Wimbledon Day 12

 The Men played their Semis Friday and there was one surprise as Federer took out Djokovic in 4 sets. We didn’t think the old guy had it in him. We thought that he’d win a set or 2 but not win the match. We thought that in a few years he might make a run like Connors did, but Federer showed he is still alive and well, especially at Wimbledon.

In the other match Murray finally broke through and made it to the Finals beating Tsonga in 4 sets. After the match Murray had a look like all the pressure is off now, “Thank you Lord.” If he dies tomorrow he will still be the first Brit in many years to make the Final. Nobody can ever take that from him. So how this will translate into the Final remains to be seen. When I finally made it through to my first Final I felt TOO good and was just happy to be there and didn’t really care if I won or not. The next time I was in a Final, I learned from my mistakes and never lost a Final again. Will Murray play with freedom, will he play with too much freedom, will he be tight, or will he play like he did in the first 2 sets Friday, just focused on winning one point at a time. The other thing to consider is how Federer will react, we feel that Roger we be “as light as a feather” and play his best game. If that is the case it may not matter how well Murray plays.

The Women will play their Final on Saturday morning and Serena is -650 over Radwanska +475. If Serena plays as well as she did on Thursday she will win this match going away, but again the question is how well she will handle the moment. It’s been a while since she’s won and maybe she will be nervous. Also, will Aggie handle her first Final with fear or conviction? We feel that Serena will be tight and so will Radwanska. We don’t look for a great match, pretty sloppy. Radwanska will not give Serena the pace that Azarenka did. It will be closer then you think and you may want to place a value bet on Aggie, but we see Serena coming through 7-5 7-6, and if Aggie can play slightly better than we think she will, she can win a set or 2.

We are still up $850 and we are calling up America’s Bookie to bet over 19 games (-115) and also taking a flyer on Radwanska at +475. We should at least break even and if not, we are still way ahead for the fortnight.