NBA Free Pick | Bucks at Mavericks

Give me the under in this one tonight. I always like to point to the metrics to get a good understanding of what way to bet. Let’s take a deep dive into some numbers, shall we? First and foremost, the point total is comfortably sitting at 223 points. That means we simply cannot have a game in the 110 range per team. I do not expect that to happen.

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Game: Milwaukee Bucks (40-13, 31-19-3 ATS) at Dallas Mavericks (25-28, 33-19-1 ATS)

When: 8:30 PM ET, Friday, February 8th, 2019

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Current Line: DAL +8 Total: 223

TV Coverage: FS Wisconsin, FS Southwest

 

I expect both teams to be flirting with triple digits. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 games vs. the Western Conference. They are not scoring a lot of points when they play teams from the West.

The under also looks very favorable from the Mavericks’ side as well. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 home games, it’s also 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. the NBA Central. To top it all off, the under is 16-5 in Dallas’ last 21 games overall. Which is a very solid record.

I think the game will be in the low 100s and hit the under. These two teams won’t put on a huge scoring clinic, instead it will be a very controlled game. Heck, their history against one another speaks for itself. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams.

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Realistically, we should not expect Milwaukee to have a crazy high scoring game, especially after the trade deadline where it will take some time for Mirotic to get used to playing with his new teammates.

And on the other hand, Dallas shows promise at times, but they cannot be trusted with the task of dropping 110 points on any team, let alone the Milwaukee Bucks. So all in all, I’m going to trust my gut and also trust the math and pound the under in this game.

NBA Free Pick: Bucks vs. Mavericks UNDER 223 POINTS 

Free pick by Will Simon

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