It’s the beginning of June, and the PGA’s third Major of the year is already upon us. That’s right, this week is the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. This course setup will be quite a bit different than it was back in February for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Most notably, the narrow fairways will be lined with very thick rough and the greens will have a much faster Stimpmeter reading. I read somewhere that the rough has never been this thick before at Pebble, and any ball that makes it’s way off the fairway won’t be easy to find.
Where: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California
Length: 7,040 yards (6,437 meters)
When: June 13th – 16th, 2019
Winner’s Share: $2,200,000
Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka ($2,160,000)
TV Coverage: FS1, FOX
Odds courtesy of America’s Bookie
Rory McIlroy destroyed the competition over the weekend last week at the RBC Canadian Open, shooting rounds of 64 and 61 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Unfortunately, I didn’t take Rory last week, but we did rake in a little profit by betting Webb Simpson to finish Top 5.
Golf Majors are a different animal, because to win one of these takes a special golfer. Let’s make some money this week while we get to watch some great golf.
Brooks Koepka +800
If you follow my golf picks, you know I hate going chalk, but let’s be honest, any golf handicapper would be an idiot not to include Brooks in their picks. He has won the last two U.S. Opens, the last two PGA Championships and was second at Augusta earlier this year. The guy is a straight beast at the Majors.
You just have to roll with this guy until he loses a Major. He’s 19th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and although he didn’t play at Pebble back in February, and has limited experience here, I’m still rolling with him.
Consider a small unit wager on Koepka as a Top 5 finisher at +165 too.
>> MUST READ – Betting the US Open | Top-Valued Props
Dustin Johnson +800
Yup, going chalk again, and picking another favorite to win…it’s what you do for Majors. DJ always plays well at Pebble, and most likely would have won a U.S. Open here years ago if he didn’t ground his club in a “fairway bunker” that didn’t even look like one.
You’ll find him 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, a stat I consider to be extremely important this week. A closer look at the stats, Johnson is 14th in SG: Putting (down from 6th last week), 16th in SG: Approach to Green and 13th in Greens in regulation Percentage. All this spells the complete game to win it all here this year.
Just like Brooks, consider a small unit wager on DJ as a Top 5 finisher at +165.
CHECK OUT THIS AWESOME AERIAL VIEW OF PEBBLE BEACH FROM THE USGA
Webb Simpson +4000
Now it’s time for some value bets, where the real money can be made. I’m rolling with Webb again, after going with him last week in Canada. He has the game to compete here at Pebble, and his current form makes it possible for him to win another U.S. Open on Cali soil.
Like I said last week, Simpson quietly put together a great season, missing only one cut in 14 starts. His T2 last week jumped him from #42 to #23 in the FedEx Cup Standings and is now 19th in the OWGR.
You know all those stat categories I’ve been talking about? You’ll find Webb near the top of a lot of them. At +4000, Webb Simpson offers great value.
Jim Furyk +10000
Jim Furyk is my other golfer with long odds to win it all. He has the game to win it all, sitting atop the Driving Accuracy Percentage list, 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 7th in GIR%.
Jim has put together a season so far that has him 31st in FedEx Cup Rankings, including a T14 at Pebble in February. At 49, it would be a surprise to see him win, but with a $10k return on a $100 bet, he’s worth a hundred bucks.
Others I like to Win:
Jason Day +3000
Rory McIlroy +800
Henrik Stenson +5000
Picks by Joe Berra
Posted June 12th, 2019