The NFL is one of the toughest sports to handicap, especially when focusing on straight bets. But I did the research and got a NFL Week 1 free pick for you.
Unless you jump on an early NFL point spread or total, winning consistently with these two markets is tough. Each week this season, I’m going to share my best NFL player prop.
We’ll track the record and see where we end up at the end of the NFL regular season.
For NFL week 1 action, I’m going with a player prop from the Chargers vs. Bengals game.
This is an afternoon game, so make sure you get your bets down before kick-off.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 13th 2020
Where: Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Current Line: LAC -3 (-105) Total: 41.5 Points
Burrow and Taylor
Both of these teams have new QBs starting for their team in 2020.
The Bengals drafted Joe Burrow with the #1 pick and the Chargers are going with Tyrod Taylor after Philip Rivers went to the Colts. What can we expect from these two QBs in the 2020 NFL season?
We really don’t know what to expect out of Burrow. For one, it’s his first NFL game. Secondly, how will #1 WR A.J. Green look? This is an offense that could put up a lot of points if Burrow succeeds early.
Chargers Scout Bengals, “They play with attitude on defense”
He has Green, Tyler Boyd and speedster John Ross III to throw to. Joe Mixon is also a stud RB.
If the Bengals can get out to an early lead at home, the Chargers will be forced to throw.
I actually think the Chargers will have to throw even if the game is close. They have to trust Taylor to throw the football, as even the team’s #1 RB (Austin Ekeler) is a bigger threat in open space.
Keenan Allen Will Ball Out
Allen comes into the season healthy and has a new four-year contract extension worth $80+ million.
He’s going to want to put up big numbers again. Last season, Allen 104 receptions (3rd), 1199 yards (6th) and 6 TDs (24th). He had no problem racking up yards despite his low TD total.
Allen had 56+ receiving yards in 11 of 16 regular season games last year. He opened the season with games of 123, 98 and 183 receiving yards in the first three weeks of the season.
He struggled a bit in the middle of the season, but he had 68+ receiving yards in the Chargers last seven regular season games. He should easily eclipse that total in week 1, even with Taylor at QB.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet
This receiving yards player prop seems way too low, especially when you consider that Mike Williams (shoulder) is questionable (game time decision). Even if he goes, he’ll mainly be a decoy.
If Williams doesn’t play, Allen is essentially locked in for 10+ targets and is the reason for today’s free sports pick. He was targeted 10+ times in 10 games last season and he had 60+ receiving yards in every game except for one.
NFL Week 1 Free Pick: Keenan Allen 56+ Receiving Yards (-114)
Free Pick By Scott Jack