NFL Week 3 Recap (College Week 4)

By The Rex Factor

Nothing out of the ordinary in Week 3 early games, but players heat up late, crush bookmakers

At 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, most bookmakers were relatively satisfied with the Week 3 results in the NFL.

Little did they know that things would quickly and forcefully turn pear-shaped against them.

Three late afternoon games later, all one-sided, and all going the players way – and the bookmakers suddenly were sweating bullets heading into the Sunday night game. That one didn’t go any better, and now the bookies were faced at certain losses Monday regardless of the result because of the carryover bets. Sure enough, Green Bay’s cover on Monday Night football against Kansas City signaled the final death knell of the week and ensured one of the best weeks for the bettors in NFL history, when it comes to profit.

The start of the week was tranquil enough. Of the 10 early games Sunday, Pittsburgh beating St. Louis as a public dog (sharp money on the Rams flipped the line in the last couple of hours prior to post) and Atlanta beating Dallas in the exact same manner (public dog, sharp Dallas money flipping the line late) were bad results for the house. New England mauling Jacksonville and easily covering the 14 points was the worst result.

Still, Oakland winning outright at Cleveland, Tennessee getting a late score to sneak in the backdoor against the Colts and Philly beating the Jets outright seemed to ensure that the morning session wasn’t a bad one for those who write bets.

There were plenty of open parlays with New England, Pittsburgh, the Giants (from their Thursday cover against Washington as a home favorite) and Atlanta, however, and the popular sides would cover in each of the final five games of the NFL week that started at 4:05 EDT or later Sunday.

Even more troubling for the bookies, they didn’t get a good sweat for their money!

Arizona blasted San Francisco in a game that was never close, leading 31-7 at the half en route to a 47-7 win.

Seattle led the Bears just 6-0 at the half but returned the second half kick for a score and got over the number shortly thereafter in a 26-0 blanking. Chicago punted on every position!
Buffalo was a small dog at Miami for most of the week but closed around a PICK because of both public and sharp money on the Bills on gameday. They led 24-0 at the half and decked the Fins, 41-14.

Suddenly, things went from dire to worse when Denver (laying around 3 with juice to Detroit) beat the host Lions 24-12 on Sunday. The Broncos have often been a public side since Peyton Manning came to town three years ago. Green Bay was never in danger of not covering after halftime Monday in a 38-28 win over Kansas City (laying 5 or so); the Packers were up 31-7 at one point.

Offshore sportsbooks (as well as those in Las Vegas) will still be standing when the next football games are played Thursday, but the players got in a good whack-to-the-knee with a baseball bat in Week 3 of NFL action.

Overall, NFL favorites went 8-7-1 against the CRIS closing line, with the “1” being the Buffalo/Miami “pick” game. Five of those underdogs were outright winners. The OVER went 10-6 for the week and home and visiting teams chopped eight decisions each against the number.

In college football, it seems the closing number is rounding into form, as evidenced by the whopping six PUSHES against the CRIS closer in 52 games. Favorites went 25-19-6, with two games that went off as a PICK. UNDERS were still the way to go in Week 4 of the college slate, going 28-22 with two games pushing against the closing total.
The away teams had the best of it again ATS, going 27-18 with the six pushes. Texas A&M and Arkansas was a neutral site game, so only 51 games were graded this week in the home-vs-away stat.

There were seven extra games (I-AA vs. I-A) in week four, and five of the seven underdogs covered the spread, with James Madison winning outright at SMU. The line movement there was kooky to say the least; SMU opened as a 12.5-point favorite at two or three spots, got bet down as low as minus-3 within the first few minutes of open, and closed at SMU minus-13 or so at most places!

Let’s see if the players can keep the money in their pockets as the calendar turns to October; for the most part, they’re walking around a little taller after collecting this week.

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