PGA Picks | Valspar Championship

Originally the Tampa Bay Classic, which was established in 2000, it has been the Valspar Championship since 2014. It ends the Florida swing before the PGA heads west to Texas. The #1 golfer in the world, Dustin Johnson, is in the field along with defending champ Paul Casey.

In 5 years of existence, there have been 2 playoffs to determine a winner, and 3 times the winner won by just 1 stroke. There are some great odds being offered, so let’s see who I like this week.


Valspar Championship

Where: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead), Palm Harbor, Florida

Par: 71

Length: 7,340 yards (6,712 meters)

When: March 21st – 24th, 2019

Purse: $6,700,000

Defending Champion: Paul Casey

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC, Golf TV, Twitter


We were in the mix last week at THE PLAYERS, when both Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm were on the first page of the leaderboard in the final round. They both crapped the bed and faded late after Fleetwood found the water when he needed a great shot the most, and Rahm made a bad shot and let his hotheaded temper get the better of him. Last week’s PGA article can be seen here.

This week, guys I will be laying money on include:

Charl Schwartzel +5500

This is the toughest golf tournament to date this year to handicap. After the strongest field in a non-major last week, literally anyone could win this thing. Did you see Jim Furyk last week? Got a spot the week of and almost won the event with the richest purse.

As I’m taking a look around Innisbrook’s history, one name that kept popping up was ol’ Charl. He loves this place, winning in 2016 with a best-of-the-day closing round of 67 to go along with a 6th place finish in 2017, shooting 67-68 on the weekend. He can get it done here, and does have finishes of T6 and T16 on the PGA Tour in the last month.

Paul Casey +1750

Casey got to Innisbrook early to defend his title after an opening round of 78 put him out of contention early at THE PLAYERS last week. Before that, he sandwiched his worst finish of the season, T25 at the Genesis with a 2 at Pebble and a T# at the WGC-Mexico.

Given Casey’s current form, and showing he go low here, Casey provides some of the best value this week at +1750.

It’s a known fact that bookies that offer PGA odds are making a lot of money. Check our Pay Per Head reviews to get started today.

Patrick Reed +1750

Reed is quietly having a very good season, making the cut in the 9 events he’s entered. His average finish in those events is 22nd and is currently 59th in the FedEx Cup standings. His history here at Innisbrook is the real reason why I love him this week though.

He has played here the past 4 years, with 2 T2’s, a T7 and a T38. If it weren’t for Casey’s blistering 65 in the final round last year, reed would have been hoisting the trophy at Copperhead.

Other Players I like:

Brandt Snedeker +3500

Henrik Stenson +2750

Dustin Johnson +450

PGA Picks by Joe Berra

Posted March 20th, 2019

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