I was right on the money with last week’s pick riding the red hot Houston Rockets as road underdogs against the Toronto Raptors. The Rockets have won their last eight games straight-up while going 3-0 against the spread closing as underdogs.
For this Tuesday’s top NBA play on an underdog, I am going with the Minnesota Timberwolves as probable road underdogs in a Northwest Division tilt against the Denver Nuggets. These two teams are at opposite ends of the standings with 12 games separating the two. However, the betting strategy of riding a hot team ATS can sometimes be compared to going against a team struggling to cover.
Top Underdog Bet- Take the Timberwolves over the Nuggets
See today’s Pick of the Day…an NBA parlay betting the road dog.
Minnesota is still officially in the playoff race in the Western Conference at 32-35 SU overall, but it is a full six games out of the eighth and final postseason spot heading into Tuesday’s game. After getting past Washington by five points on Saturday night as seven-point favorites, the Timberwolves covered the 6.5 points at home in Sunday’s 103-92 victory against New York.
They are now 3-1 SU in their last four games with an even 2-2 mark ATS. Minnesota has not been all that great of a bet on the road lately at 0-4 ATS, but it was able to cover against Milwaukee back on Feb. 23 ahead of last Tuesday’s SU win against Oklahoma City in two games against tougher competition.
A 0-2 start SU and ATS against Denver in the season series might be another red flag, but the combined margin of victory was just three points on a very tight closing spread for each of those matchups. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against the Nuggets.
Minnesota has proven it can play Denver tough and I believe that will be the case again this Tuesday night in a late 10:30 p.m. tip at the Pepsi Center. This is part of TNT’s doubleheader of NBA betting action that night.
Playing without All-Star center Carl Anthony Towns is not an ideal situation, but if he is unable to go on Tuesday night due to an injured knee, it would move the spread more so in Minnesota’s favor to actually add value to this play. Listed as day-to-day, it could come down to a game-time decision.
The main reason I am going with the T-Wolves in this division clash is Denver’s current form at 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) over its last five games. This includes losses to Utah and New Orleans as a favorite at home. The Nuggets closed as seven-point road underdogs in last Friday’s 122-105 loss to Golden State.
One bet that has cashed in on a steady basis all the way back to a road win against Dallas on Feb. 22 is the total staying UNDER in Denver’s last eight games. That could be another good way to bet this game or as a parlay with Minnesota covering.
The Nuggets are still the second-best team in the West at 43-22 SU and just 1.5 games out of the top seed. However, they blew a golden opportunity to completely close the gap with the Warriors, who have stumbled to a 2-4 SU record in their last six contests.
One of the other aspects of this matchup in Minnesota’s favor is the tight defense in past meetings. Denver is ranked seventh in the NBA in points allowed (107.3). The Timberwolves are much farther down the list with a points-allowed average of 113.1, but they have been able to hold the Nuggets to 107 points or less in each of the last four meetings.
Article by Dave Schwab
Posted on March 11th, 2019