Interesting NFL 2nd Half Total Trends
Weeks two and three of the 2018 NFL season have shown some decisive trends that could provide huge value if they continue. The only thing consistent about the National Football League is that it is consistently inconsistent, but without studying the numbers, you will never be able to unlock the hidden secret to sports betting success. Here’s what I found after digging deep into 2nd half totals in the 2018 season so far.
The OVER dominated Week 1 2nd half totals by going 10-6, including 8 of the first eleven games on the betting board. The lowest 2nd half total of the year came out of Week 1, when online sportsbooks had the Bills at Ravens 2nd half total at 17, which went well over with 24 points scored. By putting that game aside, six other games closed below 21, with three of them going UNDER.
The highest total of Week 1 2nd half totals was 27 in the Big Easy where the Saints were hosting the Buccaneers. 33 points were scored in that second half. Keep this in mind as we move forward.
Week 2 produced a 2nd half total record much closer with the OVER at 9-7. Worth noting is that the last 5 games on the betting board for NFL Week 2 went OVER in the second half. The lowest 2nd half total of Week 2 was 20, which happened twice (Chargers at Bills and Cardinals at Rams), both games went UNDER.
The highest 2nd half total for Week 2, which is also tied for the highest 2nd half total of the season so far, was Chiefs at Steelers at 27.5 and it went OVER. The second highest total was 24 in two games, Browns at Saints and Lions at 49ers, and both went OVER.
Almost every trend was thrown out the window in Week 3 after the UNDER went 12-2-2 in 2nd half totals. The last 8 games on the NFL betting board all went UNDER in the second half.
Guess what though? The highest 2nd half total in Week 3 went OVER. It was 27.5 in Atlanta when they hosted the Saints and went into overtime. That one went OVER well before OT, with a total of 50 points being scored in the second half. The Patriots at Lions game also closed with a 2nd half line of 27.5, but that game bucked every trend known to football fans.
Two second half totals closed UNDER 20 in Week 3, the lowest since Week 1 at 17.5 (Titans at Jaguars) and 19.5 (Cowboys at Seahawks). Both went UNDER, which doesn’t come as a surprise with so many going in that direction.
While it’s tough to determine why a trend so one sided as the UNDER domination in Week 3 happened, the fact that every week is seeing the highest 2nd half totals going OVER and the lowest going UNDER is noteworthy.
The other trend coming from this is the late domination in the past two weeks when it comes to second half totals. Week 2 saw the last 5 NFL games on the board go OVER with the last 8 going UNDER in Week 3. Is this a coincidence, or is there something bookmakers are looking at incorrectly when posting lines and totals?
2nd half point spreads have been fairly close across the board so far this season. Week 1 had SEVEN games close at PK in the second half, with the favorites having a slight edge at 5-4 in games with a spread. Moving forward, the favorites went 9-6 in both Week 2 and Week 3, but 2nd half totals have been a different story.
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