Is it just me or is this NFL season flying by faster than any other? Thursday will mark the start of Week 11, a week that can see the Rams clinch the NFC West, with the rest of the playoff picture becoming a little clearer. Although last week was a tough one for the bookies, Week 10 might have saw the pendulum swing back in their favor.
Do you remember NFL Week 2 By the Numbers, a week I deemed the Week of the Dog? Nine of 14 dogs covered that week with 6 of them winning straight up. Week 10 was the sequel of the Week of the Dog with the underdog covering in eight of the 14 game with 6 of them winning straight up. Dogs were 8-5-1.
Not only did the dogs win straight up, but they did so as a heavy dog, with the Bills beating the Jets as a 7-5-point dog, the Browns beating the Falcons as a 5.5-point dog, the Titans getting the W over the Pats as a 7-point dog with the Cowboys going into Philly and knocking off the defending champs as a 9-point dog.
Not only did the dogs dominate game full game spreads, but the dogs were also 9-4 in second half point spreads, with one game closing at PK. NFL oddsmakers must not have been watching the first half, as the games I mentioned above saw the winning team cover as heavy 2nd half dogs. 2nd half spreads saw the Bills as a 4-point dog, the Browns 6.5 with the Titans and Cowboys a 7-point second half dog.
Game totals saw the OVER as a slight winner at 8-6. Both the Bills and Steelers took care of the OVER all by themselves, with the Bills scoring 41 when the total closed at 37.5 and the Steelers scoring 52 when the total closed at 51. The Saints almost paid out OVER bettors themselves as well, putting 51 on the board when the total closed at 53. Hope you bet the OVER on those 3!
There was a much more defined trend with second half totals, as the UNDER dominated at 9-5. The Thursday night matchup saw the 2nd half total go OVER, however 9 of the ten games on the NFL Sunday betting board went UNDER in the second half.
If you read my NFL Week By the Numbers article, you probably remember the trend in second half totals that I uncovered. It was an interesting trend, with the highest totals going OVER with the lowest totals going UNDER. This week was no different.
The two highest second half totals came from Carolina vs. Pittsburgh (26.5) and Seattle vs. LA Rams (26), which accounted for 2 of the 5 OVERs. On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest total closed at 19.5 in the Bills vs. Jets game, and you guessed it, it went UNDER with a total of 17 second half points scored. I’ve been following this trend and it has been very profitable.
You know I love to talk about the week’s biggest stories before I let you go. Some of the biggest stories out of Week 10 were the Eagle loss to the Cowboys at home and the big win for the Titans at home over the Patriots. The Titan win put them right back in the hunt for the AFC South, one win behind the division leading Texans and a game up on the 3rd place Colts.
The Eagle loss dropped them to 3rd in the NFC East, two games back of the Redskins. Philadelphia has two of their 7 remaining games against Washington, but also road meetings against the Saints and Rams, who have 2 losses between them. Making the playoffs will not be easy for the defending champs.
How about Mitchell Trubisky, can we show him some love? The dude has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last 6 games, throwing 17 TDs and 4 INTs. He has helped the Bears to a 6-3 record and sit atop the NFC North. He is really coming into his own under the tutelage of Matt Nagy, and should only get better after starting a limited number of games in college. Dynasty football owners should no sleep on Mitch.
Have you followed ATB’s Instagram account yet? If not, go ahead and follow us now!
That does it for Week 10 and we’re set to get revved up quickly in Week 11 with a great matchup on Thursday Night when the Seattle Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers. Stay tuned as we get closer to kickoff, when we will offer you a free pick for that one in our Pick of the Day section.
I hope this got you sorted out with all the goings on in Week 10, and see where the numbers fell. We’re getting down to crunch time, and it’s when football and betting gets even more fun. Buckle up football fans!