2014 Oral-B USA 500 Odds & Picks

By Scott

The Oral-B USA 500 is on Sunday night on ESPN and will be hosted at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are only two races left to qualify for the Chase. I love this new format, as every race down the stretch has huge implications for the bubble drivers.

Odds to Win the Oral-B USA 500

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We have five drivers that are paying under 10/1 odds this weekend in Atlanta. Brad Keselowski, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are all paying 6/1 odds and the favorites to win the race. Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano round up the top five in the market.

Brad Keselowski 6/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Kevin Harvick 7/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Kasey Kahne 15/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Larson 18/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Carl Edwards 30/1
Greg Biffle 30/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Brian Vickers 50/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Paul Menard 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
Justin Allgaier 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Martin Truex Jr 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 25/1

2014 Oral-B USA 500 Preview

Kyle Busch (10/1) has been the best driver on this track in the L2 years. Busch won this race last year and he finished in 6th place the year prior, but he has often struggled many years here. He doesn’t need to win and I don’t expect him to repeat.

Out of the three favorites, Jeff Gordon (6/1) is the most deserving. He has been in great form this year and he has always done well in Atlanta. Gordon has finished in the T10 in 11 of the L14 races here, which includes a win in 2011 and a 2nd place finish in 2012.

Kevin Harvick (7/1) won his first career in Atlanta back in 2001, but he has never been back in the winner’s circle. Harvick has been in the T10 in 6 of the L7 races on this track including a 2nd place finish in 2009. Last year he ended up in 9th place and never led a lap.

Last week’s winner, Joey Logano (8/1) finished in 2nd place in this race last year and led for 78 laps. That’s why his price is so short, but if you look past last year he has typically done poorly in Atlanta. He has a 22.57 career average finish position in 7 races here.

Martin Truex Jr (100/1) has had some past success in Atlanta. He finished in 4th place in 2012 and 3rd place last year. He led the race for 40 laps in 2012. This year Truex Jr has struggled and he doesn’t have a T5 finish, but with a win he could qualify for the Chase.

That’s what’s so great about the new format where a win will guarantee you a spot. I don’t expect Truex Jr to win the race, but his odds to finish in the T5 will be enticing considering he has finished in the T5 in Atlanta the last two years in the race.

I’m going with Matt Kenseth (10/1) to win the race. He doesn’t need to win, as he has a fairly comfortable point lead over the few drivers behind him, but he doesn’t have a win yet this year. Kenseth has been in better form lately including 3rd place last week.

Kenseth has never won on this track, but he has 14 finishes in the T10 in 25 career races in Atlanta. This is a track that Kenseth has done well on and he has turned it up lately before the start of the Chase. It’d be shocked if Kenseth ends the year winless.

· My Picks: Matt Kenseth +1000

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