Early Line Over Reactions for NFL Week 4
The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league like no other league in professional sports, but sometimes over reactive betting lines and public reaction will provide you with a ton of value. With only one game left in Week 3, lets look at some early line over reactions for Week 4 in the NFL.
Vikings @ Rams | Thursday, Sept. 27 | Rams -6.5
Despite completing 40 passes, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings could only manage to score 6 points against the lowly Buffalo Bills in Week 3. The Bills closed as a huge 17-point road dog, going on the win SU 27-6, holding the Vikings to only 14 rushing yards.
Not having starting running back Dalvin Cook no doubt hurt their game plan, but the Vikings have been thought of as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bills led 27-0 at the half, and held the Minnesota offense to one touchdown all game.
The Rams went to 3-0 on the season with a 35-23 victory in the Battle of LA. QB Jared Goff threw for 354 yards for the second consecutive week, spreading the ball around with four different pass catchers finishing with 4 or more receptions. The Rams are 3-0 ATS this season.
This was your typical trap game for the Vikings, and being without Cook and DE Everson Griffin didn’t help matters. Mike Zimmer is a great coach and the Vikings have a very good squad, so expect a major rebound on Thursday night in Los Angeles. Cook vows he will play in Week 4.
Don’t forget that the Rams lost defensive backs Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters to injury in Week 3, and have a short week and both have been deemed OUT already. Even though the Rams may have the deepest team in the NFL, even they will not be able to make up for those two losses when they play against a Vikings offense that has plenty of talent in Cook, Diggs and Thielen.
I predict the line moving closer to 3 or 4 before this one kicks off Week 4. It opened at 7 at some Vegas shops Sunday night, but was quickly bet down to 6.5. It may provide a great middling opportunity with the Rams most likely pulling out the win in a close game. Watch this one close as the week moves along, but get in now on the Vikings at +6.5 before it moves.
Lions @ Cowboys | Sunday, Sept. 30 | Cowboys -3
I’m going to mix things up a little with this one, because this is more of an under reactive line. Coming into the season, Lions’ fans had reason to be optimistic with the hiring of a big name coach and upgrading their running game through the draft and free agency.
They looked terrible in Week 1, and looked to find something late in San Francisco in Week 2 but their huge Week 3 win over the Protégé and the Patriots in Week 3 may have been the kick start the Lions needed.
They finally got a running back over 100 yards rushing, the first time since Reggie Bush did it on Thanksgiving of 2013, when rookie Kerryon Johnson went for 101 in the 26-10 win over New England. On top of that, the Lions defense held Tom Brady to 133 passing yards and the team to 89 total rushing yards.
Maybe even more impressive than all that for the Lions was the play of the offensive line, giving Matthew Stafford a clean pocket, allowing only 1 QB hit (Wise sack) and opening huge running lanes for their running backs.
The Seahawks (1-2) got their first win in Week 3, beating the Cowboys (1-2) 24-13. Although the Cowboys looked good in Week 2 vs. the Giants, this Dallas team just isn’t that good.
They have a very good defense, but the offense needs a lot of work. Geoff Swaim was the reception and yards leader for the Cowboys in Week 3 with 5 catches for 47 yards. Enough said. The Cowboys looked like a different team at home in Week 2, and maybe that is why they are a 3-point favorite.
Like the Vikings vs. Rams game above, get in on the Lions early at +3, and watch this one close around PK. Even though the Patriots are not the Patriots of old, they aren’t THAT bad of a team, and a little more credit should be given to the Lions in Week 4.
Get on these two games before these lines get closer to where they should be. Jump on these lines and thank me later in the week. As the week goes on, I’ll be following up on Week 4 line movements, and trying to find value for you to beat your sportsbook.
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