NASCAR Betting: 2015 Geico 500 Picks

By Scott

The 2015 Geico 500 is this Sunday afternoon at the Talladega Superspeedway. I love restrictor plate races because anyone can end up winning with a bit of luck. Denny Hamlin won this race last year and Brad Keselowski won at Talladega in 2014 as well.

Odds to Win the 2015 Geico 500

Bet on every NASCAR race at America’s Bookie.

Another perk of restrictor plate races is the prices available on all of the drivers. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the favorite at 10/1 and then there are seven drivers bunched up between 13/1 and 14/1 odds. If you pick the winner this week – you’ll have a nice payday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1000
Jimmie Johnson +1300
Brad Keselowski +1400
Kevin Harvick +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Matt Kenseth +1400
Joey Logano +1400
Kurt Busch +1400
Jeff Gordon +1500
Carl Edwards +1600
Jamie McMurray +2000
Clint Bowyer +2000
Martin Truex Jr. +2100
Kasey Kahne +2250
Tony Stewart +2250
David Ragan +2250
Greg Biffle +2750
Kyle Larson +2750
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3300
Ryan Newman +3300
Paul Menard +4400
Danica Patrick +6600
Austin Dillon +6600
Aric Almirola +6600
Casey Mears +6600
Michael Waltrip +6600
Ryan Blaney +6600
A.J. Allmendinger +8500
Trevor Bayne +8500
Justin Allgaier +11000
Sam Hornish Jr +11000

2015 Geico 500 Race Preview

Dale Earnhardt Jr (10/1) has two consecutive finishes outside of the top ten. Last year he finished in 26th and 31st place in the two races at Talladega. With both of those facts in mind – I won’t be betting on Earnhardt Jr. to win the Geico 500 this year.

Next up in the market is Jimmie Johnson (13/1) who has the best driver rating at Talladega the past two years, despite not finishing better than 5th place. In the last three races at Talladega he hasn’t finished in the top ten and it’s unlikely he’ll win the race.

The six drivers priced at 14/1 are Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch. What are the chances Busch will win again after taking down the Toyota Owners 400 last week at the Richmond International Speedway.

Keselowski has three wins at Talladega; including a win in the last race here back in October 2014. However, prior to that he had three poor races at Talladega – proving that you can win one year on this track and be completely out of the running the next.

Hamlin won this race last year somehow, despite starting in 34th place and only leading 12 laps. That was the first win for Hamlin on this track – typically he struggles at Talladega. Out of the remaining drivers priced at 14/1 – Kenseth has the best shot to win.

Kenseth is my pick, as he’s in great form and loves Talladega. Kenseth has finished in the top seven in three of the last four NASCAR races, including a win at Bristol. Kenseth won here back in 2012 and he has led at least one lap the last ten races on this track.

Clint Bowyer (20/1) finished in 3rd place in both races at Talladega last year. He won here back in 2011 and he should contend again. He’s paying out nicely for a win, but I’m more interested in betting Bowyer to finish in the top 3 or top 5 depending upon the odds.

You can go many different ways when NASCAR is at a restrictor plate track like Talladega. I’m rolling with Kenseth, as he has the track form and recent form. I’m happy with 14/1 odds and believe he has the best chance to win on Sunday.

· My Picks: Matt Kenseth +1400

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