Sunday Night Football Week 11

By Don Phillips
November 22
Cincinnati at Arizona
8:25
NBC
Sunday Night Football, Cincinnati’s helmsman Andy Dalton looked alarmingly bad on Monday night, posting 157 yards and 0 TDs for the first time since Week 15 of 2014. He also struggled 2 weeks prior in a 1-score, 2-INT outing in Pittsburgh. A matchup with Arizona’s buzzing secondary doesn’t give much hope for a bounce-back. However, Seattle put up 32 points last Sunday versus Arizona. For Giovani Bernard Arizona presents a tough matchup, as they allow only 3.6 YPC. Todd Gurley’s the only RB to top 88 yards against them. The good news for Bernard is that Jeremy Hill has regressed this season, opening the door for more rush attempts. Hill handled a season-low 7 carries on Monday night. He averaged only 2.1 yards per pop, dropping his season average to 3.2. Consistently outplayed by Gio Bernard, Hill now seems reliant on finding the end zone. That’s tough to expect against an Arizona defense that’s allowed only 4 RB scores this season.
Marvin Jones has been increasingly involved in the Bengals’ offense, but remains a tertiary target most weeks, with talented targets all over this offense as competition for attention.A.J.Green owns only 1 TD since Week 4. And he’s gone cold lately with 9 catches and 120 yards over the past 2 weeks – despite favorable matchups. A matchup with elite CB Patrick Peterson is unlikely to bring about elite upside. Eifert really struggled on Monday night football, catching 3 of 7 targets for 26 yards. A matchup in Arizona doesn’t provide much relief, although the Cardinals nearly surrendered a big day to the slumping Jimmy Graham.
While the Bengals have enjoyed a favorable QB schedule, they haven’t allowed a QB to post 2+ TDs since Week 3. Of course, I am still confident that Palmer will post strong totals. He just dropped a 363-3-1 line in Seattle, giving him 6 games with 300+ yards this season. He takes a hit if Michael Floyd (hamstring) can’t play, but he still has plenty of weapons. Andre Ellington’s coming off a game with only 8 touches. But in a game against Seattle, he used those to gain 61 rushing yards (plus 1 score) and 27 receiving yards. Despite early-season injury troubles, Ellington remains an explosive NFL RB.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 53% of the time since 1992. (148-131)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 52.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (18-16)
Key Player Injuries

CINCINNATI
[CB] 11/19/2015 – Adam Jones “?” Sunday vs. Arizona ( Foot )
[DT] 11/19/2015 – Pat Sims “?” Sunday vs. Arizona ( Knee )
[T] 11/16/2015 – Andre Smith “?” Sunday vs. Arizona ( Concussion )
ARIZONA
[WR] 11/19/2015 – John Brown “?” Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Hamstring )
[G] 11/19/2015 – Jonathan Cooper “?” Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Knee )
[CB] 11/19/2015 – Justin Bethel probable Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Flu )
[G] 11/16/2015 – Mike Iupati “?” Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Neck )
[DE] 11/15/2015 – Cory Redding “?” Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Ankle )
[WR] 11/15/2015 – Michael Floyd “?” Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Hamstring )
[S] 10/15/2015 – Chris Clemons IR ( Hamstring )
[LB] 10/13/2015 – Kenny Demens out indefinitely ( Knee )
[TE] 09/10/2015 – IfeanyiMomah out indefinitely ( Knee )
[DL] 09/04/2015 – Corey Peters IR ( Achilles )
[LB] 09/04/2015 – Daryl Washington out indefinitely ( Suspension )

Selection: Cincinnati +4.5 Over 48

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