Expert PGA Picks | 2019 BMW Championship

The 125 golfers that began the 2019 PGA FedEx Cup Playoffs last week at the Northern Trust Open have been trimmed to 70. That’s right, only 70 players will tee it up this week at the BMW Championship with hopes of finishing in the FedEx Cup Top 30. Just 30 players will be in the field for the Tour Championship.

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2019 BMW Championship

Where: Medinah Country Club (No.3), Medinah, Illinois

Par: 72

Length: 7,657 yards (7,002 meters)

Course Rating: 78.3

Slope Rating: 152

When: August 15th – 18th, 2019

Purse: $9,250,000

Winner’s Share: $1,620,000

Defending Champion: Keegan Bradley

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC


 

Doing some research for this event, I came across some info that was news to me. There is a total bonus pool of $70 million for the FedEx Cup, and the FedEx Cup champion now gets 15 million dollars! As well, part of that $70M includes a $10 million bonus called the Wyndham Rewards, which recognizes the top 10 players.

I didn’t do so well last week, with Adam Scott our top golfer, finishing 5th. DJ looked great going into the weekend, but couldn’t hold his form through the weekend. Check out my article for the 2019 Northern Trust Open.

Like you saw last week, when Patrick Reed came out of nowhere to win the Northern trust, these limited fields filled with the cream of the crop are tough to handicap. So much goes into choosing where the budget should go. Here are my picks for the 2019 BMW Championship.

 

 

Odds courtesy of America’s Bookie

Justin Thomas +1150

Justin Thomas has been the best player in golf this season without a win. In fact, he doesn’t have a win in his last 25 starts. He has appeared in 18 events this season with 12 Top 25’s and 5 Top 10’s. He missed only 2 cuts.

He has two consecutive T12, and a T11 at the Open the week before that. With the length of #3 at Medinah, finding JT 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, I really like his odds at +1150.

Rory McIlroy +700

Brooks Koepka (+650) is the favorite this week, but Rory is a close 2nd at +700. You know I don’t like to go chalk, but sometimes the numbers don’t lie. One thing I do when handicapping golf events is look at the course, how it is built and what golfers need to get around it LOW.

Watch for Rory to go low at Medinah

Watch for Rory to go low at Medinah

This week, due to length and a somewhat low number of hazards, I value Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Putting.

Here’s where Rory fits on these stat categories:

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 1st

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee: 1st

Driving Distance: 2nd

Strokes Gained: Putting: 22nd

At +700, there is still money to be made betting Rory. If you follow by basic budget guide of $500 total budget, spending $100 on 5 golfers, if Rory wins, you’re still up $300. I think Rory has a great chance to win and will put 2 units on him, betting $200, raising my budget to $600. If you do that, you will profit $1000 this weekend.

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Billy Horschel +4000

Although you won’t find Billy at the top of the aforementioned stat categories, he does have two things on his side: Heart and a flat stick.

I had Billy on my list last week because he’s known to pick his game up this time of the year. He is currently 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting, up 9 spots from last week after he led the Northern Trust in that category.

Billy is playing in the Pro-Am with the ever charming and beautiful Katie Kearney. Kearney is a blonde bombshell model that may be best known as the ex-girlfriend of Instagram famous Bob Menery. She is sure to have Billy’s gonads on fleek.

Other golfers I like this week:

Dustin Johnson +1150

Tony Finau +3000

Picks by Joe Berra

Posted August 14th, 2019

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