Five To Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, August 25, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
So did you see the no-hitter by Houston’s Mike Fiers on Friday against the Dodgers? It sure looked like he had some sort of weird substance on the inside of his glove. If MLB’s commissioner was Roger Goodell, he probably would have been suspended for half the season. But MLB cleared Fiers, so I guess that’s that. You see pitchers licking their fingers and such all the time, and technically that’s not allowed. Fiers has denied having any substance. Monitor his next start because Fiers threw a career-high 134 pitches in the no-no. Fiers, acquired at the trade deadline with Carlos Gomez from Milwaukee, had never thrown a complete game in 58 starts over five seasons before the no-hitter.
♦♦ Astros at Yankees (+118, 8)
This game will have live betting at sportsbooks as it’s nationally televised by the MLB Network. Potential playoff preview here as the Yankees have a slim lead in the AL East entering Monday and the Astros have a four-game edge in the AL West. If the playoffs did start today these two would square off in the ALDS with the Royals facing the wild-card winner. It’s AL Cy Young favorite Dallas Keuchel (14-6, 2.37) for Houston. Last time out, Keuchel held the Rays to two runs over seven innings. What was unusual is that Keuchel didn’t get a decision for the first time since June 4. The Yanks’ Chase Headley is 3-for-10 with a homer off him. Carlos Beltran is 3-for-7 with a homer. New York goes with Ivan Nova (5-5, 3.72). He lost against Cleveland last time out, allowing three runs over five innings. Houston’s Jed Lowrie is 4-for-8 off him. Jose Altuve is 1-for-2 with an RBI.
Key trends: Houston is 1-6 in Keuchel’s past seven on the road. The Yanks are 1-6 in their past seven vs. lefties. The “over/under” is 7-1 in Keuchel’s past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-1-1 in Nova’s past nine.
Early lean: Astros and over.
♦♦ Padres at Nationals (-145, 7)
San Diego catcher Derek Norris had to sit out Sunday’s game with a wrist injury but is expected back in the lineup on Tuesday. He was crossed up on a pitch and took it off the wrist on Saturday. Norris is hitting .246 with 13 homers and 54 RBIs. He will be catching James Shields (9-5, 3.74) in this one. He was very good last time out, ending a streak where the Padres had lost five straight of his starts. Shields shut out Atlanta on five hits over six innings. Washington’s Yunel Escobar is 6-for-29 with an RBI off him. Bryce Harper has never faced Shields. The Nats’ Stephen Strasburg (7-6, 4.22) has looked great since returning from the DL, allowing three earned runs over 20 innings in three starts. In five career starts versus San Diego, Strasburg is 4-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Matt Kemp is 2-for-8 with four strikeouts against him.
Key trends: The Padres are 4-0 in their past four series openers. They are 1-6 in Shields’ past seven on the road. The Nats are 3-7 in Strasburg’s past 10 series openers. The under is 6-1 in his past seven overall.
Early lean: Nationals and under.
♦♦ Mets at Phillies (+185, 8)
New York finally was set to get back third baseman David Wright on Monday. Wright, who last played in the majors on April 14, had been dealing with spinal stenosis in his lower back. Don’t expect him to play every single day, however. The early reports are that he will get Thursday off. For this one, it’s rookie Noah Syndergaard (7-6, 3.17) for the Mets. He might be hitting the rookie wall with a 6.19 ERA over his past three starts. He blanked the Phillies over 7.1 innings on May 27. The Phils go with Jerome Williams (4-9, 6.10). He was pummeled last time out, allowing eight runs and eight hits, walking four, over 1.2 innings in Miami. He has a 5.73 ERA in 11.0 innings this season against the Mets. Kelly Johnson is 9-for-25 with two RBIs off him. Wright is 0-for-3 with three walks.
Key trends: The Mets are 0-4 in Syndergaard’s past four on the road. The Phils are 0-4 in Williams’ past four vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0-1 in Williams’ past five on Tuesday.
Early lean: Mets and over.
♦♦ Twins at Rays (-138, 7.5)
Minnesota wasn’t expecting All-Star closer Glen Perkins back until Tuesday, but a bullpen session went well enough over the weekend that he pitched Sunday against the Orioles and got the win. He escaped a two-on, two out jam by striking out fellow All-Star Adam Jones in the 11th inning. Had the game not gone extras, the team wouldn’t have used him. The Twins start Ervin Santana (2-4, 5.53) in this one. They have lost his past five and Santana has allowed at least four runs in four of those. He’s 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA in that stretch. John Jaso is a career .381 hitter off him with a homer and six RBIs in 21 at-bats. Tampa Bay’s Nathan Karns (7-5, 3.44) held Houston to a run over six innings in his last outing. He hasn’t suffered a loss since July 9. Only a few Twins have ever faced him. Joe Mauer is 1-for-1 with a double.
Key trends: The Rays are 2-8 in their past 10 after an off day. They are 1-4 in Karns’ past five vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Santana’s past six on the road.
Early lean: Rays and over.
♦♦ Orioles at Royals (-135, 8)
Baltimore lost shortstop J.J. Hardy to the disabled list due to a groin injury over the weekend. He has had an injury-plagued season and the team might be better off with Ryan Flaherty playing short. Hardy is batting just .222 with .253 on-base and .315 slugging percentages in 93 games this season and was 4-for-38 in his past 12 games. You might see Manny Machado at short occasionally as well. Baltimore starts Miguel Gonzalez (9-9, 4.73) here. He might be in danger of losing his rotation spot. Gonzalez allowed seven runs over five innings last time out vs. Minnesota. Kansas City’s Jarrod Dyson should get a start here as he’s 5-for-6 career off Gonzalez. Royals lefty Danny Duffy (6-6, 4.18) allowed four runs over five innings last time out vs. Boston. He hasn’t faced Baltimore this season. Adam Jones is 1-for-6 off him. Matt Wieters is 1-for-3 with a double.
Key trends: The Orioles are 0-5 in Gonzalez’s past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Royals are 1-5 in Duffy’s past six vs. the AL East. The over is 8-3 in Gonzalez’s past 11. The under is 9-1 in Duffy’s past 10.
Early lean: Royals and under.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: ‘Overs’ aplenty at Safeco Field
By Jeese Schule
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major-league schedule:
The Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging over 6.5 runs per game, batting .322 since July 25th. They’ve won 18-of-28 games during that span, and return home from a successful road trip to host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals lost 2-of-3 in San Diego, and could be in for a tough series against a hot Diamondbacks team.
Runs At Wrigley
The Cubs are on a roll, winners of 13 of their last 16. They come off a four game sweep of the Braves at Wrigley, out-scoring Atlanta 40-14 in those games. They’ve gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and that trend could continue in the Windy City as they host the Indians on Monday.
Blue Jays Battery
The Jays broke another record this weekend, scoring the most runs in a three game series in club history (36) in a sweep of the Angels in Anaheim. Toronto has seized the top spot in the AL East, moving a half game up on the Yankees. The Jays will be in Texas this week, and you should expect fireworks in Arlington.
*Josh Donaldson was 4-for-5 with a double, a home run and six RBIs on Saturday, helping the Jays beat the Angels by a score of 15-3 in Anaheim. He became the first player in the majors to reach 100 RBIs, and he second on the American League with 34 home runs.
*Yoenis Cespedes is proving to be a valuable acquisition for the Mets, and he had himself quite a series in Colorado over the weekend. Cespedes was 7-for-15 with three home runs and eight RBIs in a three game sweep of the Rockies.
*Madison Bumgarner did it again on Friday, hitting another home run in a win over the Pirates in Pittsburgh. He had a double, a home run and a pair of RBIs in his previous start.
*Mike Fiers tossed a no-hitter at home versus the Dodgers on Friday, striking out 10 in a 3-0 win. He’s now 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts since coming over from Milwaukee. His next start comes on the road in Minnesota on Friday.
We think of Safeco as one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors, but that hasn’t been the case lately. The Mariners have seen the total go over at a rate of 20-5-3 in their last 28 home games. Their bullpen can take a lot of the blame, only two teams in the majors (Oakland and Colorado) rank worse than the Mariners who’s releivers own a 4.45 ERA this season.
*David Wright is set to return to the lineup for the Mets on Monday as they face the Phillies. He’s batting .433 with a home run and eight RBIs in 30 career at bats versus Aaron Harang, who will start on Thursday.
*C.C. Sabathia left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, and he’ scheduled to have an MRI on Monday. With a record of 4-9 with a 5.27 ERA, the Yankees aren’t likely to rush him back.
*Gusts of 13 mph are expected at AT&T Park Tuesday for the Giants’ tilt with the Chicago Cubs.
Mets lights out versus weaker competition
The New York Mets are dominating weaker competition, owning an 18-4 record in their last 22 games against teams with losing records.
New York takes on Philadelphia (50-74) Tuesday in the City of Brotherly Love. Noah Syndergaard and Jerome Williams are the probable starters for the Mets and Phillies, respectively.
The Mets are currently -190 moneyline favorites at online sportsbooks.
Keuchel, Astros struggling mightily on the road
Houston Astros ace Dallas Keuchel has been money at home lately, but it’s been a different story on the road.
The ‘Stros are a measley 1-6 in Keuchel’s previous seven outings away from Minute Maid Park. He’ll be on the bump at Yankees Stadium Tuesday against Ivan Nova and the Bronx Bombers.
As of this writing, the line for the game was off the board.
WNBA Betting Recap
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes (from Monday, Aug. 17 through Sunday, Aug. 23)
— Favorites went 9-6 straight up
— Underdogs went 8-7 against the spread (ATS)
— Road teams posted a 8-7 SU record
— Road teams posted a 10-5 ATS record
— The ‘under’ went 9-6
Team Betting Notes
— Tulsa (13-14) is on the comeback trail after some injury issues, capping off a perfect 2-0 week with a win Saturday over Connecticut (12-14), a team on a slide. The Shock have won and covered three straight heading into their game Friday against L.A.
— Speaking of the Sun, Connecticut dropped their fourth straight, and they’re now 5-13 in their past 18 games after starting out 7-1. One thing that is a sure thing with the Sun – the over. The total has gone over in six in a row for the Sun.
— Atlanta (10-16) has alternated wins and losses in each of their past six games. More importantly, they’re 4-1 ATS over their past five games, and the ‘over’ has hit in nine of their past 11 outings. They have a rematch with Connecticut Tuesday at home after winning 102-92 on the road Sunday in the first end of the home-and-home.
— Chicago (17-11) completed a home-and-home sweep of Washington (15-11), and it is their first back-to-back victories since Aug. 2-4 against Washington and Indiana.
— Indiana (17-9) inched by New York (18-8) by an 80-79 count, as the Fever has now won six in a row and 14 of the past 17. The Fever also have covered five of their past six while the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the past five.
— Los Angeles (10-17) had a winning week, going 2-1 SU/ATS, with both victories and covers coming on the road. Next up is a trip to red-hot Indiana Wednesday. The two sides just met Aug. 18 with the Fever blasting the Sparks 79-68 in L.A.
— Phoenix (17-10) restored order Sunday against Minnesota (19-9), snapping an uncharacteristic three-game slide for the Mercury. The Merc also snapped an 0-3 ATS skid. Despite the cover they are still just 4-11 ATS over the past 15 games.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Under – Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )
WNBA | CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Against – Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) after allowing 75 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more
59-38 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.8% | 0.0 units )
3-6 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Against – Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) off an road win where they scored 85 or more points, in August or September games
65-30 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
Federer’s US Open odds get boost with win in Cincinnati
With Roger Federer’s straight set win over Novak Djokovic in the Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati Sunday, Federer’s odds to win the U.S. Open got a boost, going from 7/1 to 5/1, according to the Westgate LV Superbook.
Djokovic, the World No. 1 seed heading to Flushing Meadows, moved from Even money to 11/10.
Djovokic is looking for his second U.S. Open title and first since 2011, while Federer will try for his sixth U.S. Open, but first since 2008.
Sports bettors can benefit from an unfair NFL schedule
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Talk to any professional handicapper and they’ll tell you that even the most rudimentary analysis of a game will include at least a cursory situational study.
In essence, it’s essential to determine whether or not one team enjoys an advantage over the other thanks to a factor such as additional rest. A simple example of what we’re talking about here would be recognizing that in 2014, NFL teams coming off a bye week during the regular season to face an opponent that had played a game the week before went just 9-17 straight up and 10-16 against the spread. In this small sample size, the extra week of rest clearly didn’t serve as a profitable angle for those wagering on the bye week club.
Back in June, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote a compelling piece about Dr. Murat Kurt and his research team, who presented a paper at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in February on imbalances contained within the annual NFL schedule.
The essential point of both Fittipaldo’s story and Kurt’s research presentation was a focus on how teams face unique challenges during the regular season due to the fact that they’ll occasionally encounter opposition with the added advantage of both extra rest and preparation time.
Kurt and his team’s presentation was so impressive that it led to a call from Mike North, who serves as the Director of Scheduling for the National Football League, in regards to whether or not both parties could assist one another to create a more balanced schedule on a year-to-year basis.
This, of course, got us thinking as to how teams playing opponents with additional rest faired against the pointspread. So we went back and tracked the data from both 2002 (when the NFL shifted to an eight-division format) to the present, as well as a five-year study from 2010-2014.
Below are our findings.
ATS: Against the spread
OVER: This pertains to the Over/Under for each game in question
*Indicates a profitable angle worth considering.
BYE WEEK VS. NO BYE WEEK
Let’s begin with a look at how teams coming off the bye week performed against opponents who played a game the week before.
230-184-1 SU (.555)
210-197-8 ATS (.515)
195-214-6 OVER (.476)
Since 2002 AT HOME off bye week vs. no bye week
149-89-1 SU (.626)
115-121-3 ATS (.487)
111-124-4 OVER (.472)
88-75 SU (.539)
76-83-4 ATS (.477)
78-81-4 OVER (.490)
Since 2010 AT HOME off bye week vs. no bye week
51-32 SU (.614)
35-47-1 ATS (.426)
*46-35-2 OVER (.567)
Analysis: What you’ll notice here is simple and can be summed up in one sentence: Bookmakers are well aware of the fact that teams coming off a bye week enjoy an advantage over opponents who played a game the week before, thus, their point spreads are altered to include this perceived edge.
Over the last five years alone, home teams off a bye week facing an opponent who played a game the week before are winning at an impressive 61.4 percent clip, but are covering the spread just 42.6 percent of the time. In reality, rather than looking to bet on the well-rested team in these situations, gamblers should be looking to fade them, as that approach would have resulted in a winning percentage of 57.4 percent over the last five years.
What this tells us is that perhaps both bookmakers and gamblers are overcompensating in regards to their pointspreads in these situations, creating a profitable angle for those looking to fade the bye week club.
OFF THURSDAY NIGHT GAME VS. OPPONENT OFF SUNDAY GAME
The following analysis focuses on teams that played a Thursday night game the week prior going up against opponents who played on Sunday the week prior.
102-106 SU (.490)
101-105-2 ATS (.490)
*112-91-5 OVER (.551)
Since 2002 AT HOME off Thursday night game vs. opponent off Sunday game
45-39 SU (.535)
43-41 ATS (.511)
42-41-1 OVER (.506)
61-60 SU (.504)
59-61-1 ATS (.491)
*66-51-4 OVER (.564)
Since 2010 AT HOME off Thursday night game vs. opponent off Sunday game
30-20 SU (.600)
27-23 ATS (.540)
25-24-1 OVER (.510)
Analysis: While Kurt’s research presentation uncovered competitive advantage situations within the annual NFL schedule, our research indicates that bookmakers have corrected that imbalance within their respective point spreads, effectively eliminating the possibility of creating a profitable angle for gamblers.
However, as it pertains to teams coming off a Thursday game playing teams coming off a Sunday game, there is one area to monitor very closely: When you identify all of these situations that have occurred over the last five seasons, you’ll notice that the Over is cashing at the profitable 56.4 percent rate.
OFF THURSDAY NIGHT GAME VS. OPPONENT OFF MONDAY GAME
These situations have been few and far between since 2002, but have still produced some intriguing results.
5-8 SU (.384)
*4-9 ATS (.307)
*11-2 OVER (.846)
Since 2002 AT HOME off Thursday night game vs. opponent off Monday game
2-1 SU (.666)
1-2 ATS (.333)
*3-0 OVER (1.000)
4-7 SU (.363)
*3-8 ATS (.272)
*9-2 OVER (.818)
Since 2010 AT HOME off Thursday night game vs. opponent off Monday game
2-0 SU (1.000)
1-1 ATS (.500)
*2-0 OVER (1.000)
Analysis: Exercise caution in regards to how much emphasis you place upon these results due to the limited nature of the sample size. But be sure to take inventory of one critical area in regards to this research: These situations, whether at home or on the road or since 2002 or since 2010, have produced extremely lucrative results for gamblers who have played the Over.
So make sure your weekly NFL handicapping sessions dedicate at least some time to identifying whether or not any of these situations will be in play the coming week.
Stay patient, pick your spots and best of luck this week.
Mets @ Phillies
Mets are 1-8 in Syndergaard road starts; he is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over the total.
Williams is 1-2, 5.92 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1).
Mets won ten of last 11 games with Philly; four of last five went over total. New York won five of last six games; seven of their last eight went over total. Phillies won four of their last six; five of their last seven went over total.
Padres @ Nationals
Shields is 0-1, 4.42 in his last three road starts; his last four starts overall went over the total.
Strasburg went to San Diego State; he is 4-1, 1.51 in his last six starts; six of his last seven stayed under the total.
Padres lost three of last four games with Washington; four of last five series games went over. San Diego won seven of last nine games (over 8-2 in last 10). Nationals won four of last six games (over 5-3-1 in last nine).
Rockies @ Braves
Bettis is making first start since July 18; he is 1-2, 8.55 in his last four starts. Four of his last five starts went over.
Foltynewicz is 0-2, 12.54 in his last two starts; his last four all went over.
Colorado won five of last six games with Atlanta; three of last five stayed under the total. Rockies lost nine of last 11 games (over 7-4). Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games (over 6-2).
Pirates @ Marlins
Morton is 2-0, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine.
Hand is 2-1, 3.13 in his last four starts (over 2-2).
Pirates won nine of last 11 games with Miami; last four stayed under total. Pittsburgh won ten of last 12 games; five of last six stayed under. Marlins lost five of last six games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten.
Dodgers @ Reds
Wood is 1-2, 5.01 in his last four starts.
Lamb is 0-1, 6.35 in his first two MLB starts (over 2-0).
Dodgers won their last three games with Cincinnati; three of last four series games went over. LA lost its last five games, scoring nine runs- five of their last six stayed under. Reds lost nine of last ten games (over 4-1 in last five).
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
Garcia is 2-0, 1.69 in his last four starts (under 4-0-1 in last five).
Ray is 0-4, 5.48 in his last four starts (under 4-0).
St Louis won ten of last 11 games with Arizona; under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. D’backs won four of last five games, scoring 29 runs; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight. Cardinals split last eight games (over 3-0-1 last four).
Cubs @ Giants
Arrieta is 4-0, 0.99 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
Cain is 0-2, 7.01 in his last five starts; over is 5-0-2 in his last seven.
Cubs won last four games with the Giants (over 3-1); Chicago won last five games overall, scoring 32 runs (over 7-3 in last ten). SF lost four of its last five; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games
Astros @ Bronx
Keuchel is 2-1, 2.60 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Nova is 1-2, 5.19 in his last three starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Astros lost three of last four games with Bronx; six of last seven in series stayed under total. Houston won five of last seven games (under 7-0). Bronx lost three of last five games overall; under is 7-4-1 in their last twelve.
Angels @ Tigers
Weaver is 1-1, 2.60 in his last three starts; three of his last four went under.
Simon is 1-1, 2.57 in his last two starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Angels won their last seven games with Detroit (under 5-2); Halos gave up 44 runs in losing last four games- five of their last six went over. Tigers lost last four games, allowing 23 runs; four of their last five stayed under.
Twins @ Rays
Santana is 0-4, 9.11 in his last five starts (under 5-1 in last six on road).
Karns is 2-0, 3.33 in his last five starts; (over 2-0-1 last three at home).
Minnesota lost four of last six games with Tampa Bay; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Twins won last four games, scoring 26 runs; four of their last five stayed under. Rays won three of last four (under 4-2 in last six) games.
Orioles @ Royals
Gonzalez is 0-3, 7.82 in his last five starts; seven of last ten went over.
Duffy is 2-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; nine of his last ten stayed under.
Orioles lost their last seven games with Kansas City; under is 5-4 in last nine series games. Baltimore lost six of last seven games; three of last four stayed under total. Royals won eight of last ten games (over 3-0-1 in last four).
Blue Jays @ Rangers
Buehrle is 2-1, 4.70 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.
Holland is 1-1, 3.68 in his two starts this year (under 1-0-1).
Toronto won four of last five games with Texas; eight of last ten games went under total. Blue Jays won five of last six games; they scored 36 runs in last three– their last five went over. Rangers won eight of last ten games (under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games).
Red Sox @ White Sox
Miley is 2-0, 188 in his last two starts; four of his last six went over.
Quintana is 1-1, 4.01 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
Red Sox lost three of last five games with Chicago; seven of last eight series games got over total. Boston won five of last seven games; over is 12-1-1 in its last fourteen games. White Sox won three of last five games; six of their last seven went over.
A’s @ Mariners
Chavez is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts- they all stayed under.
Seattle lost last eight Montgomery starts (0-4, 8.15); over is 2-0-1 in his last three.
Oakland lost seven of last ten games with Seattle; three of last five stayed under the total. A’s are 4-9 in their last 13 games overall, but scored 19 runs in winning last two. Mariners lost seven of last ten games (over 7-2-1).
Brewers @ Indians
Peralta is 2-2, 604 in his last four starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine..
Tomlin is 1-1, 2.03 in his two starts this season (under 2-0).
Brewers won eight of last nine games with Cleveland; last five went over the total. Milwaukee lost four of last six games )over 4-0-1 in last five). Indians are 3-2 in last five games, but scored only seven runs in last three– over is 5-3 in their last eight. .
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
NY-Phil– Syndergaard 9-9; Williams 7-13
SD-Wsh– Shields 12-14 (3-11 last 14); Strasburg 8-8 (5-1 last 6)
Pitt-Mia– Morton 12-4 (5-0 last 5); Hand 3-4
Col-Atl– Bettis 8-5; Foltynewicz 6-8
LA-Cin– Wood 9-16/1-3; Lamb 0-2
StL-Az– Garcia 7-5 (4-0 last 4); Ray 4-11
Chi-SF– Arrieta 17-8 (9-1 last 10); Cain 4-5
Hst-NY– Keuchel 17-8; Nova 5-5
LA-Det– Weaver 8-10; Simon 14-9 (5-1 last 6)
Minn-TB– Santana 3-6 (0-5 last 5); Karns 11-13
Tor-Tex– Buehrle 14-10; Holland 1-1
Balt-KC– Gonzalez 12-11; Duffy 12-7 (7-2 last 9)
Bos-Chi– Miley 12-13; Quintana 10-15
A’s-Sea– Chavez 7-15; Montgomery 4-11 (0-8 last 8)
Mil-Clev– Peralta 6-8; Tomlin 1-1
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
NY-Phil– Syndergaard 6-18; Williams 7-20
SD-Wsh– Shields 7-26; Strasburg 4-16
Pitt-Mia– Morton 8-16; Hand 3-7
Col-Atl– Bettis 3-13; Foltynewicz 6-14
LA-Cin– Wood 8-25; Lamb 1-2
StL-Az– Garcia 2-12; Ray 2-15
Chi-SF– Arrieta 4-25; Cain 4-9
Hst-NY– Keuchel 4-25; Nova 1-10
LA-Det– Weaver 5-18; Simon 3-23
Minn-TB– Santana 1-9; Karns 11-24 (3 of last 3)
Tor-Tex– Buehrle 13-24; Holland 1-2
Balt-KC– Gonzalez 6-23; Duffy 3-19
Bos-Chi– Miley 7-25; Quintana 14-25
A’s-Sea– Chavez 6-22; Montgomery 4-15
Mil-Clev– Peralta 5-14; Tomlin 0-2
NY-Phil– Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Bellino games.
Pitt-Mia– Home side won five of last six O’Nora games.
Col-Atl– Under is 8-4 in last twelve Knight games.
StL-Az– Over is 9-5-1 in last fourteen Fairchild games.
Hst-NY– Underdogs won 12 of last 16 Cooper games.
Bos-Chi– Over is 8-5 in last thirteen Ripperger games.
Balt-KC– Under is 15-3-1 in last nineteen Tumpane games.
A’s-Sea– Four of last five Reynolds games stayed under.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
Play On – Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), playing on Tuesday
64-54 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.2% | 39.2 units )
8-15 this year. ( 34.8% | -4.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | MILWAUKEE at CLEVELAND
Play Against – Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CLEVELAND) poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
89-88 since 1997. ( 50.3% | 52.5 units )
9-16 this year. ( 36.0% | -2.5 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 103-51 (+38.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.7)
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | ST LOUIS at ARIZONA
ST LOUIS is 66-27 (+27.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
The average score was: ST LOUIS (4.1) , OPPONENT (2.9)
MLB Tuesday Scouting Edge
4:05 pm New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Syndergaard Tries to Shake Slump and Road Woes
We are familiar with the Mets’ pitching staff and it’s a good one. Noah Syndergaard has been a big part of that rotation. He’s 7-6 with a 3.17 era. But something has happened in his last 3 starts. He’s gone 1-1 with a 6.17 era in his last 3. Tampa Bay started his funk when they knocked him around for 8 hits and 5 runs in just 4 innings in Tampa. He faced the Rockies at home and went 7 innings allowing 4 hits and 3 runs. Back on the road at Baltimore he gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings. The road has not been Syndergaard’s friend this year. He’s 0-5 with a 5.44 in 9 road starts. He went 7 1/3 against Philly at home this season shutting them out.
4:08 pm Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Flailing Angels Look to Weaver for Help
About the only thing that has gone good for the Angels in the past couple of weeks is Jered Weaver. He’s made 3 starts since departing from the DL and has a 2.08 era in those 17 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he can’t expect much help from an Angel offense that is suffering. The Halos have won only 4 of their last 13 games and have been swept by both Toronto and Kansas City. They were able to sweep the White Sox in between being swept themselves. They’ve only scored 37 runs in their last 13 games and an average of 2.8 runs per game won’t cut it. 4 Tigers are hitting over .300 against Weaver and Ian Kinsler has tagged him for 2 round trippers.
4:10 pm Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
Dodgers May Be Able to Score Some Runs for a Change
The Dodgers come into Cincinnati on a 5 game losing streak. They’ve scored a total of 9 runs in those 5 losses. The Reds may be just what the Dodgers need. In their last 4 game series in LA, the Dodgers captured 3 of the 4 games scoring 18 runs. The Dodgers only average 3.8 runs per game on the road and 3.9 runs per game overall. They are holding on to a slim lead over the injury depleted Giants and their bullpen makes winning a close game nearly impossible. The LA pen has a 5.20 era on the road which is no doubt MLB’s worst. They face a lefty tomorrow in John Lamb and they should be happy to see him. In his last appearance vs the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine they crunched him for 5 runs and 8 hits in 6 innings. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs in a game since then.
4:10 pm Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
Twins Eye Wild Card After Sweeping Baltimore
After being swept by the NYY in New York, the Twins gathered themselves and went to Baltimore where they dealt a serious blow to Baltimore’s playoff hopes by sweeping the O’s in 4. After blowing the O’s out 15-2 in the first game of the series, the Twins won 3 straight 1 run decisions. The Twins were dogs in every game. The Twins have a shot at the Wild Card as well. They are tied with the slumping Angels for the 3rd spot. Since Tampa is just 1 behind the Twins. Tampa Bay still has some hope. They are 7 games behind the surging Jays and only .5 games behind the O’s. Being just 1 game back of Minnesota, the Rays can make up ground with victories here. Erving Santana goes for the Twins. He is 0-4 with an8.46 era in his last 5 starts. He’s had issues with the long ball. The Rays send out Nathan Karns who is 7-5 with a 3.44 era. He’s had 9 quality starts.
6:40 pm St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Garcia Out for Revenge Against D-Backs
Jaime Garcia has had a helluva year. He’s got a record of just 5-4 but his ear is a sparkling 1.79 and his whip is only 0.93. And even though he got the win, there’s a game against Arizona in May that he’d like to take back. Garcia faced Arizona in St. Louis and was tagged for 4 runs and 8 hits in just 6 innings. It was the first time he had faced the D-Backs since 2013. Garcia seems to be well prepared for revenge, especially when we look at his recent work. He’s 2-2 on the road this season with a 1.32 era. He’s 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 1.25 era.
FREE PLAY – Chicago Cubs – 135
100* MLB – Angels -115
100* MLB – Over 8 Rockies/Braves
MLB – (Action)
4* (968) Tigers +$105
3* (966) Yankees +$102
(Lines from Americasbookie)
Teyas Sports GUAR BIG MLB DOG
GUARANTEE — SD PADRES +150
RANGERS – OVER 9 1/2
W.SOX – OVER 8 1/2
#1 Sports The MLB Baseball
500,000* Baseball Money-Line Underdog of the Year!!!!!
San Diego Padres + 150
MLB Best Bets
Pittsburgh – 145
LA Dodgers – 145
Chicago Cubs – 130
Toronto – 130
#1 Sports The Guaranteed Stratosphere Release
New York Yankees + 115 over Houston
Chicago Cubs -133 over SF Giants
(System Record: 66-3, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 66-63-3
Connecticut Sun + Atlanta Dream UNDER 159.5
(System Record: 22-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 22-22-4
Wehen + Werder Bremen II – OVER 2
This match is happening in Germany
(System Record: 805-26, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 805-656-124
Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today…
Cincinnati Reds + LA Dodgers – OVER 8.5
New York Mets + Philadelphia Phillies – OVER 8
Tampa Bay Rays + Minnesota Twins – UNDER 7.5
Indiana Fever -2 over New York Liberty
Chicago Sky +2 over Washington Mystics
10* Cincinnati Reds ML
10,000 Unit MLB Lock
Atlanta Braves -115 over Colorado
Totals 4 You MLB Report
August’s Major League Line-Crusher of the Month!!!!!
Houston/New York – Under 7 1/2
MLB Best Bets
Colorado/Atlanta – Over 8
Toronto/Texas – Under 9 1/2
Boston/Chicago – Under 8 1/2
Baltimore/Kansas City – Over 8
GOM *3* – Royals / Orioles – Over 7.5
MLB Game: St. Louis Cardinals (961) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (962)
Time: Tuesday 08/25 9:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Arizona +116 (moneyline) at Americasbookie
The St. Louis Cardinals opened their series with Arizona with a convincing win last night. However, things haven’t been so easy for this team on the road, and the big soft spot for this club has been their inability to be effective against left-handed pitching. The Cardinals average 4.1 runs a game, but that drops sharply vs. left-handed pitching, averaging 3.5 a contest. St. Louis is just 17-15 on the season vs. a left-handed starter, and have a negative return for the year. Arizona has been a .500 team at home, and this one looks like it should be a toss-up, so the value lies with the home dog. Take Arizona.
Play New York Mets -180 over Philadelphia (TOP MLB PLAY)
Philadelphia has lost 79 of the last 139 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 41 of the last 59 games when playing as an underdog of +175 to +250. Philadelphia has lost 58 of the last 102 games after having won four or five of the last six games and they have
lost 12 of the last 18 games when playing on a Tuesday.
HOT CHICKS PICKS – Britney Deluca
Take THE DODGERS -140 to dodge a close one!
Take THE ANGELS -115 to tame the cats!
Take BALTIMORE +130 to fly high above the royal city!
Take SAN FRANCISCO +130 to stand tall at home!
SIMON – SOCCER (+4.89)
ENGLAND LEAGUE CUP- (UNDER 2.5 +100) LEICESTER CITY @ BURY (145PM)
ENGLAND LEAGUE CUP- (ASTON VILLA -210) NOTTS COUNTY @ ASTON VILLA (145PM)
JR. STEVENS SMOOTH44
MLB Top-Rated Picks
(964) San Francisco +135
(973) Boston +120
(975) Baltimore +130
(979) Milwaukee +140
*Always shop for the best line
Screen Shot – MLB Tuesday
A’s @ Mariners — The bottom has fallen out on Seattle’s Mike Montgomery. He is 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA over his last eight starts for the Mariners. His last victory came way back on July 5th when he beat Oakland 2-1. Montgomery only pitched 5.2 innings in that game while giving up 1 run and six hits. Jesse Chavez has never beaten the Mariners in five career starts. In two outings against Seattle this year, Chavez has allowed 8 runs and 14 hits. Despite Montgomery’s recent struggles, I’ll lean with the Mariners (-115) in this game.
Red Sox @ White Sox — Jose Quintana has never lost to the Red Sox in four career starts. He had a win over the Red Sox in Boston back in July; he allowed 2 runs and six hits in 6.1 innings of work. Overall, Quintana’s 2015 season has been an interesting one with just one win in eleven home starts despite a 3.66 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Wade Miley has been Boston’s most consistent starter as of late. He has won two straight starts, and he’ll be facing a Chicago team that is only hitting .216 against left-handed pitching. Under 8 (-115) looks like the way to play this game.
Twins @ Rays — Minnesota’s Ervin Santana is in terrible current form. He is 0-4 with an ugly 8.46 ERA over his last five outings. Tampa Bay’s Nate Karns owns a poor 4.04 ERA at home this season. But Minnesota is only hitting .226 on the road, and just .244 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is only hitting .238 against right-handed starters, and just .239 in dome games this season. Under 7.5 was more attractive than the current total of 7 being dealt.
Dodgers @ Reds — John Lamb is making his third Major League start for Cincinnati. It will be his second start against the Dodgers in just over 10 days. Lamb lost in Los Angeles after giving up 5 runs and eight hits in six innings. The southpaw pitched okay in his second start against the Diamondbacks, giving up nine hits in 5.1 innings of work. LA’s Alex Wood got the win after holding the Reds to 3 runs and five hits. The Dodgers are laying -150 in this game, but that price is too high on the road because their bullpen is so awful.
20 Dime – NY Mets / Phillies – Over 8.5 – (Syndergard / Williams)
(2*) LA Dodgers ML
DOC SPORTS INVESTORS
#973 Take Boston +120 over Chicago White Sox (Money Line Bet)
#967 Take LA Angels -115 over Detroit (Money Line Bet)
#976 Take Kansas City -135 over Baltimore (Money Line Bet)
89-62 (58.9%) and up +19.03 units.
INDIAN COWBOY – MLB
7* LA Angels ML
*MLB Wiseguy Washington Nationals -170
*MLB Wiseguy Los Angeles Dodgers -145
*MLB Wiseguy Chicago Cubs -135
SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS
Risk 4.00 to win 3.48  Los Angeles Angels -115 vs Detroit Tigers
Risk 4.00 to win 2.70  Pittsburgh Pirates -148 vs Miami Marlins
Risk 3.00 to win 3.66  Texas Rangers +122 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Risk 5.00 to win 3.57  Kansas City Royals -140 vs Baltimore Orioles
Risk 5.00 to win 4.72  St. Louis Cardinals -106 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Risk 5.00 to win 3.79  Chicago Cubs -132 vs San Francisco Giants
POWER PLAY WINS
POWER PLAY OF THE DAY – PITTSBURGH PIRATES -165 (MORTON)
Yankees +115 over Astros
Tuesday Night MLB Team Total
DETROIT TIGERS – OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)
These Tigers have seen a lot of Weaver of his career and several ‘key’ Tigers have had good success vs him as well. We do have a nice weather pattern for this game tonight as well. I also like the fact that Weaver really does his best work at HOME over the last few years. Add on the fact that the Angels bullpen is not a strong one (especially their middle relief) and I fully expect these Tigers to plate at least 4 runs before all the dust settles in this game. I’m all over the OVER 4 RUNS for these Tigers tonight.
15 DIME play on Detroit and Alfredo Simon at home against Los Angeles and Jered Weaver. List both pitchers. The Tigers are +105 as of 6:25 A.M. Pacific.
500,000♦ release on the Giants and Matt Cain at AT&T Park in San Fran against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. Gotta list the pitchers. The Giants are +120 as of 8:00 in the morning here in Miami where I’m based.
Paul Shinoba Sports Consulting
Kansas City Royals -135 over Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros/New York Yankees – Under 7.5 runs
Oakland Athletics/Seattle Mariners – Over 7.5 runs
Went 3-1 yesterday for plus 20 units.
RIVER CITY SHARPS – MLB
Minnesota Twins (+130)
New York Yankees (+121)
Rockies – TT Over 3.5 (-130)
Dodgers – TT Over 4 (-125)
ROBERT FERRINGO -MLB
7* KC Royals ML-130
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER – MLB
6* KC Royals ML
spartan | MLB Money Line Tue, 08/25/15 – 7:05 PM
dime bet – 966 NYY (+125) vs 965 HOU
Free Pick – 976 KAN (-133) vs 975 BAL
Tigers ML $250 (+118)
Indians ML $500 (-155)
Cardinals ML $500 (-120)
Orioles/Royals – OVER 8 $1000 (-110)
WE PICK SPORTS – MLB
Houston (-130) 7* 7:05
Cincinnati (+115) 5* 7:10
Play New York Mets -180 over Philadelphia—Top Play
Jerome Williams has lost 49 of the last 82 games when playing as an
underdog of +100 or higher and he has lost 52 of the last 92 games when
the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jerome Williams has lost 24
of the last 41 night games and he has an ERA of 6.13 in his last three
Play Pittsburgh -140 over Miami—Top Play
Brad Hand has lost 22 of the last 33 games when the total posted is
between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 22 of the last 32 games when
pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher. Brad Hand has lost 18 of the
last 30 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he has
lost 17 of the last 27 night games.
BONUS MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
Play Kansas City -130 over Baltimore (MLB Bonus Play)
Play Cleveland -130 over Milwaukee (MLB Bonus Play)
10* American League PERSONAL FAVORITE (10-1 ALL L3 DAYS!)
Play on: Tampa Bay Rays -140
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE (10-1 w/ ALL PICKS L3 DAYS!)
Play on: Cleveland Indians -137
ARTHUR RALPH SPORTS
Super Pick — Cubs -140
Trophy play —- KC Royals -145
free play… Pirates -150
MLB PARLAY OF THE MONTH! — ATLANTA BRAVES ML & OVER 8
DIAMOND DOG SPORTS – MLB
#956: Marlins: +135 (2*)
#953/954: Padres/Nationals: Over 7.0 (+105) (2.5*)
SB Professor Original MLB Picks
11THOUR – MLB
7u: 952 PHI+200
1st 5. PHI+205.
965 HOU-136 1st 5.
968 DET OVER 4.5 1st 5.
DET OVER 9gm.
956 MIA OVER 4 1st 5.
MIA OVER 7.5gm.7u:
970 TB-.5 1st 5(+130).
CLE-.5 1st 5(+115).
CLE-1.5gm(+135). 8 UNDER
962 ARI+113 1st 5.
PICK EMPIRE SPORTS
POD: 8:05 pm ET Toronto blue jays (-132) 10 units
GP FROM VEGAS
Dodgers/Reds – F5 Over 4 -110
Mets/Phillies – F5 Over 4 -125
Marlins F5 +.5 -115
Braves/Rockies – Over 8 +100
Angels/Tigers – Over 9 -120
3* Toronto 3
3* Under – stl vs az
Exodus to Black
Pittsburgh – Over 7.5
LA Dodgers – Over 8
Tampa Bay – Over 7
Texas – Over 9
100 – Rockies / Braves – Over
ist 5innings Miami +1/2 (-110)
OVER – Tigers
10* LA Angels
10* St. Louis Cardinals
8* KC Royals
8* Blue Jays
Steel City Cappers
2* Houston Astros -140
Game of the Day: Cubs at Giants
♦ Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants (+136, 6.5)
A day off came at an opportune time for the San Francisco Giants, who return home from a 2-5 road trip to begin a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. Having had the previous day to rest could prove beneficial as the Giants attempt to slow down the red-hot Cubs, who improved to 20-4 over their last 24 games when Kris Bryant belted a walk-off homer in Monday’s 2-1 win over Cleveland.
Bryant is batting .347 with six home runs in his last 20 games for the Cubs, who have won five straight and hold a 6 1/2-game lead over the Giants for the second National League wild-card spot. Chicago plays 17 of its next 23 games away from Wrigley Field and will be without right fielder Jorge Soler (oblique) and reliever Jason Motte (shoulder) for the next 3-4 weeks as both were placed on the disabled list Monday. The injury bug also has affected the Giants, who have struggled offensively without right fielder Hunter Pence (oblique) and second baseman Joe Panik (back). The Giants trail the Dodgers by 1 1/2 games in the NL West and need more production from Buster Posey, who is hitting .128 since Aug. 14.
TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, WGN (Chicago), CSN Bay Area (San Francisco)
LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened in the +115 range but are now around +136. The total has remained at 6.5.
Cubs – 2B Addison Russell (Questionable, groin),
RF Jorge Soler (15-day DL, oblique).
Giants – CF Angel Pagan (15-day DL, knee),
RF Hunter Pence (15-day DL, oblique),
2B Joe Panik (15-day DL, back).
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to centerfield at around 14 miles per hour.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “In a major blow, the Giants were forced to put outfielder Hunter Pence on the DL for the third time this season with an oblique strain. The Giants are 34-18 in games in which Pence has played (vs. 32-40 without him).” Big Al McMordie.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (15-6, 2.30 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (2-3, 5.66)
Arrieta improved to 9-1 in his last 12 starts with another stellar outing on Thursday, when he struck out seven over six scoreless innings of a 7-1 win over Atlanta. “He’s one of the best I’ve caught,” Cubs catcher Miguel Montero told reporters. “He’s a competitor. He’s a gamer. You can see the fire.” Arrieta held San Francisco scoreless over 7 2/3 frames on Aug. 9 and is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in three career outings against the Giants.
Cain held St. Louis to two runs in six innings on Wednesday after going 0-2 with an 8.24 ERA in his previous four starts. The 30-year-old has reason to be encouraged after retiring 11 of the final 13 batters he faced. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-18 with eight strikeouts against Cain, who is 6-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 16 career starts versus Chicago but 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA over his last six at home in the all-time series.
* Cubs are 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in San Francisco.
* Cubs are 21-5 in their last 26 overall.
* Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home underdog.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-two percent are backing the visiting Cubs.
Vinny The Gambler
Win $500 Each
TEXAS RANGERS – OVER 4 *TT* +105
ORIOLES – OVER 3.5 *TEAM TOTAL* -104
CARDINALS -ML -120
OVER – Oakland vs Seattle
ONE & ONLY TRIPLE TOTAL OF THE YEAR! — UNDER 8 – STL vs ARIZONA
JLB SPORTS INFO
$300 *MLB* MARINERS -ML -107
First Look Show with Marco D’Angelo
Chicago Cubs ML
SAN FRNCISCO GIANTS +125 at home versus the Chicago Cubs.