I’m not even a huge basketball fan, but this Game 7 this afternoon has me excited, not just because it’s a good game, but the bookies got this one wrong. Every day you can find mistakes, spreads or totals that are off, providing much loved value to us bettors. Here’s why I think this one is off.
Game: Portland Trail Blazers (60-33, 50-42-1 ATS) at Denver Nuggets (61-34, 49-46 ATS)
When: 3:30 PM ET, Sunday, May 12th, 2019
Where: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
Current Line: DEN -5.5 Total: 212.5
TV Coverage: ABC
Series: Tied 3-3
This is the 10th game between the Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets this season, with the Nuggets holding a 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS record. One of their losses this series has come at home, Game 2 when they lost 97-90 as a 4-point home favorite.
The thing about Game 2, it was the only game of the 10 between these two that went UNDER. That’s right, the OVER is 9-1 in the 10 previous games between these two this season.
The total was set at the highest it was all series for Game 2 as well, when NBA oddsmakers closed the total at 219.5. 212.5 is just too low.
They have combined to score an average of 229 points per game so far in this series. Sure, they scored 277 in a 4 OT marathon in Game 3, but what’s to say this one doesn’t need an extra frame or two?
Sure, the Blazers were on fire in Game 6, shooting 46.1% from the field and 45.5% beyond the arc, but they were only 73.3% from the free-throw line. Conversely, the Nuggets were a terrible 38.4% from the field and 93.8% from the line.
These stat lines will even out today, but I expect these two to score at least 220 points, making the total of 212.5 a mistake.
NBA Playoffs Free Pick: Trail Blazers at Nuggets OVER 212.5
Free pick by Joe Berra