NBA Free Pick | Celtics at Knicks
I think 216 is a high point total to set for Friday night’s matchup between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. Fresh off a blockbuster trade, I think the Knicks will be a bit sluggish. Meanwhile, the Celtics can’t be counted on to put up a lot of points.
Game: Boston Celtics (32-19, 26-25 ATS) at New York Knicks (10-40, 22-26-2 ATS)
When: 7:30 PM ET, Friday, February 1st, 2019
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
Current Line: NYK +13.5 Total: 216
TV Coverage: ESPN, NBCS Boston, MSG
The under is 4-1 in Boston’s last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. For whatever reason, they haven’t played well on the road from an offensive standpoint.
Some more metrics to look at include the fact that the under is 5-0 in the Knicks last 5 games, the under is also 4-1 in the Knicks’ last 5 home games, and also 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference.
I expect a game in the high 90s, I don’t think the 216 total will hit. It’s simply way too many points for me to bet on the over in this game. Typically, I love betting the overs. I’m an offense guy and I love rooting for points. But this is a game where I just can’t do it.
Not only because of my opinion on the game, but also because the metrics back me up. The stats show it should be a lower scoring game. I can’t in good faith tell you to bet on the over and root for points. You guys know that I’m a math guy and if the numbers are telling me something, I typically go with it.
Sure, the Boston Celtics have been playing well, but a game against the Knicks is not a game that should somehow feature 110 points per team. It’s simply way too many points to expect these teams to hit and that’s why I’m confidently betting the under tonight.
NBA Free Pick: Celtics vs. Knicks UNDER 216 POINTS
Free pick by Will Simon
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