Free Pick - MLB 2018 ALCS Game 3

The 2018 ALCS moves to Houston after the Red Sox and Astros split the opening two games at Fenway. This series has lived up to the expectations with the best two teams in baseball fighting for the opportunity to play in the World Series.

Game: Boston Red Sox (112-56) at Houston Astros (107-60)

When: 5:09 PM ET, Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas

Current Line: BOS +123 HOU -133 Total: 8.5

TV Coverage: TBS

Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (7-7, 3.66 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.78)

Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Sox after pitching 7 strong in Game 3 against the Yankees in the ALDS, helping his team to a 16-1 win in that one. Eovaldi allowed five hits and 1 earned run in that one while striking out 5 and walking none. He started one game against the Astros this season, giving up four earned runs on 7 hits, taking the loss.

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Dallas Keuchel last pitched in Game 3 against the Indians, getting a no decision, pitching 5 innings, giving up 4 hits and two earned runs, including a home run to Francisco Lindor. Keuchel made one start this season against the Red Sox, getting a no decision despite giving up nine hits and 5 earned runs in 6 innings of work.

These two teams can score seemingly at will, and I expect more of the same in Game 3. Looking at some recent trends, the total has gone OVER in 9 of the Red Sox last 11 games. On top of that, 6 of the last 7 games that Boston has played in Houston have seen the total go OVER. Staying with the OVER theme, the Astros have played to the OVER in 4 of their last 5 games.

Although 8.5 is a high total for a playoff game with two great pitching staff’s, my free pick for Tuesday’s ALDS Game 3 is OVER 8.5.

Free Pick: BOS/HOU OVER 8.5

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