ATB Free Pick | 2019 Kentucky Derby

Justify, was one of a kind, and to suggest even the hint of their being an equal just might be a stretch. Last years Triple Crown winner was a special horse indeed but that doesn’t take anything away from this year’s Kentucky Derby.



Event: 145th Kentucky Derby

Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

When: Post Time: Saturday, May 4th, 2019, 6:50 PM ET


The Kentucky Derby is called the “fastest two minutes in sports”. It should be called “the greatest two minutes in sports”. Whether or not you are into horse racing, the Kentucky Derby is always a must-see event. Not only is the venue famous for horse racing, it’s famous in recent times for trainers.


Bob Baffert has a unique gift when it comes to finding the right horse, Baffert is the Michael Jordan of horse racing, everything he touches turns to gold. The odds of winning the Triple Crown were stacked against Justify as he became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year old! That’s an astonishing statistic, and one that’s hard to overcome. Again, Baffert!

Bob Baffert may be the best best at the 2019 Kentucky Derby

Bob Baffert may be the best best at the 2019 Kentucky Derby

Baffert Wins:

American Classics wins:
Kentucky Derby (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018)
Preakness Stakes (1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2015, 2018)
Belmont Stakes (2001, 2015, 2018)
United States Triple Crown (2015, 2018)

Breeders’ Cup wins:
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (1992, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2016)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1998, 2007)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (2002, 2008, 2013, 2018)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint (2011)
Breeders’ Cup Classic (2014, 2015, 2016)

International stakes wins:
Dubai World Cup (1998, 2001, 2017)
Dubai Golden Shaheen (2015)

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds:

Game Winner – 9-2, Roadster – 5-1, Improbable – 5-1, Maximum Security – 8-1, Tacitus – 8-1, Code of Honor – 12-1, Win Win Win – 12-1, War of Will – 15-1, By My Standards – 15-1, Tax – 20-1, Vekoma – 15-1, Plus Que Parfait – 30-1, Cutting Humor – 30-1, Haikal – 30-1, Long Range Toddy – 30-1, Spinoff – 30-1, Country House – 30-1, Bodexpress – 30-1, Gray Magician – 50-1, Master Fencer – 50-1

It probably looks as if we are big fans of Bob Baffert, we are, and for one reason – Two Triple Crowns. We are certainly not saying that he is going to win another Triple Crown, but who would you make the odds-on favorite to win another?

The Triple Crown has been won just 13 times and until 2015, there had not been a winner for 37 years. We must say, Bob Baffert knows how to find a contender and if any trainer has a chance to win at least this years Derby, then it’s a Baffert horse.

Baffert has a chance to tie the legendary Ben Jones with six Kentucky Derby wins, as he sends out “Game Winner” (9-2), “Improbable” (5-1), and “Roadster” (5-1).

We are not suggesting a first-place finish in this race, that is not what we are saying. What we are suggesting is this:

  1. Find a prop that says “a Baffert horse wins” bet that prop.
  2. Play all three Baffert horses “in the box”.

The Probability of a Baffert horse winning the Kentucky Derby is much greater than losing the Derby. Find a great offshore racebook and have fun with this one. There are a few great horses in this years contest and it will be a close finish but the probability of a Baffert horse winning, it’s simply to great to not bet on.

Pick by Brad

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