last 12); Sale 15-9
A’s-Sea– Bassitt 3-6; Hernandez 16-9
Mil-Clev– Nelson 13-12 (6-1 last 7); Anderson 4-4 (0-3 last 3)
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
NY-Phil– Colon 8-24; Eickhoff 0-1
SD-Wsh– Ross 8-26; Gonzalez 2-23
Pitt-Mia– Locke 6-24; Narveson 0-0
Col-Atl– Flande 2-5; Miller 5-25
LA-Cin– Anderson 9-24; Holmberg 1-5
StL-Az– Lackey 5-25; Corbin 1-9
Chi-SF– Hendricks 6-24; Peavy 2-11
Hst-NY– McHugh 8-25; Pineda 7-19
LA-Det– Santiago 8-24; Verlander 3-12
Minn-TB– Duffey 1-3; Archer 6-26
Tor-Tex– Price 4-25; Lewis 5-25
Balt-KC– Chen 6-24; Cueto 0-5
Bos-Chi– Porcello 4-20; Sale 8-24
A’s-Sea– Bassitt 1-9; Hernandez 7-23
Mil-Clev– Nelson 8-25; Anderson 2-6
NY-Phil– Five of last seven Dreckman games stayed under.
SD-Wsh– Four of last five Davidson games went over.
Pitt-Mia– Six of last eight Fagan games stayed under.
LA-Cin– Four of last five Nelson games stayed under.
Col-Atl– Five of last seven Carapazza games went over.
StL-Az– Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Hoberg games.
Chi-SF– Last three Blakley games went over the total.
Hst-NY– Home side won 11 of last 13 Holbrook games.
LA-Det– Over is 3-1-1 in last five Scott games.
Min-TB– Four of last six Baker games stayed under.
Bos-Chi– Underdogs won seven of last nine Miller games (over 4-1 L5).
Balt-KC– Four of last five West games went over total.
A’s-Sea– Five of last seven Schrieber games went over.
Tor-Tex– Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Hickox games.
Mil-Clev– Home side won last six TWelke games.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | MILWAUKEE at CLEVELAND
Play Against – Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CLEVELAND) poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
89-88 since 1997. ( 50.3% | 52.5 units )
9-16 this year. ( 36.0% | -2.5 units )
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | HOUSTON at NY YANKEES
Play On – All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (NY YANKEES) with a slugging percentage of .330 or worse over their last 3 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest
122-60 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.0% | 48.1 units )
12-9 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.8 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | ST LOUIS at ARIZONA
ST LOUIS is 69-31 (+29.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was: ST LOUIS (4.2) , OPPONENT (2.8)
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 93-48 (+38.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.4)
Favorites dominanted the diamond Tuesday night
Favorites were the side to back in Major League Baseball action Tuesday night, with the teams laying chalk going 12-3 straight up yesterday.
That is a high cash rate of 80.0 percent in a week that has already been profitable for bettors backing favorites have gone 59-36.
Game of the Day: Blue Jays at Rangers
♦ Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (+162, 8.5)
David Price has been spectacular since joining the Toronto Blue Jays last month but he has rarely fared well in Texas, where he will pitch Wednesday in the continuation of a three-game series with the Rangers. Price is 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA in his career against the Rangers, easily his highest ERA against an American League opponent.
Price has been even worse at Globe Life Park in Arlington, where the former Cy Young Award winner has been pounded for 21 runs in 25 2/3 innings across five rocky outings. Price will be tasked with trying to keep alive the latest winning streak for the Blue Jays, who took their fourth straight game by scoring twice in the top of the ninth inning in Tuesday’s series opener. The rally gave Toronto a one-game lead in the American League East and dropped the Rangers 4 1/2 back in the West. Texas, which has a half-game lead for the second wild-card spot, has listed second baseman Rougned Odor as day-to-day after he injured his right middle finger fielding a grounder Tuesday.
TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, SNET (Toronto), FSN Southwest (Texas)
LINE HISTORY: The Rangers opened in the +152 vicinity, but are now +162. The total has remained at 8.5.
INJURY REPORT: Blue Jays – 2B Devon Travis (15-day DL, shoulder). Rangers – 2B Rougned Odor (Questionable, hand), LF Josh Hamilton (15-day DL, knee).
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s under clear skies. Wind will blow in from leftfield at around 6 mph.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Do the Jays deserve to be No. 1 in our Rankings? After all, they passed the Cards in run differential and are now the #1 team in that category in the Majors. But they haven’t been able to dominate their division the way the Cards have, so for now, they’ll have to settle for tops in the AL. The Rangers continued to show they’re serious about trying to win this season as they acquired OF Will Venable from the Padres. It’s a minor acquisition, but Venable could be a key addition, especially in light of Josh Hamilton’s third trip to the DL this season, last week.” Big Al McMordie.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays LH David Price (12-4, 2.40 ERA) vs. Rangers RH Colby Lewis (14-5, 4.29)
Price yielded two runs in eight frames in a win over the Los Angeles Angels on Friday to improve to 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA since joining the Blue Jays. That effort also left him 8-2 with a 1.96 mark in 13 road starts this season. Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus has feasted on Price, going 10-for-23 with five RBIs and six walks.
Lewis blanked Detroit over seven frames on Friday to win for the sixth time in his last seven starts. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 15 outings and has not issued more than two walks since June 25. The veteran will be careful when facing Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, who is 4-for-12 with two homers and six walks against Lewis.
* Blue Jays are 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Texas.
* Over is 4-0 in Lewis’ last four home starts vs. Blue Jays.
* Rangers are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Over is 6-0 in Blue Jays last six road games.
CONSENSUS: Sixty-seven percent are backing the Blue Jays.
100* MLB – Over 8 – Reds/Dodgers
50* MLB – Giants -115
Chicago Cubs +103 over SF Giants
(System Record: 67-3, won last 2 games and a push)
Overall Record: 67-63-3
(System Record: 23-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 23-22-4
This match is happening in ?????
(System Record: 806-26, won last game)
Overall Record: 806-656-124
Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today…
Colorado Rockies + Atlanta Braves OVER 7.5
Houston Astros +118 over New York Yankees
Arizona Dbacks -117 over St. Louis Cardinals
Basketball – nothing yet
Paul Shinoba Sports Consulting
Houston Astros/New York Yankees – Under 7.5 runs
2-1 yesterday after going 3-1 the day before.
DOC SPORTS INVESTORS
#910 Take Atlanta -140 over Colorado (Money Line Bet)
#913 Take Chicago Cubs -110 over San Francisco (Money Line Bet)
#917 Take Oakland/Seattle – UNDER 7 Runs (Total Runs Scored)
91-63 (59.1%) and up +20.03 units.
Totals 4 You MLB Report
American League baseball Daytime Dominator!!!!!
Houston/New York – Over 7 1/2
MLB Best Bets
Colorado/Atlanta – Under 7 1/2
Chicago/San Francisco – Over 7
Los Angeles/Detroit – Under 8
Boston/Chicago – Over 7 1/2
Screen Shot – MLB Wednesday
Brewers @ Indians — There are several reasons to like the Brewers on Wednesday night. Cleveland’s Cody Anderson is coming off the DL to make this start. He gave up 10 hits in 2.2 innings pitched to Milwaukee back on July 22nd. Anderson allowed 21 runs in his last four starts before going on the DL. Jimmy Nelson is 7-1 with a 2.39 ERA over his last 11 starts for Milwaukee. Nelson has 132 strikeouts in 155 innings of work this season, and he’ll be facing an inconsistent Cleveland offense. No line has been posted as of yet on this game, but I like the Brewers in this spot.
Red Sox @ White Sox — Boston’s Rick Porcello comes off the disabled list for this start, and he gets a tough assignment in Chicago. Porcello’s last start before getting hurt came at home against Chicago; he allowed 6 runs and 10 hits in two innings. Porcello has allowed 12 runs and 20 hits in his last two starts against the White Sox in Chicago. Gordon Beckham (15-32), Melky Cabrera (12-22), Adam Eaton (4-9), Avisail Garcia (7-15), and Geovany Soto (4-7) have all had success versus Porcello. The line is too high for me at -180, but I would only back the White Sox in this game.
Twins @ Rays — Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer is a perfect 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in four career starts against Minnesota. Earlier this year, Archer beat the Twins in Minnesota after holding them to just 1 run and four hits in six innings of work. Brian Dozier (0-10), Eduardo Nunez (2-9), Oswaldo Arcia (0-7), and Eduardo Escobar (1-7) have had the most trouble against Archer. Another game where the line is too pricey (-195), but Tampa Bay is the preferred side in this game.
A’s @ Mariners — Felix Hernandez is in bad current form for Seattle right now. He is 2-3 with an ugly 8.48 ERA in his last five starts. Hernandez has allowed 16 runs and 27 hits over his last three outings. He only had 11 strikeouts in those games. However, King Felix has allowed just 7 runs and 23 hits in his last three starts against Oakland, a team he owns a 2.63 ERA against in his career. Chris Bassitt is pitching well for the A’s despite just one win in nine appearances. Bassitt has a 2.31 ERA as a starter with a 45/10 strikeout/walk ratio. I like Under 7 (-115) in this game.
Pirates @ Marlins — Jeff Locke is 3-4 with a 6.02 ERA in ten road starts for Pittsburgh this season. In his last start, Locke gave up 6 runs and 11 hits in five innings pitched to the Giants. Miami is hitting .279 versus left-handed starters, so Locke’s struggles will continue here. Chris Narveson is 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against Pittsburgh. I lean to Miami (+140 or more) in this game.
MLB Game: Boston Red Sox (925) @ Chicago White Sox (926)
Time: Wednesday 08/26 8:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Chicago -1.5 (+110) at Americasbookie
Boston’s pitching staff is terrible and they are stuck with a $20-million dollar bust in Rick Porcello (5.81 ERA, 5-11) for this one. He is 1-6 on the road with a 6.83 ERA. Boston is on a 4-13 run on the road and the Red Sox are 9-28 away against a left-handed starter. They face one of the best in the game in ace Chris Sale, with the White Sox 35-17 when he is a home favorite. The team is 7-3 his last 10 starts with the wins by 7, 2, 6, 7, 4, 2 and 1 run, an average final score of 6-2 in those wins. Sale was brilliant on Saturday, striking out 14 Mariners over seven innings in an 11-4 win. The Chicago Bullpen has been outstanding of late, as well, posting a 1.68 ERA over the past 18 games. Play the White Sox on the runline.
J.R STEVENS SMOOTH44
Today’s MLB Top Picks
(915) Houston +120
(917) Oakland +145
10,000 Unit MLB Lock
St Louis Cardinals -110 over Arizona
Exodus to Black
50 DIME – OVER – DETROIT vs LA ANGELS
BREAKFAST CLUB (11-3 ALL PICKS L4 DAYS!)
New York Yankees ML
Afternoon ANNIHILATOR (11-3 ALL PICKS L4 DAYS!)
Seattle Mariners ML
PERSONAL FAVORITE (11-3 ALL SPORTS L4 DAYS!)
Chicago White Sox ML
Minnesota Twins ML
MY SYSTEM PICKS
Mariners -145 (3u)
Jays -1.5 -110 (2u)
Rockies +137 (1u)
WE PICKS SPORTS – MLB
Houston/New York – Over 7.5 (-110) 4* 1:05 ET
Detroit (-130) 5* 7:08 ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) 5* 7:10 ET
STEEL CITY CAPPERS
1* NY Yankees ML
300* NY Yankees ML
A.L. (3*) TRIPLE TOTAL OF THE MONTH! — OVER 8 – Tigers / Angles
Note:This total is now at 9. Still a play at 9.
INDIAN COWBOY – WNBA
4* Over 152.5 – LA Sparks vs Indiana Fever
SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS
Risk 3.00 to win 2.11  Pittsburgh Pirates -142 vs Miami Marlins
Risk 3.00 to win 2.07  Kansas City Royals -145 vs Baltimore Orioles
Risk 3.00 to win 2.73  St. Louis Cardinals -110 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Risk 2.00 to win 1.90  Chicago Cubs -105 vs San Francisco Giants
3* STAR BLOCKBUSTER! — Arizona Diamondbacks ML
Bonus play – Philadelphia Phillies ML
*MLB WISEGUY Pittsburgh Pirates -140
*MLB WISEGUY Toronto Blue Jays -175
*MLB WISEGUY Kansas City Royals -140
3 star: OVER 7 – Baltimore vs Kansas City
Silver Play: TEXAS
POWER PLAY WINS
POWER PLAY OF THE DAY – KANSAS CITY ROYALS -140 (CUETO)
Teyas Sports GUAR ESPN NL TOTAL
GUARANTEE – CUBS vs GIANTS – OVER 7
BRAVES – UNDER 7 1/2
#1 Sports MLB Selections
500,000* Major League Bases 8-Run Rout of the Month!!!!!
Los Angeles Dodgers – 145
MLB Best Bets
Miami + 145
Atlanta – 135
Boston + 165
Milwaukee + 145
#1 Sports The Guaranteed Stratosphere Release
San Francisco Giants – 110
Blue Ribbon —- St. Louis Cardinals+110
free play…Blue Jays -170
20 Dime – St Louis Cardinals -110 — (Lackey / Corbin)
Hot Shot Sports
4* Over 7 – Cubs/SF
SB Professor Original MLB Picks
Mets/Phillies – Over 8.5 runs
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER – MLB
7* St. Louis Cardinals ML
J.R STEVENS SMOOTH44
Tonight’s MLB Top Picks
(902) Philadelphia +140
(909) Colorado +135
(921) Minnesota +180
(924) Texas +165
(925) Boston +190
(929) Milwaukee +140
10* Arizona Diamondbacks ML
8* Atlanta Braves ML
7-0 last two days,
912 Arizona Diamondbacks -102
RIVER CITY SHARPS – MLB
White Sox TT Over 4 (-110) Porcello’s first start off DL…Last start vs. White Sox, he lasted two+ innings of work and gave up six runs and 10 hits. He has gone 0-3, 7.90 ERA in last three starts vs. these White Sox and we think the Chicago bats come alive again tonight
St. Louis Cardinals (-106) Cardinals have dominated this recent series, winning 11 of last 12 games between these two squads, and while Corbin has pitched well in his return, he was very shaky last outing and one wonders whether the arm is starting to tire a bit coming off surgery. We ride the hotter team here that loves to hit in Chase Field
Baltimore Orioles (+130) More a “gut” play than anything else, although Chen has been really solid lately for these Orioles, going 2-0, 1.86 ERA over his last three starts. Cueto was roughed up in last outing and we think the O’s may get to him once again tonight. A bit of a curious line to us as well…appears they are really wanting KC backers at that price
Phillies TT Over 3.5 (-130) Colon is just 1-4, 6.08 ERA over his seven starts since the All Star break. Wouldn’t be surprised to see lots of runs scored here tonight and the game total OVER might also be worth a look, but we’ll gladly spend the extra juice to get the hot hitting Phils at 3.5.
8 Unit Side Play ·  Pittsburgh Pirates
Louisville Slugger Wed Aug 26th, 2015 7:10pm EDT
ROBERT FERRINGO – MLB
7-Unit Play. Take #905 Pittsburgh (-140) over Miami (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 26)
2-Unit Play. Take #923 Toronto (-1.5, -110) over Texas (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 26)
INDIAN COWBOY – MLB
7* Detroit Tigers ML over LA Angels
Paul Shinoba Sports Consulting
earlier – Houston Astros/New York Yankees under 7.5 runs (L)
Mets/Phillies – Over 8.5
Padres/Nationals – Over 7
Baltimore/Kansas City – Under 7
LA Angels/Detroit – Under 9
Dave Essler | MLB Total Wed, 08/26/15 – 7:05 PM
dime bet – 920 DET / 919 ANA – OVER 8
Falcon Sports — (they are running hot)
2 units Kansas City Royals -1 -110
2 Units Dodgers/Reds – OVER 8 -115
3* UNDER – milwaukee
2* Atlanta Braves
Brewers – 1st 5 +.5 $250 (-125)
Pirates ML $250 (-140)
Orioles ML $250 (+140)
Rockies/Braves – Under 7.5 $500 (-120)
200* Over Mets
GP FROM VEGAS
Cubs/Giants – F5 Over 3.5 -120
Marlins/Pirates – F5 Over 4 -125
Reds/Dodgers – F5 Over 4.5 -110
Orioles – F5 +.5 -115
Brewers – F5 +.5 -125
Braves – F5 -150
Vinny The Gambler
Win $300 Each
NATIONALS – OVER 3.5 *TEAM TOTAL* -115
NY METS – OVER 4.5 *TEAM TOTAL* -104
$500 PIRATES-ML -145
78% COMPREHENSIVE SYSTEM BASEBALL WINNER
922 Tampa Bay w/Archer -190 7:10 EST
THE BOOK REPORT
The book is reporting it needs…
Baltimore ML (large)
Atlanta ML (large)
Washington ML (regular)
For reference, Washington ML is on the “higher end” of a regular need but has not reached the threshold for what I consider a large need. If it’s possible to call it a “big regular”, so be it.
500,000♦ release on the White Sox and Chris Sale on the Run Line at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago against Rick Porcello and the Red Sox. It’s a run line release; you gotta list the pitchers. The Pale Hose are +105 as of 11:5 in the morning here in Miami where I’m based.
BETTING AS A BUSINEES
Under 9 (-105) LAA (Santiago) / Detroit (Verlander) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Under)
Exodus to Black
Over 8 – mets
DIAMOND DOG SPORTS – MLB
#919: Angels: +130 (1*)
#921/922: Twins/Rays: Under 7.0 (-120) (0.5*)
CHRIS JAMES SPORTS
OVER – LAA/DET
100 DIME – NEW YORK CREW – TORONTO BLUE JAYS RL-1.5
JLB SPORTS INFO
$200 *MLB* BLUE JAYS -ML -179
‘OO’ Under 7 – CWS
4% CHICAGO CUBS
STEEL CITY CAPPERS
Betting First Look Show with Marco D’Angelo
San Francisco Giants ML