Rethinking the Red Sox – Updated MLB Odds

1 year ago 0 21

A little less than a month ago, the defending champion Boston Red Sox were 13-17 and just couldn’t seem to find their groove. I had told you to not fall for the trap that was the Red Sox at +950 odds to win the World Series. It might be time to revisit those thoughts on Boston. You can check out that full article by clicking here.

Don’t Look Back

If you’re a fan of Boston the band, you’re familiar with the tune Don’t Look Back. It would be in the Red Sox best interest to not look back. Since their rough start, they have gone 13-6. The pitching staff has taken its share of lumps and Nathan Eovaldi is still on the 10-day injured list. Chris Sale is slowly starting to rebound.

Sale is still just 1-5 on the season, but after winning his first game on May 3, Sale has started four games and the Red Sox have won three. In each of those four starts, Sale has struck out 10 or more batters. Against Colorado on May 14, Sale struck out 17 in seven innings.

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Rick Porcello, who also got off to a rough start losing his first three starts, has gone 3-1 in his last four decisions. With the pitching staff back, the Red Sox look like a tremendous value now at +1150. Remember, they are still a top-10 team in most offensive statistical categories with a lineup full of slugging talent. Reigning MVP Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Mitch Moreland (13 HR, 34 RBI) are a good reason to consider the Red Sox who have won four World Series titles since 2004.

Houston, No Problem

The Houston Astros, winners of the 2017 World Series, are still the favorites to win it all this year. With eight wins in their last ten games, Houston owns MLB’s best record. The Astros now stand at +300 to win it all and for good reason. They lead MLB in team batting average (.281), on-base percentage (.860), slugging percentage (.506), and they are tied for second in home runs with 90.

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Justin Verlander has 8 wins (2^nd in the AL) and an ERA of just 2.24 (also 2^nd). Reliever Roberto Osuna is tied for third in the AL with 12 saves. George Springer leads the league in homers (17) and RBIs (42). With the league’s best offense and a top-rate pitching staff, it’s easy to see why Houston is the favorite.

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The Usual Suspects

It’s no shock that Houston is the favorite to win the 2019 World Series. It’s also not surprising to find the Dodgers (+600), the Yankees (+600), and the Phillies (+850) still hovering near the top. What is interesting though is the move starting to be made by the Chicago Cubs (+1150). The Cubs have a former MVP in Kris Bryant (.280, 11 HR, 32 RBI), a World Series MVP in Ben Zobrist, and a pitching staff that could be dangerous.

Cole Hamels is 4-0. Jon Lester is 3-2 with a 2.09 ERA and Yu Darvish appears to be making strides after missing most of last season with an injury. With Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana, the Cubs have the pitching that makes them a nice value.

Looking California, Feeling Minnesota

In the words of the late, great Chris Cornell and Soundgarden; the Minnesota Twins are definitely looking California and certainly not feeling Minnesota. Since April 20, the Twins have played 32 games. They have lost just nine.

Minnesota leads the majors in runs scored with a lineup lacking superstars. Jorge Polanco bats .339 and Eddie Rosario leads the team with 14 homers and 39 RBIs. In addition to leading MLB in runs, the Twins are second in batting average (.269) and tied for second in home runs (90).

The Minnesota Twins lead the majors in runs scored

The pitching staff likewise lacks superstars but is big on production. Martin Perez is 6-1 while Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are both 6-2. As a staff, Twins pitchers are second to Houston in wins with 32. They are 8^th in ERA at 3.82.

Yes, they are a longshot, but the Twins have moved from +2000 on May 1 to +1150. That’s the same odds as your defending World Series champion Red Sox. And the Cubs. There’s still plenty of baseball left, but the Twins could pay off big.

Here’s a look at how the odds have changed since May 1.

2019 World Series Odds to Win (May 1, 2019)

Houston Astros +350

Los Angeles Dodgers +500

New York Yankees +700

Philadelphia Phillies +850

Boston Red Sox +950

Milwaukee Brewers +950

Cleveland Indians +1150

Tampa Bay Rays +1150

Chicago Cubs +1350

New York Mets +1350