PGA Picks | Arnold Palmer Invitational

This week we have one of the strongest fields assembled in years as the PGA continues its Florida swing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We will see six of the Top 10 and 12 of the Top 20 in the Official World Golf Rankings tee it up, which can lead to some difficulty picking the winner, but I’m here for you.


Arnold Palmer Invitational

Where: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

When: March 7th – 10th, 2019

Purse: $9,100,000

Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC, ESPN, Twitter


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Last week our picks were just ok. We did have Rickie at +850, and with a T2 finish, a bounce here or there could have put us in the win column. I also had Justin Thomas (T30), Webb Simpson (T36) and Billy Horschel (T16). You can see my write-up for the Honda Classic here. But that was last week and we’re all about this week. Here’s who we like at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Bryson Dechambeau +1250

I really like Dechambeau this week. He had the lead after 3 rounds here last year, and would have won if it weren’t for an amazing run of 5 birdies in the final 6 holes for Rory.

Dechambeau’s worst finish of the season was his last time out at the WCG-Mexico event, but before that, he finished 7, T10 and T15. He is among the best in the world right now at #5 in the OWGR, and is 12th in the FedEx Cup standings. I love his value at +1250.

Francesco Molinari +2750

Speaking of value, how about Francesco? He’s coming of a freshly signed contract with Callaway and has switched all 14 clubs to Callaway along with a new ball. Usually, I would steer away from something this new, but from what he is saying, this change is nothing new, as he is a player who likes to change things up. You can read a great Q&A between Molinari and about the signing.

Molinari has played in only 2 PGA events in 2019, but his recent play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational can’t go unnoticed. In the last 3 years at this event, he’s finished T26, T7 and T9.

Rory McIlroy +550

I don’t love the odds here at +550, but it can’t be denied that Rory has a great chance to win here this weekend. As I talked about earlier, Rory closed out his 4th round here last year on fire, on the way to a closing round 64.

Not only is McIlroy known to enjoy playing here at Bay Hill, he is at currently at the top of his game. In 4 events since January, he has finished 2, T4, T5 and T4. In the 16 rounds he has played in those 4 events, only 3 have been over 70. +550 is very close to my cut-off of golfers I will wager on, but come Sunday, if Rory wins, we won’t be complaining.

Other Players I like:

Justin Rose +800

Jason Day +1000

Tommy Fleetwood +2750

Henrik Stenson +4500

Good luck this weekend, and don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about writing my golf betting strategy article, it’ll be coming down the pipe soon.

PGA Picks by Joe Berra

Posted March 6th, 2019

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