MLB FREE PICK | Blue Jays @ Red Sox

With the second half of the 2019 MLB season in full swing, we had to search the Monday schedule for some real value. Wouldn’t you know we found it with the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox who host American League East Division foe Toronto on Monday night. The Red Sox still put up runs by the bunches, but will they produce enough to beat the Blue Jays at home on Monday?

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Game: Toronto Blue Jays (35-59, 43-51 ATS ) at Boston Red Sox (50-43, 40-53 ATS)

When: 7:10 PM ET, Monday, July 15th, 2019

Where: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

Current Line: TOR +171 BOS -181 Total: 10.5

Probable Pitchers: Trent Thornton (3-6, 4.85 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (6-7, 5.33 ERA)

 

Boston, now in third place in the AL East, needs a win over Toronto in the first of a four-game series with the Blue Jays. The Red Sox begin a stretch of 21 games in a row against division opponents. Eight are against the first-place Yankees and six more are with second-place Tampa Bay. Boston needs to make these four count.

Looking at the Red Sox offense, you would think Boston can make it count. They lead the majors in runs scored. They have seven players with double-digit home runs. Surprisingly, it’s not reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts (.275, 13 HR, 41 RBI) that is tearing it up. That would be third baseman Rafael Devers who is second in the AL in batting average (.325) and has hit 17 homers and 64 RBIs.

In a recent five-game winning streak, the Red Sox plated 41 runs, an average of over eight per game. While Boston can score, they do have some difficulties. One of the biggest is simply playing at home.

MLB SCORES AND ODDS

So far this season, Boston is just 21-24 at home. During that same five-game winning streak, four of those games were on the road where the Red Sox perform better. Boston is 29-19 away from Fenway Park in 2019.

So, what does that mean for Monday? Toronto will send rookie Trent Thornton (3-6) to the mound. Just two weeks ago, Thornton gave up 11 hits and seven earned runs in 2.2 innings against Boston. He did, however, pitch well in his first career start against the Red Sox last month going 6.2 innings, giving up just two runs, and striking out seven.

Boston will go with veteran Rick Porcello who is 6-7 with a rather high 5.33 ERA. In Porcello’s last appearance against Toronto, he gave up eight hits and five runs in six innings. He picked up the loss back on June 23.

With all the runs given up by Thornton and Porcello and the Red Sox knack for producing runs, you might think the OVER at 10.5 is a great bet. It may very well be, but the real value is in a Toronto upset of the Red Sox.

Boston does hold a 6-5 advantage in 11 games with Toronto this season, but in games played at Fenway Park Boston has won just two of five. And, don’t forget the Red Sox home record.

Take the Blue Jays for the upset at +171.

MLB Free Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +171

Pick by Rick

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