After an all-day NBA slate to celebrate MLK Day, there are only two games on the schedule tonight. But we are still bringing you a Thunder Nuggets free pick.
In one of those games, the Denver Nuggets host the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets come into this game as big favorites (-9.5), but there’s a reason for that.
Denver have dominated OKC in recent years. The Nuggets are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 H2H games and 5-0 ATS in the last five H2H games at home. However, this point spread might be a little big to cover.
We’re going to target the over/under betting market tonight.
Game: Oklahoma City Thunder (6-6 / 7-5 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (6-7 / 4-9 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 19th 2021 at 9:05PM ET
Where: Ball Arena in Denver, CO
Line: Nuggets -9.5 Total: 220.5
TV Coverage: FS Oklahoma
OKC comes into this game shorthanded, as they’re still without Al Horford. Isaiah Roby has been starting in his place and he has been playing well in his 24-25 MPG.
The big problem for the Thunder is they lack firepower. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the lone stud in OKC this season. He’s averaging 21.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 6.2 APG, but he lacks consistency.
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The Thunder rank #27 in points scored (106.0 PPG). Denver don’t have the best defense, as they rank #20 in points allowed (112.5 PPG), but the Thunder’s offense is terrible.
No Trouble Scoring
Denver can put up points in a hurry. They average 115.4 PPG (5th). Nikola Jokic comes into this game averaging a triple-double (25.0 PPG, 11.4 RPG and 10.3 APG). Roby isn’t going to be able to stop him.
What could end up happening tonight is that the Nuggets run away with this game early. The question is, what impact will this have on tonight’s Thunder Nuggets free pick?
Jokic may not even be needed in the 4th quarter. Denver have a deep rotation, but outside of Jokic and Jamal Murray (20.3 PPG), the team is struggling, especially without Michael Porter Jr.
MPJ remains out with COVID-19 and he won’t be playing tonight.
Thunder Nuggets Free Pick
If you look at the betting trends, three of the last four H2H games have gone over. However, only one of those games ended up with 221+ points scored and that game went to overtime.
OKC aren’t as tough defensively this season as they have been in the past, but they still get after it pretty well and should be able to keep the Nuggets from exploding offensively.
Thunder Nuggets Free Pick: Under 220.5 (-110)
Free Pick By Scott Jack