SportsLine review: a big media company's picks desk, priced low, with records shown in short windows

A media company's picks desk

SportsLine belongs to a big media company (the footer gives the copyright to CBS Interactive Inc.), and it reads like one: odds pages, fantasy tools, promo-code articles for sportsbooks and a picks product in the middle of it. This review is about the picks product, which the site sells as SportsLine Pro.

The pitch is two things. First, a roster of experts, with bios that run from data analysts to a former Las Vegas book director. Second, a computer model that, the site says, simulates every game 10,000 times and turns out against-the-spread, total and moneyline picks. On top of that come prop projections (the home page counted 344 NFL player props that day) and a members' chat room on a third-party platform where experts talk through the card.

The price is one subscription for everything: $13.99 a month, $39.99 for three months or $139.99 a year, with taxes on top where they apply. New Pro members also get the parent company's streaming service included, according to the join page. Next to most pick sellers that's cheap. If you've read what cappers are, you'll know why price matters: a picks fee is a second vig, and $14 a month is a small one.

What a pick shows

Here SportsLine does something I want to see. Every pick on the home page shows the time it was made, the book it was taken at and how many units it's worth: 0.5, 1.0, 1.5. The pick itself and its price are behind the paywall, but the time stamp and the size are out in the open. A pick made at 1:32 p.m. for an 8 p.m. game, logged at one named book, is a pick you can check against the line at that hour.

Units are the weak spot. The picks have unit counts, but nothing I read says what a unit is worth in dollars or how the profit figures are worked out. A "+1082" next to a record means something only once you know the size of the bet behind it.

How the records are sold

Look at how the records are quoted. "42-34-3 in last 79 MLB picks." "25-14 in last 39 MIN ML picks." "6-0-1 last 7 NHL (100%)." Each expert is shown at his best cut: one sport, one bet type, sometimes one team, over however many games make it look good. None of those lines is false, as far as I know. But a record cut to the best 7 games out of a career is advertising, and the "Hottest Experts" box is built that way on purpose.

You need about 52.4 percent at -110 just to break even. A coin-flipper who makes 20 picks goes 14 and 6 or better about 6 times in 100, so with a few dozen experts and dozens of categories each, somebody is always on a run. What I'd want is each expert's whole record, every pick, at the price taken, over a few hundred plays. If the full record is inside the members' area, that's the first thing I'd look for after paying.

The site doesn't say who checks the records. A well-known owner is a reason to expect the grading is done straight, not proof that it is. Our ATB Verified page sets out what a checked record looks like.

The model

A model that simulates a game 10,000 times sounds precise. What it gives you is the model's opinion of the probability, repeated 10,000 times. The number of simulations tells you nothing about whether the inputs are right. The test is the same as for any capper: does the model's side beat the closing line more often than not? I'd track it for a month before I let it near my money.

Before you pay

I didn't find the refund terms on the SportsLine pages I read; the subscription terms sit on the parent company's legal site. Before buying, I'd check whether the monthly plan renews on its own, how to cancel, and whether anything is refunded. The help center has a cancellation article and a contact page.

The footer says the content is for entertainment, that no gambling is offered on the site, and that SportsLine may be paid for links. That last part matters on a picks page that sits beside sportsbook promo codes.

No picks service takes the risk out of a bet. If you follow an expert, bet each play at the same small share of your bankroll, whatever units he puts on it, and stop when you reach the loss you set before the week began.

At $13.99 the subscription is cheap. The losing bets you'd make following it aren't.