NFL Week 4 By the Numbers
The numbers from Week 4 point to a better week for bettors after most of the heavy favorites covered and the betting world returned closer to normal than the past couple weeks. After Weeks 2 and 3 brought tidings of comfort and joy to sportsbooks, it is time to look at the betting numbers that came out of Week 4.
Five games closed at -7 or higher with 3 of them covering, including the Packers (-10.5), Jaguars (-7.5) and the Patriots (-7), while the Rams failed to cover the closing spread of -7.5. If you were quick you could have gotten the Rams at -6.5, which moved to 7 briefly before moving to 7.5.
Overall, the favorites went 8-6 with one game closing at PK. The past 2 weeks saw quite a few dogs win outright. Week 4 had three teams that closed as the underdog win straight up. The biggest line movement of the week was 3, seeing the jump from Jaguars -10.5 to -7.5 and 2.5 with the Falcons moving from -5.5 to -3. The Jaguars won by 19, making all of their backers happy.
It is well known that recreational bettors like to wager on favorites and the OVER. Signs point to bettors getting the better of the bookie this weekend continue to pour in with the OVER winning Week 4 with a record of 9-6.
The last 3 games on the betting board saved the day after NO vs. NYG, BAL vs. PIT and KC vs. DEN all went UNDER. Before the late afternoon games started, the OVER was a solid 7-2.
Continuing with the theme shows domination by the favorites in 2nd half point spreads with a 9-3-1 record, with two games closing at PK. In the same 9 games that dominated the OVER, they also dominated as 2nd half favorites ATS, going 5-1-1.
The last couple weeks had heavy trends when looking at 2nd half totals, when Week 2 had the OVER go 10-6 and last week finishing with the UNDER 12-2-2. After the first 5 games on the NFL betting board for Week 4 finished UNDER in 4 of the 5, it looked like the heavy UNDER trend was continuing until the OVER fought back to nearly even it out with the UNDER going 7-6-1.
The Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos game offered some great middling opportunities in it’s small line movement window. It is not very often you see how the numbers played out here. The Chiefs opened at -4.5 and heading into Sunday moved to 3.5, with a stop at 4.
The score was Chiefs 27 – Broncos 23. Bettors that got it at 4 pushed, while you could have potentially bet both sides and won them both. If you got Broncos +4.5, you win. If you got Chiefs -3.5, you win. This was a middling window only the savviest of bettors would have moved on and profited from, or you sat on the horseshoe this week.
The QBs continue to steal the spotlight and hog all the top storylines. Mahomes showed some moxy in a comeback win in primetime on Monday night in the aforementioned game. Mahomes had a rough start in Mile High, but finished the game 28 for 45 for 304 yards and his league leading 14th TD. Mahomes is yet to throw an interception this season.
A story I am happy to report is on Andrew Luck, after he went off for 464 yards and 4 touchdowns in a heartbreaking loss at home to the Texans. Some are all over coach Frank Reich for a late call to go for it, but I love the aggressive attitude. I didn’t want another tie either Frank!
I got off track for a minute, all apologies.
Luck admitted himself that there was a time during his rehab that he thought he may never play football again. To once be thought of as the next best QB to not knowing if you will ever play another down has to be devastating. It is great to see him getting back into form and to finally see his o-line giving his some protection.
Four games was a popular suspension length this offseason, and Week 5 sees no less than five players coming back this week that will instantly give their team a boost. Most notably are Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman, Saints running back Mark Ingram and Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith.
The Raven defense is already a top unit across the board, 2nd in yards per game, 4th in total yards, pass yards, rush yards per game and 3rd in points per game. Getting Smith back will give this defensive backend another ball hawk.
Tom Brady needs his buddy Edelman back after losing him for the entire season last year. In 2016, Edelman had 98 receptions on 159 targets for 1,106 yards and 3 TDs. When Josh Gordon gets up to speed on the offense and Edelman gets his legs back, the Pats will most likely be passing their way through the AFC en route to the Super Bowl.
Ingram will be a welcome sight to running back Alvin Kamara after he put the offense on his shoulders, helping to lead them to a 3-1 record to start the season. Kamara will still get his, but Ingram and his straight forward running approach is the perfect ying to Kamara’s yang. Look for the Saints to make more first downs, leaving the offense on the field even longer.
I could keep going on with storylines, but we will leave it there for now. I hope that caught you up on all the betting numbers to come out of Week 4, and that you were on the right side more often than not.
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