NFL Week 7 Line Movements
Paying close attention to line movements during the week leading up to the NFL weekend can be very profitable. Lines move for numerous reasons, and determining why they did can be a great indicator of which side to bet on. This week has been the quietest week of the year for line movements, but here are some of the biggest line movements for NFL Week 7.
Most sportsbooks opened this game up at 49.5, but could be found at 48.5 for 10 minute window before it quickly moved up a full point. It took it’s time moving up to the current total of 51, moving up to 50 on Tuesday evening, 50.5 on Thursday morning and another 0.5 on Friday afternoon.
The Bucs are 8th overall in points scored per game this season at 28.2, but their defense is giving up the most points per game at 34.6. This is most likely the reason for the total increase, after Jameis Winston threw 4 touchdowns in his first start of the season after serving a 3 game suspension for violating the NFL’s code of conduct policy.
The Brown’s offense has been clicking since Baker Mayfield took over under center. They scored 45 points in Week 4 against the Raiders and 38 last week against the Chargers. They are currently the #24 scoring offense averaging 21.3/game with their defense 20th giving up 25.2.
This line was at MIA +1 on Monday morning, where it stayed until Wednesday morning when it took a big point and a half jump to MIA +2.5. It hit +3 later on Wednesday where it has been since.
The Dolphins have been tough to read so far this season, going 3-0 to start the season, then losing 2 consecutive games, including a 38-7 loss to New England and blowing a 17-0 lead against the Bengals to lose 27-17. Brock Osweiler stepped in for injured QB Ryan Tannehill last week and lead his team to a 31-28 overtime win over the much improved Chicago Bears.
The Lions opened the season with losses to the Jets and 49ers, only to beat the Patriots in Week 3, lose to the Cowboys in Week 4 and get a big W against the Packers in Week 5. The Lions are coming off a bye before heading to Miami this week.
Some big money must have went on the Lions on Wednesday morning, accounting for the 1.5-point line move, but I am waiting until we get closer to game time to see where this line ends up before I wager on this one.
The total in this one opened on Sunday night at 43, where it stayed for a few hours before it went to 42.5 where it stayed until Tuesday afternoon. Between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday morning, the total bounced back and forth between 41.5, 42 and 42.5. Thursday morning saw a move to 41.5 where it stayed until Friday morning when it hit its current mark of 41.
The Texans have rattled off 3 straight wins (Indianapolis, Dallas and Buffalo) after losing their first 3 games of the season (New England, Tennessee, and NY Giants). In their last 2 wins, they managed only 19 and 20 points, which could possibly be contributing to the drop in the game total. Houston is 22nd in scoring per game at 22.5 and 11th in defense, allowing 22.8 PPG.
Jacksonville has largely been a disappointment this season after having a top defensive unit in 2017 where they only gave up 16.8 points per game, giving up 21 so far this season. Those include giving up 30 (Kansas City) and 40 (Dallas) in back to back losses the past two weeks.
There are some conflicting trends when looking into this one. Houston has played to the UNDER is 6 of their last 8, and has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 road games. However, the Jags have gone OVER in 4 of their last 6. As well, these division rivals have played to the OVER in 4 of the last 5 games played in Jacksonville.
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