The NBA All-Star break is the one time during the regular season where the betting lines are set well in advance of the first round of games following the brief stoppage of play. There are a few interesting matchups on this Thursday’s NBA slate with value betting the underdog. However, the one that stood out the most for me was a Pacific Division clash between the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors.
Before we get into it, take a look at the Updated NBA Championship Odds.
Sacramento has been one of the bigger surprises this season at 30-27. It comes off the break in ninth place in the Western Conference and just one game out of the eighth and final playoff spot. This is a team that has not qualified for the NBA postseason since 2006 and it has already won more games by mid-February than it did in eight of its last 10 campaigns.
Top Underdog Bet- Take Kings +13.5 at Warriors
Tip off for Thursday’s matchup at Oracle Arena has been set for 10:30 p.m. and Golden State has been set as a heavy 13.5-point favorite. This will be the fourth and final meeting between the two Pacific Division rivals this season.
The Kings have remained a solid betting team over the course of the year at 34-22-1 against the spread. They have covered in 13 of 28 road games and they have a 21-20-1 record closing as underdogs. They covered in the 120-118 loss to Denver last Thursday right before the break as 7.5-point road underdogs. Going back to a three-point road win against Memphis on Jan. 25 as a two-point underdog, Sacramento is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS over its last nine games.
As far as the season series against Golden State, the Kings have lost the first three meetings SU with a perfect 3-0 mark covering the closing number. They lost to the Warriors 117-116 in late November as 6.5-point road underdogs. In two games on their home court as seven-point underdogs in each contest, Sacramento lost both games by a combined nine points.
It would be a hard task to say the least for the Sacramento Kings to come off the break with a SU road win against the best team in the West. However, you know they are going to play Golden State tough for all four quarters.
Even when the gap between these two teams was extremely wide, Sacramento has found a way to keep things close with a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings. It also has a 4-1 record ATS in its last five road games against Golden State.
See all the latest NBA odds here.
The Warriors have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since early January with a SU run of 16-2 in their last 18 games. They slipped up against Portland last Thursday in a 129-107 road loss as 2.5-point favorites to snap a SU five-game winning. Golden State will be well-rested and healthy heading into this Thursday’s matchup, but it has failed to cover the closing spread in six of its last seven games overall. It is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six home games.
Everyone knows what the Warriors bring to the table. The recent addition of DeMarcus Cousins to the lineup has made a great team even better. The Kings made a few moves at the NBA trade deadline to tweak their roster. The most notable addition was Harrison Barnes from Dallas. How these moves payoff in Sacramento’s quest to qualify for the postseason remain to be seen, but on face value, they should make the Kings a slightly better team.
Article by Dave Schwab
Posted February 18th, 2019