NBA Free Pick | Rockets at Mavericks

I hope your weekend has been treating you as well as mine has, and a Happy Sunday to you! Even though I live and die with football, yesterday was one hell of a day for a sports fan.

We had wall-to-wall college basketball action as we close out the regular season, with March Madness making an appearance in our windshield’s, spring training baseball with homers being mashed like mom’s potatoes and the Arnie Invitational, plus NBA, NHL, MMA, soccer…non-stop action.

Normally I will bring you an NHL pick, but with a soft Sunday NHL schedule, and an eye-popping line, I got an NBA pick for you today.


Game: Houston Rockets (40-25, 30-33-2 ATS) at Dallas Mavericks (27-38, 37-28 ATS)

When: 7:00 PM ET, Sunday, March 10th, 2019

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Current Line: DAL +8 Total: 222.5

TV Coverage: AT&T SportsNet Northwest, FS Southwest


OK…before I get started I have a little self promotion and an inside pick for those of you that actually read these. If you’re following my PGA picks, you know I’m hot af. This week, I have 4 guys in the Top 17 before teeing off for the 4th round, with a maximum of 5 shots off the pace set by Matthew Fitzpatrick at -9. You can check out the full article by clicking here.

Of those 4 guys, I have Rory, who is at #2, 1 shot back coming off a 66 yesterday. Do you remember what he did here last year to win the event? (click above link to read if you don’t know) McIlroy hasn’t finished worse than T5 in the 4 events he’s played this year, including a second place finish his last time out at the WGC-Mexico event.

I love Rory to destroy this course today, and his way to a 2 or 3 shot victory. Take Rory McIlroy in any PGA Round Matchup you can find him in.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming…Rockets at Dallas.

This is Game 4 this season between these two divisional rivals, with Dallas winning 2 of 3, including a 128-108 beatdown in Houston on November 28th. Sure, the Rockets did beat them in Houston the last time these two played, a 120-104 victory on February 11th, but did you see the Mavs ATS stats above?

The Mavericks are among the top teams in the league against the spread. They are 4th in the league overall, covering 56.9% of the time (37-28). Those numbers get even better when looking at league stats ATS as the Home Team, where Dallas jumps up to #3 with a 65.6% cover rate.

On the other hand, the Rockets are among the worst teams ATS on the road, covering only 40.6% of the time (13-19-1), which is 5th worst. A buddy of mine who always dives deep into the numbers informed me the Rockets are only 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when favored between 6.5 and 9.5-points.

21 of Dallas’ 27 wins have come at home, they are 21-11 there, as opposed to a horrendous 6-27 on the road. I am tempted to take the Mavs ML at +272.

Depending how savy of a line shopper you are, you may be able to find this at 8.5, but I got it at +8, and I am more than happy with that. Want to know more about shopping for lines? Take a look at Shopping Daily Betting Lines at Your Favorite Online Sportsbook.

Rolling with the Dallas Mavericks to cover.

NBA Free Pick: Mavericks +8

Free pick by Joe Berra

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