Early Super Bowl Betting Tips
The NFL is the most heavily bet league in the United States and the Super Bowl is the biggest single-day betting event of the year. It no longer matters if you posted a winning percentage in the regular season. You can also put aside any wins or losses sustained in the three rounds of the NFL playoffs. The entire season all comes down to one final chance to beat the online sportsbooks or your private bookie come Super Bowl Sunday.
One game, but literally hundreds of ways to bet on it. The New England Patriots are anywhere from 1.5-point to 2.5-point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams depending on where you bet the games. The total line for Super Bowl LIII opened at 57.5 points and it currently sits anywhere from 57 to 58 points across the board of the top online books taking action on the game.
Have you been following ATB’s Pick of the Day? Joe and Brad have been beating the bookie.
Given just how close this matchup is expected to be, a moneyline bet on either team becomes a viable way to bet this game. The best moneyline on the Patriots sits at -126 all the way up to -140 on the high end. The best return on betting the underdog Rams would be +120 falling to +112.
When you take into consideration how much money will be bet on this game by the time kickoff rolls around in Atlanta on Sunday, Feb. 3, all these betting lines are subject to change at a moments notice. Unless there is a betting line in play right now that you simply cannot resist, the Super Bowl is the ultimate wait and see sports betting event. Each and every movement will cause a change reaction that will have betting impacts across the board.
Find some more info in last week’s article, NFL Championship Games | Betting Quarters
If the spread jumps a half point in New England’s favor, that is going to spike the moneyline return on the Rams in their favor. If the total line drops a half point, that could open the flood gates to a huge influx of money going towards the OVER in a game that could easily turn into a shootout.
Taking the wait and see approach to betting the actual game is just a small part of the equation. Two-play parlays are also huge with the natural tendency to go with the favorite on the side and the OVER on the total line. If this is part of your betting strategy, you want to get the two best numbers possible before pulling the trigger on an actual real money bet.
The biggest betting aspect of the Super Bowl is the pages and pages of betting props that will be released in conjunction with all the action both on and off the field of play. If you are looking to bet the OVER/UNDER on how long it takes to sing the National Anthem then simply flip a coin. When it comes to all the scoring, team and individual player props released, there is always some solid betting value to be found by digging deep into the posted numbers.
With facts, stats and betting trends compiled for each team over the first 18 games they have played this season, there is more than enough information to break down this matchup. The individual storylines run deep for both teams as well as for many of the key playmakers on both sides of the ball. Weighing current form against season-long accomplishments could open the door for some high-value prop bet plays depending on the posted odds.
For example, Rams’ running back Todd Gurley was the third-leading rusher in the NFL during the regular season. After gaining 115 yards on 16 carries in a Divisional Round win against Dallas, he was held to 10 yards on just four carries in Sunday’s NFC Championship against New Orleans. It is hard to see Los Angeles winning this game unless Gurley resumes his place as a top weapon in the offensive scheme.
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