Dogs Ready to Bite the Books: Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
Sports betting basics dictate that the public tends to gravitate towards betting favorites in every major sport. The more popular the team, the more bettors leans that way when it is favored to win. The Oddsmakers setting the betting lines are also aware of this common phenomenon which is why you can usually find a bit more value in the numbers when it comes to betting underdogs.
For this week’s top biting dog ready to beat the books, we turn to Tuesday night’s NBA matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat.
Top Underdog Bet – Take Orlando (+2.5) at Miami
Through Monday night’s NBA action which basically represents the first quarter of regular-season schedule with all 30 teams playing at least 21 games, road underdogs have won 31 percent of the time straight-up and that winning rate increases to 48.7 percent against the spread. Underdogs in general have covered in 51.7 percent of the games played.
Orlando comes into this Southeast Division clash with just two straight-up wins in its last six games as part of an overall SU record of 11-12. It has gone an even 6-6 on its home court with a 5-6 SU record on the road. The Magic will be wrapping up the sixth and final game of their current road trip well rested after beating Phoenix 99-85 last Friday night as 4.5-point road favorites. They are 2-3 SU in the first five games, but a profitable 4-1 ATS during this trip.
Despite some issues winning games SU, Orlando is now 8-1 ATS over its last nine games and it has been able to cover in eight of its first 11 road games this season. Another plus for betting the Magic in Tuesday night’s in-state tilt against the Heat is their 12-7 record ATS this season closing as underdogs. They have been able to cash a winner as an underdog ATS in seven of their last eight games getting points on the closing spread.
The Magic opened the new season with a 104-101 victory against Miami at home as slight 2.5-point underdogs. The total stayed UNDER the closing 209-point line. Heading into Tuesday night’s 7:30 p.m. tip at American Airlines Arena, they are listed as 2.5-point road underdogs this time around. Their moneyline odds for this matchup have been set at +125 and the total is 208.5 points.
One of the factors that makes Orlando an attractive bet as an underdog is its ability to play defense. While it is ranked 25th in the NBA in scoring with an average of 105.8 points per game, it moves all the way to seventh in the league when it comes to points allowed (108.1) at the other end of the court. Center Nikola Vucevic is the team’s leading point scorer (21.0) and leading rebounder (11.3). He is pulling down an average of 8.7 defensive rebounds a game.
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Miami comes into this division tilt at 9-13 SU with a 10-12 record ATS. The Heat have won their last two games at home against New Orleans and Utah closing as underdogs to post back-to-back wins for the third time this season. They have yet to win or cover in three straight all season long. Miami is 5-8 ATS on its home court this season and it has failed to cover in eight of 13 games closing as a favorite. The Heat have gone just 1-6 ATS this season in seven previous Southeast Division games.
Head-to-head in this matchup, Orlando has won six of the last eight meetings both SU and ATS including this season’s series opener on Oct. 17. The Magic also have a 3-1 edge both SU and ATS in their last four road games against Miami.
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