NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Trail Blazers at Nuggets Game 7

I’m not even a huge basketball fan, but this Game 7 this afternoon has me excited, not just because it’s a good game, but the bookies got this one wrong. Every day you can find mistakes, spreads or totals that are off, providing much loved value to us bettors. Here’s why I think this one is off.

FIND A SPORTSBOOK TO PLACE THIS BET

 

Game: Portland Trail Blazers (60-33, 50-42-1 ATS) at Denver Nuggets (61-34, 49-46 ATS)

When: 3:30 PM ET, Sunday, May 12th, 2019

Where: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado

Current Line: DEN -5.5 Total: 212.5

TV Coverage: ABC

Series: Tied 3-3

 

This is the 10th game between the Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets this season, with the Nuggets holding a 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS record. One of their losses this series has come at home, Game 2 when they lost 97-90 as a 4-point home favorite.

The thing about Game 2, it was the only game of the 10 between these two that went UNDER. That’s right, the OVER is 9-1 in the 10 previous games between these two this season.

The total was set at the highest it was all series for Game 2 as well, when NBA oddsmakers closed the total at 219.5. 212.5 is just too low.

They have combined to score an average of 229 points per game so far in this series. Sure, they scored 277 in a 4 OT marathon in Game 3, but what’s to say this one doesn’t need an extra frame or two?

Sure, the Blazers were on fire in Game 6, shooting 46.1% from the field and 45.5% beyond the arc, but they were only 73.3% from the free-throw line. Conversely, the Nuggets were a terrible 38.4% from the field and 93.8% from the line.

These stat lines will even out today, but I expect these two to score at least 220 points, making the total of 212.5 a mistake.

NBA Playoffs Free Pick: Trail Blazers at Nuggets OVER 212.5

Free pick by Joe Berra

Related Articles
NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Warriors at Trail Blazers Game 4 NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Warriors at Trail Blazers Game 4

NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Warriors at Trail Blazers Game 4

Unless you’re a real fan of the Golden State Warriors, it is likely you have never heard of Alfonso McKinnie. With leading scorer Kevin Durant out since Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, McKinnie and the rest of the Warriors bench has helped the defending NBA champs take a 3-0 lead over Portland in Read More…

MLB Free Pick | Pirates at Padres MLB Free Pick | Pirates at Padres

MLB Free Pick | Pirates at Padres

To all y’all who only bet football, and consider this the “offseason” of betting, you’re missing out. The NBA and NHL Playoffs are close to having this year’s Finals set, MLB is in full swing, the PGA is getting front headlines (and offers great betting value), as well as countless other avenues to bet this Read More…

NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Warriors at Trail Blazers Game 3 NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Warriors at Trail Blazers Game 3

NBA Playoffs Free Pick | Warriors at Trail Blazers Game 3

The Warriors are a machine and they always tune it up come playoff time. They have a different mindset for the playoffs, they are a better team during the playoffs and they know how to equip themselves for the playoff run. The playoffs are a grind and this team has been there, they know what Read More…