Yesterday was quite possibly the worst day I’ve had in sports. But that was yesterday, it’s a new week and ready to dig into the numbers and do what I do best…find value. I will never go against my mold and bet moneylines of -150 and over. To me, the value just isn’t there. I found some value out in Houston tonight.
Game: Minnesota Twins (12-7, RL 9-10) at Houston Astros (13-8, RL 8-13)
When: 8:10 PM ET, Monday, April 22nd, 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
Current Line: HOU -167 Total: 9.5
TV Coverage: FS North, AT&T SportsNet Southwest Plus
Probable Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.76 ERA) vs. Brad Peacock (2-0, 3.94 ERA)
The Twins head to Houston after completing a 3-game sweep in Baltimore, including a Saturday double header. They sit atop the AL Central with a 1-game lead over the Indians. The Twinkies are the only team in their division with a point differential in the green at +20, which is equal to tonight’s opponent.
With a +20 point differential, the Astros have the second best mark in their division, second to the Mariners +32. If you’re wondering, the Rays lead the Majors with a +42 mark.
Odorizzi takes the bump for Minnesota and is 3-1 all-time versus the Astros, as per MLB.com. The 29-year-old righty got his first W in his last start, going 5.2 against the Jays, allowing 1 earned run on 6 hits with 6 K’s and a walk.
He had a great first outing on March 30th, going 6, striking out 11 and giving up only one run. The Twins lost 2-1 after a Trevor Bauer gem. Jake had a stinker too, not getting out of the first inning against the Phillies, giving up 4 earned runs on 5 hits and 3 walks.
After a short stay in the bullpen, Brad Peacock gets the call for the Astros. He hasn’t been terrible, but not great either.
I expect the Twins to score more than the Astros.
MLB Free Pick: Twins Moneyline +157
Free pick by Joe Berra