An insight by Randall MacMurphy
The phrase “The ladies love the long ball” might be true 99 out of 100 times, but at this week’s 2020 PGA Championship, the ladies might just be happy with finding the hole….let me explain.
Welcome to TPC Harding Park.
A municipal course located in the Western part of San Francisco with a hefty price tag of $35 for residents to play this beautiful course. It is home to the first major of this 2020 PGA Tour season.
2020 PGA Championship: TPC Harding Park Course Guide
Now you may be asking yourself why is the drive not so important this week? Well, simply put if you miss the fairways you will be in above ankle high grass, making getting even a par from this a tough task.
Let the “Big Dog” Lie
This week we will let the “big dog” lie and break out the irons. Breaking out the irons is a much smarter play for control, and accuracy on the course and will result in a much better score.
There’s not much better at accuracy then Webb Simpson (+$2,500 to win), who ranks 19th overall driving accuracy (67.9%) and averages 297 yards off the tee. Not bad at that price for sure.
The key to having a successful weekend betting golf with the book should be focusing on players who have left the woods at home and are playing mostly irons in their bag from the fairway. Now once on the fairway, the approach shot will be key. Landing on these greens out of position, which will be running at least 12-14 on the Stimpmeter, will bring 3 putting in play more often then not.
Ok, I know what your saying “What about Tiger?”
When it comes to the modern Tiger Woods it’s basically a coin flip on which Tiger shows up.
There are some plays that seem to favor cashing in with him. Tiger Woods to finish in the Top 20 has good value at +150. In 7 majors since the 2018 US Open, Tiger has had 3 Top 10 finishes (1 win at the 2019 Masters) a T21 and 3 missed cuts.
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The only concern I see is his accuracy. As of late, with a 58.2% driving accuracy, accurate wouldn’t describe his season so far. However, as a coin flip and a good price, I’d take it. After all it is Tiger Woods. Ya never know.
Despite the narrowing of this course and the speed of the greens I think there will be some low scoring going on. The pros will adapt to this course quickly and “going low” should not be to anyone’s surprise.
A few scoring props I would heavily lean towards when betting the 2020 PGA Championship would be Low round UNDER 63.5 (+125) as well as Winning score UNDER 269.5 (-102). This course should allow for some low scores so why not take advantage of it and always remember as the great Carl Spackler once uttered “ Gunga Galunga”.