Are you ready for today’s Santos Teixeira free pick? UFC Vegas 13 (UFC on ESPN+ 40) is tonight in Las Vegas from the APEX facility.
Before I get into tonight’s pick, check out last week’s UFC win, where I picked Bryce Mitchell to beat Andre Fili. You can see it here at my Mitchell Fili free pick article.
Thiago Santos (21-7) lost his last fight to Jon Jones last year, but he’s getting back in the cage in the main event tonight against veteran Glover Teixeira (31-7) who is on a four-fight win streak.
Teixeira has always struggled against the best competition he has fought throughout his career, but he has dominated most of his other opponents and he continues to do so at 41 years old.
UFC Vegas 13: Santos vs Teixeira – Preview
Fight: Thiago Santos (21-7) vs. Glover Teixeira (31-7)
When: Saturday, November 7th, 2020
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada
Santos vs. Teixeira Betting Odds
- Fight Odds: Santos (+205) vs. Teixeira (-225)
The moneyline odds on this fight haven’t moved too much since opening at America’s Bookie. Santos opened up as a -220 favorite and he has been bet up slightly to -225 at the time of publishing.
- Fight Odds: Over 1.5 Rounds (-155) vs. Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
For some reason, the public likes this fight ending early on, but I wouldn’t bank on that happening tonight. There are several reasons I expect this fight to go over the round total.
Santos vs. Teixeira – Tale of the Tape
First off, Santos has had a lengthy layoff since losing to Jones. He took a lot of punishment in that fight and I expect there to be a bit of cage rust when he comes out in the cage tonight.
Santos is likely to settle down and pick up a stoppage win eventually, though.
He has 15 TKO/KO wins, but Teixeira comes into the fight with 18 TKO/KO wins. Both guys have KO power, but Teixeira has actually been doing a lot better with submissions lately as well.
Santos Teixeira Free Pick
These two Brazilians are going to put on a show in the UFC Vegas 13 main event.
Santos has the edge in striking (4.44 SLpM vs. 3.74 SLpM) and striking defense (2.19 SApM vs. 3.87 SApM), but Teixeira has the edge in takedowns and submission attempts.
Teixeira has only been knocked out in the first-round once in his long career and he has only been stopped three times (3 TKO/KO losses), while Santos has been stopped five times.
My Santos Teixeira free pick best bet on this fight is over 1.5 rounds (-155).
UFC Vegas 13 Free Pick: Santos vs. Teixeira Over 1.5 Rounds (-155)
Free Pick By Scott Jack